Is BTC a double top? Hidden divergence? Is it bull or bear now? We were all expecting a crazy bull market in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the result surprised us. On October 11th, there was the largest liquidation in the history of the currency circle. So far, more market opinions are: the bull market is over! ! But is it really so? Can you refer to my article: Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market? But is it really so? Today, Yong Qi will take you to take a comprehensive look at the technical structure of BTC and the data on the chain.
Weekly: Top divergence of BTC pattern
Over the past week, BTC has performed a surprising trend on the weekly chart. After breaking through the all-time high, the market originally thought that it would usher in an "accelerating market".
But the fact is: prices continue to fluctuate, rise and fall, and trade sideways repeatedly.
Analysts generally point out:
On the current BTC weekly chart, there is a superposition of a double top structure and a hidden divergence signal.
The two appearing at the same time is like reminding the market that “there may be forks in the bull market. ”
Weekly: MACD has reached the top divergence. This is already an established fact. As for when will this volume-price divergence last? Will there be continued large-level divergence? What is certain is: the divergence will definitely be repaired, because it is a weekly level, there are only 4 K lines in one month, and only 8 in two months! Therefore, the short-term risks are not as big as imagined. BTC has been fluctuating at the level of 110,000 US dollars for almost a year. There has been no major breakthrough yet, and it is not ruled out that there will be a big rise in mid-December, and then the adjustment mode will start for about half a year. But if it is: short-term callback demand, then it will start a long period of downward shock and adjustment in the next time. The first position will be 96,000 US dollars, and the second position will be at the key position of 85,000 US dollars. If this situation develops, then it will be in line with what many people say: the bull market is over, and there will be no good market conditions in the next six months.The big market trend depends on: when will the QE of the United States and the United States start, and the amount of water release!Daily line: MA120 is always suppressedDaily line: It rebounded to around 115k many times and was suppressed. MA120 has played a great role in suppressing this position. If it cannot break through this position well in the past two weeks, the probability of falling next is more than: 80%. But if you look at the downward pins in the past three times, the lower negative lines are very long, indicating that the bottom-buying funds are still obvious. I wonder whether these funds are institutional ETF funds or big whales in the market?
First: The rebound position must be able to effectively break through 116k to be effective. If not, there is a high probability that it will be a false breakthrough and it will fall in the future! Second: Don’t touch altcoins at this stage, the risk is even greater!
Third: If BTC is on a downward trend, refer to two data. One is: the correction of 0.618, which is around 85k, and the other is: the shutdown price of mining machines is around 80k. These are two relatively extreme risks to control. Therefore, the daily level summary: Only when it effectively breaks through 116k can it be said that the general market is getting better. If it cannot be broken, it is likely to make a real second bottom, or a deeper bottom. MA120 moving average and MA200 bull-bear dividing line
Mding: Is it true?In fact, it’s a bit forced!The so-called double top structure:
If two high points are at similar positions and there is an obvious retracement in the middle, it constitutes a typical reversal signal. Once the "neckline" (that is, the line connecting the lows between the two highs) is broken, it will often trigger a deeper correction.
A similar pattern also appeared in the market in 2021, after which BTC fell by nearly 30% in the short term.
MA120, in this round of support, is still very strong.In the past year or so, it has played a key supporting role during the decline and has been touched several times. In the end, institutions bought the bottom at these positions.Upper resistance level: 125k to 127k, the historical breakthrough point. If it breaks through with heavy volume, there will be at least a 30-point increase.Key support level: 116k, it can effectively break through this level. In the short term, there is no need to panic!There are two key positions in the short term: 115k and 100k. If BTC falls below these two positions, don’t think too much, there will be a downward trend, and it is certain.BTC chip accumulation areaAs of November 2, 317.4w BTC have been bought in the narrow range of $105,000-$112,000, which is only $7,000, accounting for 15.8% of the total circulation.；Among them, the two highest huge bars are $110,000 (58.9w coins) and $112,000 (62.9w coins) respectively.This means that this is the most intensive entry point for large funds in the near future.
This is a disagreement! Some people left the game, while others were optimistic. “The market starts in despair, grows in disagreements, and dies in madness." Since there are funds entering the market, they can not only absorb the selling pressure, but also lock up liquidity in disguise, this should not be a sign that the cycle has turned bearish.In a real big top, there will be no disagreements, only consensus.It’s the consistent perception that “prices are too expensive” or “confidence has collapsed.”So here’s what I’ve determined for you: the current price range is definitely not the top!
Yong Qi's deep thinking: "risk education in the bull market"”
The biggest lesson I've learned over the past few years is this: Bull markets are not straight lines, they are curves.
Every reversal in the weekly pattern is actually a signal for the market to "shift".
In a real long-term rising cycle, don’t panic, don’t be blind, and know how to manage profits and drawdowns.
More important than simply "holding". Remember one sentence:
“Technical analysis is probability, not prediction. But it can give you a few more seconds to prepare before the risk strikes. ”
When Bitcoin’s weekly chart begins to speak, smart traders should first learn to listen.
This round of market may not be over yet, but the "pattern warning" is already flashing on the chart.
Next step, the decision lies with the market and also in your own hands.
Deep observation·Independent thinking·Value is more than price.
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Finally: Many of the opinions in this article represent my personal judgment on the market and do not constitute suggestions for your investment. If you don’t understand anything, you can scan the QR code and send me a private message on WeChat. WeChat: aswq518 Welcome everyone to follow the Wall Street Crypto Intelligence Bureau and don’t miss the latest in-depth investment research analysis of the currency circle:
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