The BTC bull market enters the "intermission"? Data reveals the real turning point time!

Nakamoto 2025-11-4 12:32 89103人围观 BTC

At the macro level, according to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with a probability of 74.7%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 25.3%. Looking forward to January 2025, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 57.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is 25.6%. This shows that market expectations for further easing continue to heat up, and improved liquidity may provide support for risk assets.

At the corporate level, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) announced its third-quarter financial report, with net profit falling to US$2.8 billion, a significant drop from the record US$10 billion in the previous quarter, but still slightly higher than analysts’ expectations of US$8.15 per share. Affected by the downward price of Bitcoin, the company's market value/Bitcoin net value ratio (mNAV) dropped to 1.2 times, the lowest since March 2023. Approximately 43,000 BTC were added during the quarter, with total holdings reaching 640,000, worth approximately US$69 billion. Despite the slowdown in holdings, the company maintained investor demand and continued to advance its currency purchase plan by raising the dividend on variable-rate preferred shares to 10.5%.

At the same time, former FTX CEO SBF posted on social platforms that FTX “never really went bankrupt.” He revealed that the bankruptcy administrator has achieved 119%-143% repayment to customers during the liquidation process, and about 98% of creditors have recovered 120% of their funds. After paying $8 billion in claims and $1 billion in legal fees, there is still $8 billion in funds remaining.

In terms of trading platforms, Eddie Zhang, president of DYdX, said that the company plans to enter the US market by the end of 2025 and launch spot trading services including Solana. Zhang pointed out that the improvement of the US regulatory environment is an important driving force for the company's layout. The SEC and CFTC have also recently discussed bringing perpetual contracts into the scope of domestic trading in the United States.

Coinbase’s financial report for the third quarter of 2025 was impressive. Transaction revenue reached US$1 billion, an increase of 37% month-on-month and almost double year-on-year. Ethereum transaction activity has increased significantly, accounting for 22% of the total transaction volume, and its revenue share has also increased to 17%. Although Bitcoin is still the main trading asset, its share has declined slightly. Coinbase increased its holdings of 2,772 Bitcoins this quarter, and the number of employees increased by 12% month-on-month. After the financial report was released, the stock price rose by 2.5% after the bell.

At the technical level, the Ethereum Foundation announced that a major upgrade "Fusaka" will be officially launched on the main network on December 3. This upgrade will implement more than ten improvement proposals to improve the scalability and security of Ethereum. This upgrade introduces PeerDAS technology and increases the block gas limit to 150 million units, which is expected to double the blob capacity.

At the macro institutional level, Standard Chartered Bank’s latest report states that in addition to stablecoins, the total market value of real world asset (RWA) tokenization is expected to rise to US$2 trillion by the end of 2028, approximately 56 times the current level. The report believes that Ethereum will become the core platform for RWA to be chained, and its network effect and stability are the key driving forces.

According to on-chain data, the Bitcoin turnover rate increased yesterday, and market sentiment was biased toward caution.

According to URPD data, 2.432 million Bitcoins were accumulated in the $104,500-$111,000 range.； There are 1.086 million Bitcoins accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range.

Taken together, Bitcoin is still in the bull market consolidation stage in the short term. If we refer to historical cycles, it often takes 1 to 1.5 months to fall from a high profit-loss ratio to a bottom range. At this stage, we may still need to wait another 1 to 2 months. After the distribution of long-term currency holders slows down, a new upward cycle is expected to restart.

Bitcoin has entered the second half of the bull market, and Xiao Dong’s community has laid out potential coins

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