Bitcoin finally has a bargain hunting opportunity?

Nakamoto 2025-11-5 12:50 27123人围观 BTC

👆Click on the blue text to follow us. Bitcoin fell below the 100,000 mark! Why did digital gold, once so popular among institutions, lose one-fifth of its market value in just one month? Is behind this plunge a change in market sentiment or a deeper struc

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Bitcoin falls below 100,000 mark!

Why did digital gold, once so popular among institutions, lose one-fifth of its market value in just one month? Is behind this plunge a change in market sentiment or a deeper structural crisis?

Today, Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark, hitting a low of $99,963, a drop of as much as 6.5%. This is the first time since June this year that Bitcoin has fallen below this key price level. Compared with the historical high reached a month ago, Bitcoin's recent decline has exceeded 20%. According to the standards of the stock market, this has met the definition of a bear market.

So why does Bitcoin, or the cryptocurrency market, experience such violent fluctuations?

The turning point came on October 10. On that day, due to factors such as the sudden rift in Sino-US relations, the collapse of the ultra-high leverage ratio, and the de-anchoring of stablecoins, the scale of market liquidation reached an astonishing US$19 billion. This catastrophe completely changed the psychology of the market.

Chris Newhouse, research director at Ergonia, a decentralized finance research institution, pointed out that Bitcoin’s fall back to the June low reflects the market structure, which is still trying to digest the psychological shadow caused by the large-scale liquidation event in October, which has fundamentally changed the way participants respond to the current downward trend.

Since then, traders have opted to wait and see. Open interest in Bitcoin futures is well below pre-crash levels, with few willing to get back in even as funding costs have become favourable. As a result, Bitcoin is up less than 10% this year, not only underperforming the stock market but once again proving that it cannot serve as an effective hedge in an investment portfolio.

However, it is worth mentioning that although today’s sell-off was brutal, the liquidation scale was only US$1 billion, which is far from the US$19 billion on October 10. Statistics from data provider Coinglass show that this decline is more like a sell-off of loss of belief.

What does this mean? This means that there are neither firm bulls nor firm bears in the market. Everyone is waiting and watching, waiting for a clear signal. Options traders have begun to prepare for further declines, with put options expiring at the end of November and with a strike price of $80,000 seeing the greatest demand, according to data from Deribit, a cryptocurrency exchange owned by Coinbase. In other words, traders are betting that Bitcoin will fall another 20%.

However, Bitcoin’s decline is not an isolated incident in an absolute sense. It is consistent with the pullback in technology stocks this week. AI star stocks like PLTR and Oracle have all pulled back sharply due to doubts about their overvaluation. Bitcoin, as a representative of speculative sentiment, once again fell in line with the stock market in direction.

This actually exposes a question: What exactly is Bitcoin? Is it a safe-haven asset or a risky asset? Judging from current performance, the answer is obviously the latter. When market risk appetite declined, Bitcoin not only failed to function as a safe haven, but fell even more sharply than the stock market.

In addition to the cryptocurrencies themselves, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have seen outflows, suggesting investor demand is cooling after a strong start to the year. Although November has only just begun, the current trend looks to be one of net outflows, suggesting that the sector’s momentum is pausing.

If Bitcoin’s situation is bad enough, Ethereum’s situation is even worse. Ethereum plunged 9.6% today. Data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF is experiencing five consecutive weeks of capital outflows, the longest period since March this year.

Newhouse said that although the long-term directional bias is clearly bearish, the severity of liquidation in October has prevented short positions from being firm, which has resulted in the market being dominated by short-term, tactical trading rather than firm, directional trading.

Jason believes that in the last article we mentioned that a government shutdown is equivalent to a disguised interest rate increase, and Bitcoin, which is sensitive to interest rates, will increase volatility. Historical data also supports this judgment. During the 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $69,000 to $15,000, a drop of more than 78%. That round of decline was also accompanied by the withdrawal of institutions and the outflow of ETF funds. Although the current situation is not as serious as that of the past, the characteristics of market psychological trauma and liquidity depletion are the same.

However, there are always two sides to a coin. We also mentioned that when the government shutdown ends, the pent-up liquidity will be released again, and this part of the funds will return to chasing high-risk assets, and Bitcoin is one of them.

So is now a good time to buy? Judging from betting in the options market, $80,000 may be the next target. Prior to this, in addition to the variable of government shutdown, the policy signals released by Federal Reserve officials during this period, the interest rate expectations given by CME, and macroeconomic data will all determine the market liquidity environment, thereby affecting the trend of Bitcoin.

Judging from the current situation, liquidity has a chance to return to its previous state, and there is room for recovery in the price of Bitcoin. But investors need to be patient and wait for clearer signals, especially from the government and the Federal Reserve. Before these variables become clear, unhedged bottom buying may face the risk of further declines.