Is there a bubble in Bitcoin?

Nakamoto 2025-11-12 14:40 54417人围观 BTC

This is a very core and classic question. To answer "Is there a bubble in Bitcoin?" we need to look at it from multiple angles, because the answer is not a simple "yes" or "no", but more like a spectrum.

In general, Bitcoin has many characteristics of a typical bubble, but it also has unique fundamentals that are different from traditional bubble assets. We can conduct an in-depth analysis from both positive and negative aspects:

Argument 1: Why do people think Bitcoin is a bubble?

These views are mainly based on its historical performance and certain market behaviors, which are similar to historical asset bubbles (such as the Dutch Tulip Mania and the Internet Bubble).

Extreme Price Volatility: Bitcoin’s price experiences huge surges and crashes in short periods of time. This high volatility is a classic sign of a speculative asset rather than a stable store of value.

Price drivers based on beliefs and narratives: Bitcoin’s value relies heavily on the belief that more people will accept it in the future. When market sentiment is high, prices are driven up by FOMO (fear of missing out) and divorced from their actual current utility.

Speculators dominate: A large number of market participants buy Bitcoin primarily for short-term profits rather than holding or using it for the long term. This creates a classic speculative bubble environment.

Lack of traditional valuation anchors: Unlike stocks (with price-to-earnings ratios), bonds (with coupons), and real estate (with rental income), Bitcoin does not have an "intrinsic value" that can be calculated through discounted cash flow. This makes its price more emotionally driven and makes it difficult to judge its "reasonable" price.

Argument 2: Why do some people think that Bitcoin is not a bubble in the traditional sense?

Proponents argue that Bitcoin has unique fundamentals that make it different from frothy assets that eventually go to zero.

Scarcity and deterministic issuance mechanism: The supply of Bitcoin is strictly limited to 21 million, and the issuance rate is transparent and predictable (through the "halving" event). This absolute scarcity is at the heart of its value proposition as “digital gold,” in stark contrast to fiat currencies that can be issued infinitely.

Powerful network effects and decentralization: Bitcoin has a massive network that is global, censorship-resistant, and operates 24/7. The value of this network grows with the number of users and participants (Metcalfe’s Law). It is extremely difficult to destroy or replace this network.

Clear practical use case:

Store of value: In unstable countries (such as Argentina, Nigeria), Bitcoin is used as a hedge against local currency hyperinflation and capital controls.

Cross-border payments: It provides a relatively fast and low-cost way to transfer value across borders without relying on the traditional banking system.

Institutionalization and financialization: In recent years, Bitcoin has been accepted by the traditional financial system, such as:

The approval of Bitcoin spot ETF provides traditional investors with a compliant investment channel.

Publicly traded companies (such as MicroStrategy) and national-level adoption use it as a treasury reserve asset.

A more dialectical view: the cyclical coexistence of bubbles and value

A more widely accepted view is that Bitcoin’s long-term value discovery process is completed through a series of cyclical bubbles and bursts.

Bubbles are catalysts for value discovery: every huge price bubble attracts global attention and capital, leading to a large influx of new users, developers and capital into the ecosystem. When the bubble burst, although prices fell, the foundation of the network (users, infrastructure, awareness) rose to a higher level and settled. This is called the “adoption curve.”

“The “digital gold” narrative is still being priced in: Bitcoin’s story as a non-sovereign asset against currency devaluation and geopolitical risks is still being played out. The market is trying to price this emerging asset class, and the process is bound to be dramatic and full of trial and error.

It is both an asset and a protocol: Bitcoin is both a tradable financial asset and a global settlement protocol. Treating it as a mere speculative product ignores the revolutionary potential of its underlying technology.

💎 Conclusion

So, is there a Bitcoin bubble?

In the short term, during the bull market mania, its price undoubtedly contains a huge bubble component, and market sentiment and irrational speculation will push its price to a level far beyond its current practical value. The ensuing plunge is also an inevitable "bubble elimination" process.

In the long term, the concepts of scarcity, decentralization and financial liberalization it represents, as well as the growing global network behind it, constitute its fundamental value. As long as this network continues to exist and grow, it will not completely burst and disappear like pure bubbles in history.

Final advice to you:

Don’t simply classify Bitcoin as a “bubble” or “non-bubble.” A better way to think of it is that it is a high-risk, emerging, maturing asset class whose price discovery occurs through intense bubble cycles. It is crucial for investors to understand its highly volatile nature and only invest money that they can afford to lose.