Bitcoin has finally matured

Nakamoto 2025-11-7 10:50 15839人围观 BTC

Photographed at Monkey Island, South Bay, Lingshui, Hainan, in January 2022. The current Bitcoin market does make people feel a little confused. The price is hovering around 100,000 US dollars, and has retraced about 22% from last month’s historical high

Taken in January 2022 at Monkey Island in Nanwan, Lingshui, Hainan
The Bitcoin market does feel a bit confusing right now. The price is hovering around 100,000 US dollars, and has retraced about 22% from last month’s historical high of 126,000 US dollars. At the same time, the S&P 500 Index is approaching all-time highs, the Nasdaq is soaring, and the price of gold has exceeded $4,300. This contrast has spread a sense of frustration in the crypto community, leading people to ask: Why is Bitcoin so quiet when other assets are rising? This cognitive gap is very obvious. Bitcoin ETFs have successfully launched, institutional adoption is accelerating, the regulatory environment is improving, and all those things deemed important seem to be happening, yet the price of Bitcoin remains stagnant. If we look at this issue from another perspective, we may find a different truth. Although Bitcoin has never been a company, the economic model it follows is as old as capitalism itself. Early investors take a huge risk and deserve a huge reward if their investment succeeds. And ultimately, they need to cash in on those gains, they need liquidity, and they need to exit. In the traditional financial world, this moment is called an IPO (initial public offering). That’s when the early believers cashed out and the founders realized their fortunes. Companies don't die in an IPO, but rather undergo a transformation, begin to mature, and ownership becomes more dispersed. What Bitcoin is going through at the moment may be its own, silent IPO process. The bridge between these two worlds lies in observing the fundamental dynamics of the market. The trend of Bitcoin once followed that of technology stocks and was closely related to liquidity and "risk appetite." However, since December 2024, this correlation has been completely broken. When risk assets rise but Bitcoin doesn’t follow suit, it’s easy to think that “something is wrong with Bitcoin.” But based on observations of traditional markets, this is exactly the typical market performance during the IPO distribution period. When a company goes public and early investors begin selling off their positions, the stock often goes into consolidation even as the broader market rises. Early investors were not panic selling, they were diversifying their positions in a planned and step-by-step manner. They are cautious and don't want to crash the market. They are patient and have been waiting for several years. Naturally, they can wait a few more months to make things more secure. On-chain data provides strong evidence for this view. Wallet addresses that haven’t moved in years, some that have been dormant since the days when Bitcoin prices were still in the single digits, are suddenly becoming active. It didn’t happen overnight, and it wasn’t the result of panic, but it has been going on steadily and methodically this year, especially since the beginning of the summer. Since August, Bitcoin “whales” (large holders) have sold a total of 147,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately US$16 billion. Some analysts pointed out that in the past month, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 400,000 Bitcoins, equivalent to a capital outflow of US$45 billion. A more iconic event is that an "ancient whale" who had been holding Bitcoin since the beginning of 2011 liquidated his holdings of approximately 80,000 Bitcoins in July 2025, worth approximately US$9 billion. This is not panic selling by retail investors, nor is it a trader being shaken out, but veteran players in the industry methodically exiting a huge position. It is crucial to understand the psychological state of these original bearers. Just imagine if you were someone who mined Bitcoin in 2010, or someone who bought it when it was $100 or even $1,000. You survived the Mt. Gox crash, you survived multiple government bans, you survived the 2018 bear market and the uncertainty during the pandemic. You persevered when almost no one believed it, you took the risk, and you succeeded. Bitcoin’s success has exceeded almost everyone’s wildest imagination. Now you are sitting on wealth that will last for generations. Stages of life are also changing. Maybe you're nearing retirement, maybe your kids are going off to college. Now, for the first time, you can actually exit your position without destroying the market. This is what the Bitcoin veteran whales have been waiting for a long time - not the price, which they have already had, but liquidity, market depth, and the ability to truly exit. Mission accomplished, Bitcoin has proven itself. Now is the time to reap the rewards. Looking at it from another perspective, the market structure this time is also fundamentally different from the past. This is not a typical bear market driven by fear. Bear markets often stem from a loss of confidence in the underlying narrative, but right now, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are arguably the strongest they’ve ever been. ETFs are approved, institutional adoption is accelerating, and the Internet is more secure than ever. Sellers sell not because they have lost confidence, but because they have taken profits and exited. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also pointed out that the current market structure is evolving into "old whales transferring chips to new long-term holders (such as institutions, ETFs and allocation buyers)." This means that despite the selling pressure, the nature of the takers has changed, which could result in price corrections being milder but longer lasting. A striking example is that the $9 billion whale liquidation in July 2025 only caused the price of Bitcoin to fall by about 3.5%, and it was quickly repaired the next day. In comparison, in 2024, a sell-off worth approximately $2.88 billion (the German government liquidated 50,000 BTC) caused the price to fall by approximately 20% ； In 2022, a sell-off of approximately US$2.4 billion (related to the Luna/UST collapse) accelerated the market into a deep bear. This clearly shows that the liquidity and resilience of the market have changed dramatically. This shift from centralized holdings to decentralized holdings is extremely beneficial to the long-term development of Bitcoin. Centralization is fragile, while decentralization is antifragile. When Bitcoin was held primarily by a few thousand early adopters, the market itself was unstable. Decisions made by a few wallets can significantly affect the price. But as ownership is dispersed, when millions of investors take smaller positions, the structure of the market becomes more stable. This is like if 100 people own 50% of the supply and one of them decides to sell, 0.5% of the total supply will hit the market and seriously affect the price. But if 1 million people own 50% of the supply, even if 10,000 people decide to sell at the same time, it will only account for 0.5% of the total supply. However, its impact will be dispersed and digested by thousands of transactions through different channels and at different price levels, and the impact on prices will naturally weaken. This is exactly what happens after an IPO in traditional markets: ownership disperses from a handful of founders, early employees, and venture capitalists to index funds, retail investors, and various institutional investors. Stock price volatility decreases and assets become more mature. Therefore, the current sense of frustration permeating the market may just misunderstand the stage we are in. This is not a sign of Bitcoin’s failure, but of its outright success. This silent IPO is the rite of passage that must be completed for Bitcoin to move from a revolutionary experiment to a durable monetary asset. The OG Whales are experiencing their liquidity moment, and they deserve to reap the rewards. What they are left with is a Bitcoin that is stronger, more decentralized, and more resilient than when they accumulated it. The consolidation is certainly frustrating, but the divergence from risk assets is not the end of the world. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are stronger than ever. The fundamental change that its holding structure is undergoing is the only way for it to transform from a marginal speculative asset into a global currency asset. Volatility is the price of Bitcoin’s birth ； Stability will be proof of its maturity.