BTC/ETH is about to fall below the key support?

Nakamoto 2025-11-3 17:44 62299人围观 BTC

This month’s market has just started a "shock scene". There is only one core principle: Never place an order without risk control! The market is in a sensitive cycle of long-short competition, and blindly following the trend will only lead to "leeks" - th

There was a "shock scene" just after the market started this month. There is only one core principle: Never place an order without risk control! The market is in a sensitive cycle of long-short game, and blindly following the trend will only lead to "leeks" - the liquidation data of the entire network in the past 24 hours has sounded the alarm: 121,000 liquidations, with a total amount of US$217 million, of which long orders liquidated US$159 million, short orders liquidated US$57.7676 million, and a single large liquidation case of US$1.89 million occurred in TRUMPUSD alone. Rather than chasing ups and downs amid shocks, it is better to keep an eye on key signals and core data and patiently wait for clear entry opportunities.

1. Mainstream currencies: The long-short game is intensifying, and key support levels have become a "life and death line"”

BTC (Bitcoin): Death Cross Risk + Whale Hunting, $106,453 Sets Direction

The current technical aspect of BTC is showing strong contradictory signals. As of November 3, 2025, it was quoted at noon at $105,231, with a 24-hour decline of 5.3%. The daily line showed a bull trap pattern of "falling back after a false breakthrough".

- Technical analysis: The relative strength index (RSI) is only 43, below the 50 neutral line, the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) green histogram continues to shrink, the bullish momentum has significantly weakened, and it faces the technical risk of "death cross"； However, on-chain data shows that whale addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have continued to increase their holdings recently, suggesting that big funds are taking the opportunity to buy the dip.

- Key price points:

- Strong support: $106,453 (the center of recent shocks), $102,000 (mid-term trend support). If $106,453 falls, there is a high probability of falling to $102,000.；

- Core resistance: $112,550 (50-day exponential moving average). A breakthrough in heavy volume and a firm daily close at this position are needed to confirm the trend reversal.

- Operational suggestions: Do not buy the spot spot for the time being, wait for the price to fall back to the range of 102,000-106,453 US dollars, and arrange in batches. The first opening of a position shall not exceed 20% of the total position.； Contract transactions must have protection orders, stop loss set below $102,000, and streaking transactions are prohibited.

ETH (Ethereum): After three consecutive positive days, heavy volume fell, and $3,593 became the last line of defense for bulls.

ETH failed to continue its previous three consecutive positive trends. As of November 3, it was quoted at $3,731 at noon, a 24-hour drop of 6.9%. The trading volume increased by 30% from the previous day, exposing the shortcoming of insufficient buying momentum.

- Technical analysis: The current price is below the 7-day and 20-day simple moving averages, the short-term momentum is bearish, and it maintains a high correlation of 0.85 with BTC, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in mainstream currencies.； However, the weekly stochastic RSI is only 3.76, which is in the extremely oversold area. Similar situations in history have triggered a rebound of more than 20%.

- Key price points:

- Strong support: $3,735 (the lower edge of the recent consolidation platform), $3,593 (strong medium-term support). If it falls below $3,593, the next target will be $3,350.；

- Core resistance: $3,920 (previous shock high), $4,062 (50-day EMA position).

- Operation suggestion: Wait for the opportunity to buy low in the range of 3593-3735 US dollars, and focus on the progress of the implementation of the benefits related to the ETH2.0 upgrade.； The contract can only rebound with small positions, and the stop loss is set below $3,593 to avoid deep lock-in.

2. Altcoins: carnival and overturning coexist, don’t step on these targets!

ASTER (CZ’s “son”): 2 million dollars in heavy positions + 1.7 billion TVL, long-term holding is the core

This time, CZ no longer "verbal orders", but spent 2 million US dollars in real money to buy ASTER. The price was US$0.97 at the time of the tweet, and there was no previous "fall first and then rise" routine. As of November 3, the price was US$1.32, which was 36.1% higher than the opening price.

- Core data support: As the No. 1 protocol on BNB Chain, ASTER’s TVL exceeded US$1 billion in the first month of its launch, and stabilized at more than US$1.7 billion at the end of October. Daily trading volume exceeded US$2 billion many times, with the highest peak reaching US$70 billion.； The cumulative number of new users exceeds 1.9 million, the monthly active users are 300,000, the annual revenue exceeds US$60 million, and the revenue growth rate is as high as 700%.

- Risk warning: The current ratio of ASTER's OI (open interest) to trading volume is only 12%. There are short-term arbitrage and wash volume behaviors. It is extremely difficult to return to more than 2 US dollars in the short term.； Moreover, altcoins have fluctuated violently, with the maximum retracement reaching 45% in the past 30 days.

- Core strategy:

1. Position control: Only use “acceptable total loss” funds to participate, and the total position shall not exceed 5% of the total assets of crypto assets.；

2. Holding cycle: long-term holding on a yearly basis. Short-term speculators should be cautious to avoid being washed away by fluctuations of more than 20% in a day.；

3. Entry timing: If the price falls below $1.0, you can place a small position, and then cover the position after breaking through $1.5. Do not chase highs or place heavy positions.

High-risk warning: Don’t touch these 3 coins!

- GIGGLE: Short-term expectations have been completely exhausted, there is no follow-up positive support after being listed on Binance Spot, and the fee donation process is not friendly to CEX. As of November 3, its 24-hour trading volume was only 8.6 million U.S. dollars, a plunge of 89% from the initial stage of launch. There are obvious signs of capital flight. Position holders are advised to stop profits and leave the market in time.

- COAI: A typical "roller coaster" currency, it plummeted from a high of $20 to $1.2, a drop of 94%, with obvious characteristics of high control (the top 10 addresses hold 85% of the circulating orders). Although it belongs to the AI+ blockchain track and has achieved "computing power, models, and incentives on the chain," the number of liquidations in the past 30 days has exceeded 23,000, and the liquidation amount has reached 120 million US dollars. It is only suitable for small positions with less than 1% of total assets, and the stop loss is set below 1.0 US dollars.

- OKB: There has been no breakthrough after 73 days of consolidation. The current price is $42.3, down 18.7% from the recent high. The popularity of the X-chain ecology has faded, TVL has dropped 62% from the peak, and the average daily trading volume has shrunk to 820 million US dollars. If no new benefits are realized, there is a high probability that it will continue to trade sideways or weaken. It is not recommended to wait.

Potential track: Is the privacy coin craze coming to an end? ZEC soared 266% in a single quarter

The privacy coin sector has recently become the biggest dark horse. As of November 3, the total market value of the sector exceeded US$24 billion, with an increase of more than 80% in the past seven days, and the 24-hour trading volume was close to US$3 billion.

- Core target performance:

- ZEC: As the leader of the sector, it has increased by 488% since September 22, from US$46.2 to US$360, a quarterly increase of 266%； The current open interest reaches US$518 million, an increase of 1686% from US$29 million on October 1. However, the funding rate has been negative for 5 consecutive days (-0.0566%), and there is profit-taking pressure. ；

- DASH: rose 99% in October, quoted at $186 as of November 3, and the proportion of private transactions on the chain increased to 42%；

- RAIL: The price has increased by 87% in the past seven days, making it a "dark horse" target in the sector.

- Risk warning: The current follow-up coins (such as RAIL) have risen more than the leading ZEC, which means that funds are dispersed, the main line strength has weakened, and the popularity of the sector may have come to an end. Moreover, nearly 30% of the total supply of ZEC has been blocked, and the release of private trading demand is close to saturation. At this time, the risk of chasing higher is far greater than the profit. It is recommended that position holders move the stop loss up to $308 (the 50-day EMA position) to lock in some profits.

3. Niche targets on the chain: narrative driven, just trial and error by Ogura

- anon: The highest market value is 3.1 million US dollars, and the current price is 1.2 million US dollars. The narrative revolves around 4chan's "unpictured" well-known figures, and the niche themes lack substantial support. The volatility has reached 120% in the past 30 days, and the 24-hour trading volume is only 180,000 US dollars. The liquidity is extremely poor, and it is only suitable for small positions with "entertainment funds" to participate.

- Ghost: The highest market value is US$26.8 million, and the current value is US$21.3 million. It focuses on the Solana ecological privacy layer and has a certain scarcity in the track. As of November 3, TVL reached US$32 million, an increase of 45% from the previous month. However, depending on the overall popularity of the Solana ecosystem, if Solana pulls back, it is likely to weaken simultaneously. It is recommended that the position does not exceed 0.5%.

- sharks: increased from US$600,000 to US$2.8 million, currently US$1.8 million, the narrative is “6 AI autonomous transactions”, and the initial capital is only 1BNB. The concept is novel but its implementation is questionable. The turnover rate has reached 300% in the past 10 days. There are obvious signs of market control. It is only suitable for short-term fluctuations in small positions. The stop loss is set below US$1.5 million.