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 On November 4th, at three o’clock in the morning, no one in the currency circle was sleeping. Bitcoin fell below 100,000 US dollars, Ethereum broke through 3,000 US dollars, and the entire network liquidated over 2 billion US dollars in 24 hours - 470,000 accounts were reset to zero. HTX’s last long order of 47.87 million US dollars evaporated directly, becoming the "champion's last words" on the liquidation list. This is not a technical correction or a short-term washout, but a collective disillusionment from narrative to reality. When the leveraged bubble was punctured by a K-line, the market finally revealed its most original face: cold, true, and never merciful.
01Three knives, inserted into the heart of the encryption market at the same time The first knife came from within - trust collapsed. On November 3, the veteran DeFi protocol Balancer had $116 million stolen due to a code vulnerability. This is not a new project running away, or a local dog returning to zero, but an infrastructure-level protocol that even Uniswap would call "predecessor" was hollowed out without anyone noticing. The next day, Stream Finance reported a loss of US$93 million. The official statement was unclear and the community was panicked. Two hundred million U.S. dollars, just say no. There is only so much money in the currency circle, and it cannot withstand repeated blood loss. The second knife came from Wall Street - the money ran away. BlackRock IBIT, this giant ETF holding nearly 100 billion U.S. dollars and 800,000 Bitcoins, had a net outflow of 715 million U.S. dollars for four consecutive days. On October 31, there was a single-day outflow of 149 million, setting an industry record. Fidelity, Grayscale, ARKB...no one is spared. Institutions are not "waiting and watching" but voting with their feet. They were once the promoters of the bull market, but now they have become the calmest executioners. The third knife, from Washington - drained of water. On the 35th day of the U.S. government shutdown, the Treasury Department's TGA account balance soared past $1 trillion, which is equivalent to draining $700 billion of liquidity from the market. The SOFR interest rate jumped 22 basis points overnight, and the use of the Federal Reserve's repurchase facility is approaching a record high. Powell said "possible interest rate cuts", but he was very honest - the era of high interest rates is far from over.
02The stories we once believed in are being shattered one by one Do you still remember the “spot ETF bull market” at the beginning of the year? Remember the political narrative that “Trump’s coming to power is good for Bitcoin”? Do you still remember the carnival of “DeFi Summer 2.0” and “Meme Coin Wealth Freedom”? These stories have made countless people rush into the market, increase their leverage, and put all in long orders. But the reality is: stories can be made up, but the data on the chain will not lie. In the past 30 days, long-term holders (LTH) sold a net 405,000 BTC, cashing out more than $42 billion. They are not retail investors or FOMO newbies, but old players who are lurking in 2023 or even earlier. They began to take profits in batches at a high of US$126,000. On the day of the "10.11 flash crash", they sold 52,000 ETFs in a single day. In the past few days when the ETF continued to lose blood, the average daily sales exceeded 18,000. Ironically, the real losers are not the giant whales, but the "Mesozoic" - those who hold 10 to 1,000 coins and have a book profit of 150%. They believed in the bull market and believed that "this time is different", but in the face of reality they chose to settle for nothing. And what about giant whales? Data on the chain shows that addresses holding more than 1,000 coins are quietly increasing their holdings.
03From "telling stories" to "reading financial reports", the market is becoming adult The crypto market is undergoing a painful "weaning" - weaning off its reliance on "narrative-driven" and turning to a "fundamentals-driven" reality. In the past, a Twitter influencer who shouted "Bitcoin rushes to 200,000" could achieve 100 times leverage.； If a project party sends an "airdrop notice", it can increase the market price by 300%. But now, no one believes it. Balancer’s loophole tells everyone: code is law, but law may also have bugs. The continued blood loss of ETFs declares: Institutional money will only flow to places with supervision, transparency, and exit mechanisms. Opportunities for the future are no longer hidden in the “next 100-fold local dog”, but in three directions:
04Where else will it fall? Don't guess, look at the logic The hottest question now is: Will Bitcoin drop to 80,000? Is the bull market over? Glassnode said that if the short-term holding cost of US$113,000 cannot be maintained, it may drop to US$88,000.； CryptoQuant pointed out that the average holding cost of the entire network is only US$55,900, which means that most people still have 93% floating profits.； KOL Ban Muxia even predicted: “The traditional four-year cycle is dead, and Bitcoin will first fall to 84,000, and then rush to 240,000 by the end of next year. ” But these predictions are not as important as the fact: weak demand is the current biggest enemy. On-chain capital inflows are still strong, but the price just can’t rise - indicating that the buying is not determined enough and the selling pressure is too real. ETFs are bleeding, LTH is cashing out, leveraged longs are liquidating their positions, and the real long-term buyers are still waiting and watching. Historical data shows that November is the month with the highest probability of Bitcoin rising. But this year is different - when the macro, chain, and sentiment are all in negative resonance, seasonal rules may also fail.
This plunge has washed away illusions and also washed away the truth. Those who live by leverage, FOMO, and "the next 100 times the coin" are leaving the market. And those who believe in technology, compliance, and the long-term logic of Bitcoin as a store of value are quietly building positions. The market never promises rewards, it only rewards sobriety.
Remember: in the crypto world, only those who have survived are qualified to talk about faith. 
This article does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin prices fluctuate violently, so investment needs to be cautious. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance. If you want to know more about the project, you can join the encryption circle communication group, scan the QR code below or search the WeChat ID dst3863934094 (only high-quality communities) Welcome to consult at any time, we will reply promptly   |
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