The U.S. government shutdown is turning a corner! The bottom of Bitcoin is forming?

Nakamoto 2025-11-9 11:11 52724人围观 BTC

While the market is panicking, long-term holders are frantically accumulating funds, accumulating 375,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, setting a record high. With the two parties in the U.S. Congress basically reaching consensus on a short-term bill, the

While the market is panicking, long-term holders are frantically accumulating funds, accumulating 375,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, setting a record high.

With the two parties in the U.S. Congress basically reaching consensus on a short-term bill, the U.S. government shutdown that lasted for dozens of days finally took a turn. The possible vote this week affects the hearts of countless investors and brings a glimmer of hope to the recently weakened cryptocurrency market.

During the shutdown, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has accumulated more than $1 trillion in cash, and market liquidity has tightened sharply, which has put significant pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Just last week, Bitcoin once fell below the psychological level of $100,000, down about 20% from the historical high of $126,000 set in early October, and market sentiment fell into extreme panic.

01 Liquidity dilemma caused by government shutdown

The "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government has entered its 39th day, and the impact of this political deadlock on the market is gradually emerging. Since the Ministry of Finance was unable to spend as planned, the TGA account showed a "only in, no out" mode, absorbing a large amount of US dollar liquidity in the market.

This tightening of liquidity amounts to a de facto interest rate hike, putting pressure on risk assets. Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, pointed out that “the government shutdown is likely to last until December, which has delayed expected withdrawals from the U.S. Treasury Department’s general account and hindered the implementation of positive factors that were expected to support rising risk asset prices.”

Cryptocurrency markets have been weak of late amid the shadow of the government shutdown. Not only did Bitcoin once fall below the $100,000 mark, but the entire cryptocurrency sector was also filled with pessimism. According to a Galaxy Digital report, 72 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have fallen more than 50% from their respective historical highs.

02 Market weakness and withdrawal of institutional funds

The recent weakness in the Bitcoin market is not only reflected in price, but also in capital flows. The spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced outflows for many days in a row, and even if there are occasional inflows, they are quickly offset by subsequent outflows.

The withdrawal of funds at the institutional level means short-term liquidity is under pressure. What is even more alarming is that the Coinbase premium has also fallen into negative territory. This shows that even institutional investors are cautious about Bitcoin in the short term.

Corporate interest in buying Bitcoin has also cooled significantly. Data shows that since 2025, the scale of corporate-level purchases of Bitcoin as reserve assets has dropped significantly. At the peak of the market, companies purchased up to 100,000 coins per month, but by October, the monthly purchases were only 14,400 coins.

This sudden contraction in funding has further weakened Bitcoin’s price support.

03 Long-term holders quietly make plans

However, during times of market panic, long-term holders exhibit a very different pattern of behavior. In the past 30 days, accumulation addresses (addresses that continue to receive Bitcoins but rarely transfer them out) have attracted a total of approximately 375,000 Bitcoins, setting a record high.

Especially in the days when Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark, these addresses bought more than 50,000 Bitcoins within 24 hours, showing a strong willingness to buy on dips. The average monthly purchases doubled in less than two months, from 130,000 to 262,000.

The typical characteristics of this type of accumulation address are that there are at least two independent incoming transactions, no obvious transfer behavior, and they do not contain the wallet addresses of any exchanges or miners.

Although the custody addresses of some spot ETFs may also be classified into this category, ETFs as a whole have recently shown a net outflow trend, indicating that these purchases are more likely to come from the active position building of independent investors and private capital.

04 Historical patterns and bottom signals

Judging from historical data, current market conditions may be forming a potential price bottom. When short-term holders fall into a loss-making situation, buying will often be stimulated to intervene, and then push Bitcoin to rebound.

Currently, short-term Bitcoin holders (those who hold coins for 1-3 months) are suffering a loss of about 12%, which is smaller than the adjustment in 2024 and early 2025. At the same time, the supply of Bitcoin, which was in a loss-making state, once reached a level of about 30%.

This data point is noteworthy because over the past few years, the market has tended to experience strong price rallies when supply loss ratios have risen to similar ranges.

This extreme selling situation usually means that panic funds are being released, and new buying quietly enters the market to absorb chips, creating conditions for the formation of a market bottom.

05 Market Outlook after the Government Restarts

Once the U.S. government shutdown ends, the U.S. Treasury Department will begin to use TGA funds, and market liquidity conditions will be significantly eased. This change could become an important catalyst for the cryptocurrency market’s rebound.

Analysts believe that the Treasury Department's actions to withdraw funds and stop spending in recent months are equivalent to de facto interest rate hikes, while the rapid allocation of large amounts of liquidity after the U.S. government restarts is similar to invisible quantitative easing.

This liquidity shift could prompt a year-end melt-up trend in risk assets, especially cryptoassets that are sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity.

Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell predicts that “the crypto market will rebound at the end of the year, with a price target for Bitcoin of between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of the year.”

However, Galaxy Digital has recently made a more conservative adjustment to market sentiment, lowering the year-end target price of Bitcoin from $180,000 to $120,000. The reasons include large-scale liquidation in the futures market on October 11 and continued high risk aversion.

Looking back at historical trends, every time the market panics, it is often a good opportunity for long-term investors to quietly make plans. After Bitcoin's 13% flash crash on October 11, the market once exploded with $19.358 billion in positions within 24 hours, but then the price gradually stabilized, showing the market's resilience.

As the U.S. government shutdown issue may turn around, once the two parties reach a consensus, the over trillion dollars in cash hoarded in the U.S. Treasury Department's TGA account will flow back into the market, which is equivalent to an invisible quantitative easing.

For investors, it is even more important to remain rational during times of market panic. As Wall Street legend Mike Novogratz said: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. ”He invests 10% of his net worth in cryptocurrencies not for speculative purposes but as long-term growth.