BTC is experiencing a "structural test"!

Nakamoto 2025-10-31 17:58 50361人围观 BTC

WeChat has been locked up in a dark room. If the message has not been replied, please contact DingTalk first: Invisible battle of supply and demand: BTC is experiencing a "structural test". The distribution of long-term chips has always been a key indicat

WeChat was locked up in a dark room. If the message is not replied, please contact DingTalk first:

The invisible battle between supply and demand: BTC is experiencing a “structural test””
The distribution of long-term chips has always been a key indicator we use to measure the transformation of market supply and demand. When supply surges and prices rise simultaneously, it means demand is strong enough to fully absorb excess supply and push up prices step by step. On the contrary, when supply strengthens but prices slump, it indicates insufficient demand, and continued distribution puts pressure on the market. So now it falls into the latter category. On October 30, 40,000+ BTCs held for more than 6 months changed hands (most likely sold), maintaining an average daily rate of 2.50,000 BTCs in the past 7 days. This is a quite high figure. In the past two years, except when the market was booming and the mood was the most FOMO, other periods were lower than this scale.

Obviously, the current market is still feeling pressure on this, and overall demand cannot easily digest these excess supplies. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, what we need to see most at the moment is a reduction in supply ； For example, as shown in the blue dotted line in the picture, that is, when the average daily distribution amount is less than 1.50,000 BTC, the market should be able to bear it, and it is almost the end at this time.

We don’t know the specific reason why long-term holders (LTH) continue to distribute large amounts, but one thing is for sure: they are profitable, and the profits are huge! We can clearly see from the data in Figure 2 that the current realized profit and loss ratio of LTH is still at a high level, indicating that the profit when selling is huge. But with the oscillatory correction of BTC prices, this ratio is declining rapidly. Only when it falls below the warning line (red shaded in the figure) does it mean that LTH's realized profits have been compressed to the extreme. At this time, their selling power will be significantly reduced. In this way, the standard of “accommodation that the market can bear” mentioned above can be met. If measured by the engraved boat method, the two time points in June 2024 and February 2025 were at the same height as the current LTH profit-loss ratio, and it took 1-1.5 months to finally drop below the warning line. In other words, we may need to persist for about another 1-2 months, and during this period, it is very likely that there will be entry opportunities for trend trading. I think those who can understand will understand naturally, and those who cannot understand will not need any further explanation.

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