Where will Bitcoin go?

Nakamoto 2025-11-3 11:31 6246人围观 BTC

On November 2, 2025, two seemingly contradictory messages in the financial market sparked heated discussions: On one side, the "Stock God" Buffett's Berkshire held record cash reserves, conveying vigilance against market risks.； On the other side, the tea

On November 2, 2025, two seemingly contradictory messages in the financial market sparked heated discussions: On one side is the "Stock God" Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds record cash reserves, conveying vigilance against market risks.； On the other side, the team of Tom Lee, a well-known analyst in the encryption field, issued a report, clearly bullish on Bitcoin, and believed that the encryption market has not yet peaked. These two pieces of news may seem to be "polar opposites", but in fact they reveal the market cycle patterns from different dimensions, and also hide the future investment logic of Bitcoin.

1. Buffett’s 381.6 billion in cash: not idle, but an “offensive and defensive layout based on cyclical predictions””

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's latest cash reserves reached US$381.67 billion, nearly US$400 billion, a record high. Behind this data is his core strategy of "avoiding risks first and then seizing opportunities" in his decades-long investment career. It is by no means a passive idleness of funds.

"Defense Preparation" Before the Crisis Looking back at history, Buffett maintained relatively high cash reserves before market turmoil such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic, and successfully avoided a systemic plunge. The current global financial system still centers on the U.S. dollar, and the underlying logic has not fundamentally changed. ； However, the valuation of U.S. stocks is highly dependent on a few high-tech companies, AI technology has not yet been implemented to generate actual profits, and the risk of bubbles exists objectively. Holding a large amount of cash at this time is to build a "safety buffer" in advance for possible market adjustments.
"Ammunition reserve" before bargain-hunting Buffett's classic investment philosophy is "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." He has successfully bargained for many times in the past (such as investing in Goldman Sachs in 2008 and deploying high-quality assets in 2020), all relying on sufficient cash reserves. Nowadays, the scale of cash has reached a new high. The essence is to wait patiently for low-price opportunities after the market correction - once a target appears that meets its valuation logic, it can quickly make a move, which is a proactive plan to "get ready to go".

If this logical judgment continues, and if Buffett's cycle prediction is accurate, the US stock market may face a sharp retracement in the next 1-2 years, and the macro economy may even fall into a recession similar to 2008.

2. Tom Lee’s team is bullish on Bitcoin: 5 major technical indicators support “has not peaked yet””

In contrast to Buffett's caution, analysts under Tom Lee concluded that "the encryption market has not yet peaked" through multiple technical analyses. The core basis is concentrated in 5 key dimensions:

The Elliott Wave structure is complete: Judging from the price chart, Bitcoin’s wave operation shows no obvious signs of peaking, which is completely in line with the cycle law of the wave theory, and there is no trend reversal signal.；
The technical signals are positive: the monthly Demark signal (trend turning indicator) shows that the market is still in an upward cycle, and the sideways MACD indicator (momentum indicator) indicates that funds are still building momentum and there is no kinetic energy exhaustion.；
The mid-term trend has not been broken: the upward trend line formed since 2022 is still solid, and has not been effectively broken through multiple callbacks. The trend support is strong；
Market sentiment has not reached a fever pitch: The current investor sentiment is far from reaching the "high score level" that marked the market's peak in history, and there has not been a frenzy scene in which retail investors follow suit and institutions frantically cash out.；
Multi-indicator cross-validation: The rainbow chart (valuation range indicator) shows that Bitcoin is still within a reasonable valuation range, and the MAT ratio (fund activity indicator) shows that market funds have not withdrawn on a large scale. Multiple indicators jointly confirm that the top has not been reached.

The report also pointed out that some opinions shouting that "Bitcoin has bottomed out" are more based on emotional judgments affected by US stock market fluctuations and short-term sideways trading, and ignore the core differences of this round of the market - the maturity of the regulatory environment and the large-scale entry of institutional funds. These two factors are reshaping the price logic of Bitcoin, making it less disturbed by short-term emotions.

3. Seemingly opposite, but actually unified: Bitcoin investment context in time difference

Buffett's "cash layout" and Tom Lee's team's "Bitcoin optimism" are not really contradictory, but a difference in perspective caused by "time cycle misalignment". Combining the two can clearly sort out the investment context of Bitcoin:

1. Short term: fluctuations are controllable, with the 200-day moving average becoming key support

In the short term, Bitcoin may undergo a correction due to sentiment on U.S. stocks, but the 200-day moving average (the lifeline of the long-term trend) provides strong technical support. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has been able to rebound quickly after pulling back to near this moving average many times in the past. For short-term investors, there is no need to be overly anxious about sideways fluctuations and can focus on the effectiveness of support levels.

2. Mid-term: The bull market pattern is difficult to reverse, and the cycle may be "late but not absent"”

From a medium-term perspective (from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026), Bitcoin's "four-year cycle law" still has reference value. Although there is a view that the traditional rule of "will fall after halving" may be invalid, Tom Lee's team believes that the bull market may be "late" due to changes in the market environment, but it will not be "absent" - improved supervision and the entry of institutional funds may make the bull market more stable rather than disappearing.

3. Long-term: Volatility narrows, “the last 10x opportunity” may be around the corner

In the long term, Bitcoin's volatility is gradually narrowing: the 2013 cycle increased by hundreds of times, dropped to more than a hundred times in 2017, and further shrunk to more than a dozen times in 2021. The increase in this cycle is expected to continue to decrease. Behind this trend is the maturity of the market brought about by the entry of mainstream people - when the market value of Bitcoin is close to or even surpasses gold, its volatility may converge with that of US stocks, and it will be difficult to repeat the tenfold increase.

This also means that before Bitcoin’s market value reaches gold levels, the current stage may be a key window to capture its “last 10x opportunity.” From a long-term perspective, even a short-term correction to US$50,000-80,000 is just an episode in the long-term trend. ； If you firmly believe that Bitcoin can reach the US$1 million target in the future, short-term fluctuations are not worth excessive panic.

4. Conclusion: Refuse to “just settle for the present”, the Bitcoin logic of long-termists

Financial market cycles are always cyclical, and real opportunities are often hidden in the contradiction between "short-term fluctuations" and "long-term trends." Buffett's cash reserves remind us to be wary of cyclical risks, and the analysis of Tom Lee's team reveals structural opportunities in the crypto market. What they have in common is that they respect the laws of cycles and refuse to be kidnapped by short-term emotions.

For Bitcoin, it is currently in the transitional stage of "mid-term upward and long-term maturity": if you keep a close eye on the short-term sideways trend, you may miss the layout opportunity in panic.； If we can anchor the long-term goal of "surpassing the market value of gold", we will be able to grasp certainty in the changing cycles.

Risk warning: This article is only for market analysis and opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto asset prices fluctuate violently, and investors need to carefully assess their own risk tolerance.

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Finally, I would like to remind everyone: This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investment is risky and decisions must be made with caution.

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