Warning! Before Powell's speech, are bears really coming? Can BTC still buy the bottom?

Nakamoto 2025-10-29 20:58 96502人围观 BTC

"Are the bears coming back? Will Powell's speech tonight trigger a big plunge? ”The backstage news is almost blown up, especially the brothers who have experienced the big drop on October 11th. They are afraid of being short-changed and trapped in the fun

“Are the bears coming back? Will Powell's speech tonight trigger a big plunge? ” The backstage news is almost blown up, especially the brothers who have experienced the big drop on October 11th. They are afraid of being short-changed and trapped in the funds they hold.

Tonight at 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech can be called a "market judge". It combines macro expectations, on-chain capital movements and large institutional operations to explain the current situation through five core issues, and attaches a direct operational guide.

1. Give accurate information first: The bear is not coming, but be wary of short-term fluctuations

Direct conclusion: The bear has not come, and the probability of BTC's long-term rise is much greater than its fall, but Powell's speech may trigger short-term shocks.

The core logic supporting the bullish trend is the general trend of easing. The market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of October, and will cut interest rates again in December. There will be two interest rate reduction windows in the first half of next year. Loose monetary policy has always been a "stimulant" for risk assets, and the crypto market will naturally benefit.

Looking at the most authentic on-chain data, two signals are very convincing: First, BTC continues to flow out of the exchange, and it is obvious that it has been quietly bought and locked up by big funds.； Second, stablecoins continue to flow into exchanges, indicating that OTC funds are gaining momentum. From the moment of "out" to the moment of "in", the preference of funds for BTC has become clear. However, we must be reminded that the market differentiation is obvious - when BTC rises, it is difficult for copycats to follow the rise, and when BTC falls, copycats fall even harder. This is a typical feature of the current situation.

2. How to allocate positions? 50% of positions anchor BTC to stabilize military morale

In chaotic market conditions, positioning is the key to survival. The core logic is "emphasis on certainty and control of speculation". The specific ratio is as follows:

• BTC: More than 50% of positions

As the "ballast stone" of the crypto market, its on-chain transaction volume has increased by 32.1% in October. Whale addresses have accumulated a total of 681,000 holdings in 2025. Institutions are also frantically adding positions, and their resilience and upside space are the clearest. It is recommended to hold this part for the long term and not to do short-term swings.

• Second-tier mainstream coins: 20%-30% position

Prioritize configuration of SOL, BNB, and ETH. SOL leads the way in ecological activity, BNB has solid fundamentals relying on exchange traffic, and ETH staking income has stopped falling and rebounded by 5.8% in October. The three can balance returns and risks.

• Hedging and Speculation: Residual Positions

You can allocate a small portion to gold to hedge against black swan risks； Leave some change on the chain to track meme coins or hot spots, but keep in mind the "little fun". Special warning: The scam rate in the primary market is extremely high. Never "give away money" to unknown project parties.

• Other altcoins: no more than 10% position

Most altcoins lack practical applications and rely solely on conceptual hype. Once sentiment ebbs, they will plummet. 10% is the upper limit for trial and error.

3. How high can BTC rise? The long-term sword points to US$300,000

Regarding the target price, combined with capital trends and cyclical rules: it is conservatively estimated to be 150,000 US dollars by the end of this year, and it can reach more than 300,000 US dollars in the long term.

This judgment has solid support: while whales continue to increase their holdings, although old players in the currency circle are reducing their holdings, institutional funds are frantically taking over, forming a "big fund support" pattern. Looking back at history, the effect of capital accumulation after the 2024 halving has already appeared. Now the trend of institutions entering the market is even stronger, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through the previous high. However, it must be clear that the process is by no means a straight-line rise, and a short-term correction of 10%-20% is normal.

4. Can I still enter now? Look for 3 core targets

• Can I still enter? You can get in, but don't expect "floor price". The best time to buy the bottom was the sharp drop on October 11 and the correction period last week. Unfortunately, most people panicked and cut their stocks at that time. Although it is not the lowest point now, it is still in the early stages of the bull market, so it is not too late.

• What to buy? Priority is given to BTC, BNB, and SOL. These three are the "most certain" choices in the market - BTC is stable, BNB has a backing, and SOL has sufficient flexibility. But we must accept that: in the short term, prices may fall due to factors such as Powell's speech. No one can guarantee that "it will rise immediately after getting on the train." We are betting on the long-term general direction.

5. Fatal risks: Don’t be kicked out of the car if your position is liquidated

Even if you are bullish for a long time, you have to "survive" first. You must be wary of two risks:

1. Black swan plunge risk

A sudden plunge like that on October 11 may happen again, especially if Powell releases a hawkish signal. There has been a precedent of "a single sentence caused BTC to collapse by more than 5%, and 260,000 people liquidated their positions." You need to be mentally prepared in advance.

2. Risk of leveraged liquidation

If it goes up again in the future, if your position is liquidated midway, no matter how high the price is, it will have nothing to do with you. Remember: Only by investing with your own funds and without adding leverage can you withstand fluctuations and wait for the fruits of the bull market.

Final summary: The bears have not come, both macroeconomics and funds are on the long side, but Powell’s speech may cause short-term shocks. There is still a chance to enter the market now. The position should be anchored with more than 50% BTC, paired with BNB and SOL, and the copycats and leverage should be strictly controlled. The market never lacks opportunities, but what it lacks is the patience to withstand fluctuations. I wish brothers to hold on to their positions and get the market price.
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