After the collapse of Bitcoin, what happened to those people who have not given up?

Nakamoto 2025-11-3 18:55 27874人围观 BTC

The global financial market has been violently turbulent, and Bitcoin has not been immune to it. On March 12, the price of Bitcoin collapsed, falling below the US$3,800 mark, the largest drop in the past six years. According to Coin data, the plunge that

The global financial market is experiencing violent turmoil, and Bitcoin is not immune.

On March 12, the price of Bitcoin collapsed, falling below the US$3,800 mark, the largest drop in the past six years. According to Coin data, the plunge that day caused more than 100,000 people to liquidate their positions, and the total liquidation amount across the entire network was US$2.93 billion, or approximately 20.5 billion yuan.

In the following days, although the price of Bitcoin rebounded slightly, it failed to recover the main losses. It was not until March 16 that the price of Bitcoin began a new round of plummeting, falling to $4,538 at the time of writing. The currency circle is filled with the atmosphere of a bear market, and investors of all sizes are in mourning.

Despite this, there are still a group of people who have not given up: some people believe that the increase in mining costs will prompt the price of Bitcoin to rebound, and the rebound will only be late and will not be absent.； Some people believe that Bitcoin production will be halved in May 2020, and prices will naturally rise as supply decreases. ； Some people believe that Bitcoin’s status as a hard currency in the hacker circle has not changed and there is no need to panic.

To give up or to persevere is a difficult choice.

I believe that costs will not be inverted for a long time.

“Bitcoin turned from bull to bear. To be honest, I didn’t expect it at all. ”Yang Shenghua was disappointed when he saw the plummeting price of Bitcoin. The 42-year-old Yang Shenghua is one of the partners of a Bitcoin mine in Yunnan.

Yang Shenghua was originally a "Beijing drifter" and became one of those who fled Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in 2016. "If I didn't buy a house in Beijing, I would have no sense of belonging and I would still be comfortable in my hometown in Chengdu. ”

That year, Yang Shenghua and his friends registered a technology network company and took on some corporate website and corporate APP development work to make a living. At that time, the Bitcoin market was booming, and a friend went to Yunnan to mine. With his kindness, Yang Shenghua also invested 470,000 yuan in shares.

Although he does not usually participate in the management of the mine, Yang Shenghua is still concerned about the cost line of Bitcoin. “I remember that in 2018, the price of Bitcoin fell below the mining cost, and our mine was shut down for a month or two. Fortunately, we did not give up completely, so we did not lose money in 2019. ”

Yang Shenghua once had high hopes for this year’s Bitcoin market, “Last year Bitcoin did not break through a new all-time high, and this year coincides with the halving of Bitcoin production. Everyone is optimistic that breaking through 20,000 US dollars will happen naturally. ”

Public information shows that Bitcoin mining output is halved every four years. The first output halving was achieved in May 2012, the second output halving was achieved in May 2016, and the third output halving is expected to be in May 2020, when the daily new Bitcoin output will be reduced from 1,800 to 900.

From the perspective of supply and demand, halving output will reduce supply, but from the perspective of mining farms, it will increase mining costs.

Yang Shenghua told Zinc Scale that in order to prepare for this production reduction, all partners initially reached an agreement in January this year to purchase S19 Pro to increase computing power. The current Bitcoin mining cost of the S19 Pro is about US$3,150 per coin. As long as the electricity cost, mining computing power cost and other factors remain unchanged, it is expected that the mining cost will theoretically double to about US$6,300 after the production reduction.

When the “black swan” comes, purchase plans are naturally postponed. Since the delay, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted, resulting in a serious inversion between the cost of mining and the price of Bitcoin.

“After the production reduction, a large number of old miners such as U8 and S9 will exit, and the supply will decrease and the demand will remain unchanged, which will naturally drive up the price. ”Yang Shenghua still has expectations for the future, “Bitcoin prices may fall below mining costs in the short term, but this situation should not last long. ”

The price of some mining shutdowns is not far from the price of Bitcoin.

In fact, Yang Shenghua has not forgotten the cost inversion in 2018, but he just does not want to believe that the nightmare will come again.

In this regard, Chen Qi, founder of cloud platform service provider AiCloudata, once said bluntly, "Not everyone can resist the impulse and temptation of the currency circle. In this smoke-filled battlefield, perhaps those killed will not be real speculators, but entrepreneurs who look to the future but are dazzled by profits. ”

Take advantage of the situation and wait for the bull market

In addition to mining farms, some firmly bullish investors also have high hopes for the halving of Bitcoin production.

Deng Yi, a stockholder who is also playing Bitcoin, told Zinc Scale, “Some people say that the halving market is the halving of assets. It’s ridiculous. This is purely bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls. ”

Deng Yi did some calculations: Bitcoin production was halved for the first time, and the price rose from US$5 to about US$1,000 in 18 months.； During the second halving, the price rose from $450 to nearly $20,000 in 18 months.

Bitcoin halving date is May 15, 2020

“Judging from historical rules, after the Bitcoin output is halved, an increase is inevitable. Many big Vs on Snowball also hold the same view. ”Deng Yi has recently bought the bottom at US$5,100. “From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is now in a bear market. There is no doubt about this. However, Bitcoin’s transition from bull to bear is very fast. You can buy with confidence when it falls, but you have to be careful when it rises. ”

Of course, some investors disagree.

Blockchain developer Wu Fengling said that the stock of Bitcoin has exceeded 18.27 million, and the increment to be mined is less than 3 million, and it will need to be mined until 2140. "Bitcoin has entered the stock market, and how much influence does the increment of 900 every day have? Old people in the currency circle more or less feel that the pricing power of Bitcoin is gradually shifting from the supply side to the market side, that is, it is in the hands of those predators who hoard coins. Therefore, the logic that Bitcoin production will definitely rise sharply after halving it does not hold water. ”

At the beginning of the global financial turmoil, Wu Fengling sold three-quarters of his Bitcoins. "When the situation is bad, risky assets will be sold first. Bitcoin is also a risky asset. It is not a safe haven asset at all. It is purely deceiving people." ”

Why not sell them all? Wu Fengling explained to Zinc Scale: "In the hacker circle, Bitcoin is still a hard currency. As long as this application scenario does not disappear, Bitcoin will still have circulation value. Maybe one day the market will come again, so we are not afraid of being trapped, but we are afraid of being shorted." ”

The mentality of the well-known investor "stock community" is also the same. "The money I invested in Bitcoin is to prevent the virtual currency from breaking out. If I completely lose money, a large number of people will overtake me on the wealth track. This is inappropriate." ”

Although their reasons for not giving up varied, they were ultimately on the same side.

Mining companies seek breakthrough

On the same front as them are mining machinery companies. Because the price of Bitcoin determines the attitude of the capital market towards it.

According to data from Qixinbao, Bitmain is the world's largest supplier of Bitcoin mining machines. It specializes in Antmining machines and owns multiple mining pools such as BTC.com and AntPool. It is currently applying to be listed in the United States, but there has been no result so far.； Canaan is the world's second largest supplier of Bitcoin mining machines, focusing on Avalon mining machines.

Canaan Yunzhi has been falling since its listing

The sluggish Bitcoin price has cast a shadow over Bitmain's IPO. Although Canaan has successfully gone public in the United States, its stock price has been sluggish since its listing. As of March 16, 2020, the stock price was US$3.37, down 74.08% from its historical high.

The reason has a lot to do with Bitcoin’s pain points.

First, the global regulatory attitude towards virtual currencies, led by Bitcoin, has become stricter, which has resulted in the compression of the living space of virtual currencies and also limited the performance growth potential of mining machine companies.； Second, the price of Bitcoin is unstable and prone to violent fluctuations, which also leads to large fluctuations in the performance of mining machine companies.

Therefore, both Bitmain and Canaan are looking for ways to break out.

At present, building AI chips has become a consensus, but the two methods of playing are different. A senior Internet observer told Zinc Scale, “Bitmain’s AI chips focus more on security and campuses, while Canaan’s AI chips focus more on smart homes. ”

For example, Bitmain Product Strategy Director Tang Weiwei once publicly stated: "AI computing is based on deep learning. Deep learning neural network calculations consume a lot of computing power and cannot be carried out without the support of a large amount of computing power. There is a large number of AI application markets in the security industry. ”

In fact, Bitmain has already announced the slogan "In the next five years, 40% of the company's revenue may come from the AI department." Canaan also admitted in its prospectus that "future revenue growth will largely depend on whether it can penetrate new markets other than Bitcoin mining applications, especially the artificial intelligence AI chip application market."

However, the current AI chip business is difficult to contribute a large amount of revenue in the short term. For example, in the first half of 2019, Canaan's Bitcoin mining machines and their parts accounted for 99.4% of sales. We have to admit that the road to breakthrough for mining machine companies is still bumpy.

There is no doubt that no matter where the price of Bitcoin goes in the future, there will always be a group of people who are unwilling to give up, eagerly looking for hope, and imagining that one day they can become the lucky ones in the currency circle.

But they also have to understand that the line between the lucky and the unlucky is sometimes unclear.

(At the request of the interviewees, Yang Shenghua, Deng Yi, and Wu Fengling are all pseudonyms)

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