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1. Real-time market conditions: The price picture during the shock and fall As of 17:00 on October 29, 2025, the price of Bitcoin showed a volatile and weak trend. Different data sources show that the current price fluctuates between $113,000 and $115,000: CoinMarketCap’s latest quote is $103,452, a 24-hour decrease of 1.22% ; Data from Bijie.com shows that the price has fallen from the daily high of US$116,086 to US$114,736.82, a 24-hour drop of 0.4%, the market value has shrunk to US$2.28503 billion, and the 24-hour transaction volume has reached US$47.44 billion. The price trend during the day showed obvious see-saw characteristics: it briefly exceeded the $116,000 mark in early trading, but fell quickly after encountering selling pressure, hitting a low of $113,483.30, with a 24-hour volatility of 2.29%. In terms of trading volume, there has been a trend of "price and volume falling" in the past 4 hours, and market activity has dropped significantly, reflecting investors' wait-and-see mood before key prices. 2. The long-short game: a battle between three forces The current market is playing out a triple game between institutions, whales and leveraged traders, which has become the core driving force of price fluctuations. Institutions bucked the trend and formed support: Institutions represented by Strive continued to increase their holdings. They recently purchased 72 Bitcoins at an average price of US$114,304, with a total holding of 5958 Bitcoins. This is consistent with the strategy of listed companies such as MicroStrategy - viewing price corrections as opportunities to build positions. In August, it increased its holdings by 3081 coins at an average price of US$115,829. This type of long-term funds provides implicit support for the market. Whale selling creates short-term pressure: On-chain data shows that an ancient whale recently transferred 5,000 Bitcoins (worth over $500 million) to the exchange to exchange for Ethereum, triggering spot selling pressure. At the same time, short-term holders concentrated on profit-taking at the $116,000 mark, and the selling of 18,700 Bitcoins further strengthened the resistance level. Leveraged bulls were purged: the derivatives market became the main battlefield for long and short strangulation, with long liquidations reaching US$195 million within 24 hours, accounting for 83% of the total liquidation. What is even more alarming is that the current long-short ratio of large investors is as high as 2.3 times, and overcrowded long positions may trigger a new round of liquidation. 3. Technical warning: short signals continue to strengthen Technical indicators and K-line patterns both released bearish signals. The 4-hour K-line shows that the price has broken through the previous low, formed a "shooting star" pattern and then closed the negative line. The MACD indicator has a dead cross, the histogram has turned from positive to negative, and the air force continues to strengthen. In terms of the moving average system, although MA10 is still above MA30, the price has fallen below the short-term moving average cluster, showing a downward trend. In terms of key price levels, the current support level is concentrated in the range of US$112,000 to US$110,000. If it falls below the support level of US$109,800, it may trigger bears to attack the target level of US$106,000.; The resistance level is stable at $116,300, which has become the watershed between short-term bulls and bears after many failed attempts. In addition, the divergence between volume and price continues, and the price correction is accompanied by shrinking trading volume, indicating that the market lacks rebound momentum. 4. Market Sentiment and Prospects: Direction Choices Amid Divergence The current market sentiment is obviously divided. The Greeks.live community briefing shows that despite the firm price performance, traders are generally bearish, seeing downside risks outweighing upside opportunities. However, long-term indicators are still optimistic, and the hit rate of the bull market signal list containing 30 macro indicators is 0/30, suggesting that the bull market cycle may not be over yet. For investors, in the short term, they need to focus on the defense of the $112,000 support level. If it falls, it may trigger a chain stop-loss reaction.; In the long term, it is necessary to track ETF capital flows and changes in institutional holdings. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the current price is still 11% undervalued compared to the fair value of US$128,400, and there is room for valuation repair. In addition, the high-interest staking activities launched by platforms such as MEXC may attract some funds to enter the market in the short term, but it is difficult to change the core trend of the market. |