Why is the largest buyer of Bitcoin no longer "crazy shopping"?

Nakamoto 2025-11-7 10:33 76724人围观 BTC

trillions The base is loose: Corporate treasury and ETF purchasing power are shrinking simultaneously, and Bitcoin has lost its "stable anchor." In early November 2025, institutional investors' net purchases of Bitcoin fell below the daily mining supply

The trillion-dollar base is loose: Corporate treasury and ETF purchasing power are shrinking simultaneously, and Bitcoin has lost its "stabilizing anchor"”

In early November 2025, institutional investors' net purchases of Bitcoin fell below the daily mining supply for the first time, and corporate treasury purchases plummeted 76% from the peak. The institutional alliance that was once regarded as a "solid bottom" is disintegrating

On November 3, 2025, data released by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards on the X platform showed that institutional investors’ net purchases of Bitcoin fell below the daily mining supply for the first time in seven months. This signal indicates that the "corporate treasury + ETF" twin engines that have supported Bitcoin prices in the past year are decelerating simultaneously. According to CryptoQuant data, the number of Bitcoin purchases by the listed company "Digital Asset Vault" plummeted from 64,000 in July to 15,500 in September, a drop of 76%. At the same time, Bitcoin ETF inflows shifted from steady to "pulse", with net redemptions exceeding $2 billion in the last two weeks of October.

01 The disintegration of institutional alliances: corporate treasury and ETF purchasing power shrink simultaneously

Corporate treasury model faces structural challenges

As the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has significantly slowed down its buying pace. In the third quarter, only 43,000 Bitcoins were added to the holdings, which was the lowest quarterly purchase volume since 2025. Some single-day purchases even dropped to the level of several hundred coins. Its stock price plummeted 16.8% in August, and its market value to net asset value ratio (mNAV) plummeted from a high of 208% to 4%, significantly weakening its financing capabilities.

Cooling trend spreads globally

Followers such as Tokyo-listed company Metaplanet are also facing the same dilemma, and their stock prices have fallen below the market value of their Bitcoin holdings. This pressure has even triggered industry consolidation: asset management company Strive recently acquired the smaller Bitcoin treasury company Semler Scientific in response to the deteriorating financing environment.

ETFs shift from steady inflows to volatility

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, once known as "automatic collectors," are also showing signs of weakness. Digital asset investment products attracted nearly $6 billion in inflows in the first two weeks of October, but by the end of the month, redemptions increased to more than $2 billion, and some weekly fund flows turned negative. This shows that ETFs have matured into true two-sided markets, where investors can quickly adjust their positions based on macro signals.

02 Model failure: Why corporate treasury no longer “crazyly scans goods””

The failure of financing mechanism is the key

The core of the corporate treasury model is to finance the purchase of currency through the issuance of stocks or convertible bonds, and rely on the mNAV premium given by the market to achieve expansion. When Strategy's mNAV plummeted from 208% to 4%, issuing new shares to buy Bitcoin no longer had a value-added effect, and the financing motivation naturally disappeared.

Alternative options to divert funds

Bitcoin spot ETFs offer a “cleaner” exposure option. Investors can directly hold ETF shares without having to bear additional risks such as corporate governance and equity dilution. Currently, spot ETFs hold approximately 1 million BTC, accounting for nearly 5% of the total supply, making them a strong competitor for corporate treasury.

Risks of simplification of business models

Of the approximately 188 publicly traded companies that hold Bitcoin, many lack other core businesses beyond Bitcoin exposure. When the price of Bitcoin fluctuates, these companies are prone to fall into a vicious cycle of "falling stock prices → weakening financing capabilities → declining ability to purchase coins". One-third of companies have pushed their stock trading prices below the value of their Bitcoin reserves.

03 Market Impact: Return of Volatility and Shift in Correlation

Price support mechanism weakens

Weaker corporate and ETF purchasing power means intraday volatility could intensify. Although the halving in April 2024 will mechanically reduce new supply, scarcity itself cannot guarantee price increases without sustained demand.

Asset attribute relocation

As the influence of institutional dynamics increases, Bitcoin may re-synchronize with the broad liquidity cycle. Periods of rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar could weigh on Bitcoin, while leading gains could resume in an accommodative environment. It behaves less and less like “digital gold” and more like a high-beta risk asset.

Increased short-term volatility

In periods of insufficient supply and demand, fewer stable buyers will weaken the ability to suppress volatility. The forced liquidation of long Bitcoin positions in the past 24 hours reached $275 million, highlighting the rising risk aversion in the market.

04 Future Path: Exploration of New Demand Channels

Policy dividend potential

New Hampshire in the United States has passed a state-level strategic Bitcoin reserve law, allowing the state treasurer to allocate up to 5% of reserve funds to Bitcoin. If more states or pension funds follow suit, it could open up new demand. The Trump administration’s policy of allowing 401(k) retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies is expected to bring potential inflows of $120 billion to $600 billion in the future.

New narratives drive possibilities

In addition to institutional allocation, sovereign wealth fund allocation, financial technology integration or the return of retail investors during macro easing cycles may become new sources of demand. Bitcoin’s value as a “supplementary option to the de-dollarization narrative” has also received attention.

Structural adjustment is inevitable

The market needs to adapt to the change from "steady inflow" to "pulsatile inflow". Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments believes that new catalysts such as monetary easing, regulatory clarity or a return to stock market risk appetite may reignite institutional buying.

Institutionalization is not an end but a transition

When corporate treasury purchases plummeted by 76% and ETF capital inflows turned volatile, the Bitcoin market was experiencing a critical transition from "institution-driven" to "diversified-driven."

This is not the end of the institutional narrative, but an increase in market maturity - single dependency is cured and a foundation of diverse needs is being built.

History shows Bitcoin always finds new channels for demand: When corporate coffers slow, state reserve policies are breaking the ice； When ETF inflows are volatile, the retirement fund allocation window is just opening.

The real test is not whether institutional funds continue to flow in, but whether Bitcoin can still prove its independent value as a store of value asset after the institutionalization ebbs.