Bitcoin plummeted to a six-month low! The market structure is undergoing a profound change, and the digital asset market is experiencing a silent revolution from "outbreak logic" to "structural logic".

Nakamoto 2025-11-5 12:19 35845人围观 BTC

Bitcoin price has fallen to the lowest level since June, once reaching around $103,000, down nearly 20% from the historical high a month ago. The decline not only wiped out all of the summer’s gains but also cast a blanket of pessimism over the entire cry

Bitcoin prices have fallen to their lowest level since June, once reaching around $103,000, down nearly 20% from the all-time high a month ago. The decline not only wiped out all of the summer’s gains but also cast a blanket of pessimism over the entire cryptocurrency market.

The combination of weakening institutional buying, increasing macro pressures and a ripple effect of liquidation within the market has created the perfect storm. More deeply, this decline reveals that the encryption market is undergoing fundamental structural changes, and the traditional "four-year cycle" myth is being broken by reality.

01 Market Performance: Risk aversion sweeps crypto markets

In the past October, Bitcoin experienced its worst performance in ten years, falling by approximately 3.7%, breaking the seven-year "October Rise" pattern.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin price fell below the key technical support level of $105,000 and even hit a low of $102,870. This level is not only a key location for the 200-day exponential moving average, but also the bottom support formed in June.

Ethereum was also not spared, falling simultaneously to its lowest point since August. Altcoins have suffered even greater losses, with many smaller, less liquid tokens having fallen by more than 50% this year.

Panic in the cryptocurrency market spread rapidly, with more than $1 billion in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours, with BTC, ETH, DOGE and XRP at the top of the list of losses.

02 Behind the fall: Triple pressures create a perfect storm

Macroeconomic gloom is the main driver of the sell-off. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that a rate cut in December is not certain. This comment caused the probability of an interest rate cut to plummet from 96% to below 70%.

The U.S. dollar then strengthened, hitting risky assets like Bitcoin hard. Analysts pointed out that the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve and the failure to inject needed liquidity into the market are the main reasons why cryptocurrencies have struggled to rebound.

The outflow of institutional money is also a concern. After a record outflow of $800 million last week, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF saw another $180 million withdrawal on November 3.

What is even more worrying is that the outflow of funds from the Ethereum ETF is more obvious and may face five consecutive weeks of capital outflows, which is the longest continuous outflow since March.

The crisis of confidence within the market cannot be ignored either. Within 48 hours, Balancer and Stream Finance successively exposed security vulnerabilities of US$116 million and US$93 million, and more than US$200 million disappeared from the ecosystem in two days, shaking people's trust in the security of decentralized finance.

10x Research Founder Marcus Thielen pointed out that if the range of $100,000 to $101,000 is lost, Bitcoin may further retreat to the $94,000 or even $85,000 area.

03 Structural change: Crypto market bids farewell to the “four-year cycle” myth

The traditional “halving must be bullish” narrative is failing. According to the old "encryption world" saying, this should be the mid-term climax of another "four-year cycle", but the emotional feedback given by the market is very subtle.

The so-called simple narratives of “halving is a must” and “every four years” are becoming increasingly difficult to explain reality. This change is not on the chain, but off the chain - the structure of market participants has fundamentally changed.

On the one hand, the proportion of long-term holders and institutional investors continues to increase. Their capital duration is longer and their tolerance for short-term fluctuations is higher.

On the other hand, the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly lowered the threshold for entry and exit, and also made the path of "price response" more dispersed and diverse.

The pace of accumulation of Digital Assets Treasury Corporation (DAT) has slowed. Taking Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) as an example, it only increased its holdings of approximately 43,000 Bitcoins in the third quarter, which was the lowest quarterly purchase volume this year.

CryptoQuant Analyst J.A. Maarturn explained that the slowdown in accumulation may be related to a decline in Strategy's net asset value. As the valuation premium shrinks, buying Bitcoin through the issuance of new shares no longer brings significant appreciation, and the incentive for corporate financing to increase holdings weakens accordingly.

04 Future trends: from outbreak logic to structural logic

The next stage of market maturation will be the standardization of cross-border market operations. In the next two to three years, as the regulatory framework gradually becomes clearer, U.S. compliance intermediaries, custodians and brokers may provide investors with access to offshore liquidity on the premise of meeting KYC/AML requirements.

Stablecoins will be everywhere, from exchanges to the bottom of finance. For businesses, it provides near-real-time cross-border settlement capabilities that bypass slow and expensive traditional clearing systems.

It is foreseeable that in the next one or two years, the stablecoin field will undergo a round of "shuffle-style integration." Projects that are redundant, lack real usage scenarios or have unclear reserves will be eliminated.

DATs It will shift from “telling stories” to “delivering results”. Companies that can truly move toward 2.0 cannot just "put Bitcoin on the balance sheet," but need to "create sustained excess returns on Bitcoin."

This means that they must develop clear charging models and risk management frameworks around these assets - financial services such as custody, lending, hedging, settlement, etc., instead of staying in the logic of "holding and waiting for the increase".

Technical analysts pointed out that the $100,000 mark has become a key battleground for Bitcoin, with this level coinciding with the June low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. If this support fails, the next key level may be in the $92,000 to $94,000 range.

The market is at a crossroads. On the one hand, panic continues to spread ； On the other hand, whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoins resumed net accumulation at the end of October, suggesting that long-term investors may be buying on dips.

LMAX Strategist Joel Kruger believes the pullback is corrective in nature and not a structural issue. Bitcoin still has strong support near its 50-week moving average around $103,000.

The content of this article is synthesized from public reports such as Mitrade, CoinTelegraph, CoinSpeaker, ChainCatcher, Moneycontrol, moomoo, CoinGlass, etc.