Bitcoin Magazine Article: Mathematical Methods to Predict Bitcoin Price Bottoms

Nakamoto 2025-11-9 13:06 45853人围观 BTC

Mathematical Methods to Simulate Bitcoin Price Bottoms Data models show that the next Bitcoin bear market may be shallower than previous ones, revealing how maturity is reshaping volatility. Author: Matt Crosby Translated and compiled: Neil's Frontier Vis

Mathematical method to simulate Bitcoin price bottom

Data models suggest the next Bitcoin bear market may be shallower than previous ones, revealing how maturity is reshaping volatility.

Author: Matt Crosby

Translation and editing: Neil’s cutting-edge vision

November 7, 2025

Neil's introduction

"This article is purely speculation based on historical data, that is, it is assumed that historical laws will reappear. This is not a prediction, but a simulation of the recurrence of historical patterns. "

Cycle Master: Modeling Bitcoin’s historical price bottom
Diminishing Drawbacks: Why Each Bitcoin Bear Market Gets Less Painful
Predicting the next Bitcoin price top and bottom
Bitcoin Price and Rising Production Costs
Conclusion: The next Bitcoin cycle decline may be shallower

While many people are still paying attention to how high Bitcoin can rise in this bull market (although judging from the current price performance, it may not be that optimistic! ), it’s also important to be prepared for what comes next. This article will explore where the potential bottom of the next bear market may appear based on past cycles, on-chain valuation indicators and the fundamental value of Bitcoin from a data and mathematical perspective - this is not a "prediction", but a framework based on history and models.

Cycle Master: Modeling Bitcoin’s historical price bottom

A long-term stable and highly accurate model for identifying Bitcoin cyclical bottoms is the "Bitcoin Cycle Master". The model integrates multiple indicators on the chain to form different valuation ranges around the price.

Figure 1: The “Cycle Lows” line in the Cycle Master chart is highly consistent with the bottom of the historical bear market.

Historically, this green “cycle low” line has marked Bitcoin’s macro bottom almost perfectly:

$160 in 2015
$3,200 in 2018
$15,500 at the end of 2022

As of now, this valuation band sits around $43,000 and is rising daily, providing an effective benchmark for estimating potential downside for the next full cycle.

Diminishing Drawbacks: Why Each Bitcoin Bear Market Gets Less Painful

Another key reference metric is the MVRV ratio, which measures the Bitcoin market price relative to its realized price (the average cost of all coins). Historically, in deep bear markets, Bitcoin typically falls to 0.75x realized price, where the market price is approximately 25% below the network's cost basis.

Figure 2: Historical bear market bottoms typically occur when the MVRV ratio falls to 0.75.

This repeatability gives us a strong downside anchor. This is even more obvious when combined with a “diminishing retracement” trend:

Early cycle declines were as deep as 88%
2018 Bear Market Drop of 80%
Bear market decline narrows further to 75% in 2022

If this trend continues, the next bear market may only see a retracement of about 70%.

Figure 3: As the bear market decline continues to shrink, the next retracement from the top of the cycle may not exceed 70%.

Predicting the next Bitcoin price top and bottom

Before estimating the next bottom, we need a reasonable top assumption. Based on the trend growth of historical MVRV multiples and realized prices, Bitcoin has tended to peak at about 2.5 times the realized price in recent cycles.

If this relationship continues to hold true and prices continue their upward trend.

Figure 4: Based on MVRV multiples and realized price trends, the top of the cycle may be around $180,000, while the bottom of the bear market in 2027 may fall in the $55,000–60,000 range.

Based on this assumption, and extrapolating to 2027 according to the historical pattern of bear markets usually lagging by one year:

If the top is around $180,000
A 70% retracement would bring a bear market bottom in the ≈ $55,000–$60,000 range

This price is also close to Bitcoin’s volatile consolidation range last year, forming a certain technical resonance.

Bitcoin Price and Rising Production Costs

One of the most reliable long-term valuation indicators for Bitcoin is the cost of production, which is the cost of electricity required to mine 1 BTC. Historically, this indicator has tended to align precisely with Bitcoin’s deep bear market bottoms.

Each halving doubles the cost of production, creating a rising structural floor beneath the price.

Figure 5: The current estimated electricity cost to produce 1 BTC is approximately $70,000, forming a strong price support.

When Bitcoin falls below the cost of production, it usually means that miners are under pressure, which often corresponds to a historical “bottom-picking opportunity.” This cost has risen dramatically since the April 2024 halving, and every time Bitcoin approaches or even briefly falls below the cost, it is accompanied by a strong reversal. The indicator is currently around $70,000 (daily fluctuations).

Conclusion: The next Bitcoin cycle decline may be shallower

Every Bitcoin cycle comes with a wave of “this time it’s different” sentiment. But the data suggests otherwise. While institutional adoption and broader financial integration have certainly changed the structure of Bitcoin, they have not eliminated cyclicality.

Data suggests that the next bear market may be shallower, reflecting a more mature and liquid market environment.

A bear market bottom retracing to the $55,000–$70,000 range:

does not mean collapse
Rather, it is the continuation of the “expansion-reset” rhythm in Bitcoin’s history.

Little B comments

“The model is very accurate, but when the market gets excited, who remembers the formula? ”

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This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to conduct your own research and make independent judgments on all investment decisions, and bear your own risks.