BTC bulls were knocked down, ETH Strong support does not break the low point! "No one wants" the copycat collective? Where is the bottom?

Nakamoto 2025-11-17 13:19 76303人围观 BTC

QQ: 3107757292 There is no charge to enter the community skirt, no promotion of exchanges, no recommendation links. The recent wave of decline has made the entire currency circle doubtful about life: "Why is it falling again? There are so many benefits, b

QQ: 3107757292

There is no charge to enter the community, no exchanges, no recommended links

This recent wave of decline has made the entire currency circle doubt their lives: "Why is it falling again?" There are so many benefits, but the currency price is still more difficult for me to get up early? ”

Don't worry, this decline is not unreasonable, but six major factors have given the market a sap.

Why did it fall? The six reasons are better than the six-pointed star

① U.S. debt auction sucks blood: 125 billion sucks the blood of everyone in the audience

The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned 125 billion U.S. Treasury bonds this week, sucking away liquidity and directly driving the currency circle into anemia.

② The Fed shouted "stop shrinking its balance sheet" but has not actually implemented it yet

They said they would not reduce their balance sheet, but their actions failed to keep up.
The wallets in the market have not yet felt the "blood replenishment", so naturally they can't move.

③ The U.S. government has just resumed operations, and people also need a week to warm up.

The money in the TGA account has not yet begun to flow, and it will be a little later for fiscal funds to be transmitted to the currency circle.
This rhythm is as slow as a panda getting up.

④ Macro data window period → hawkish voices amplify → interest rate cut expectations halved

The probability of an interest rate cut in December has gone from 90% to 50%, and the market is instantly insecure.

⑤ U.S. stocks are also falling: they have risen too much and they need to take a rest

This wave of U.S. stocks is a "callback-style decline", and the currency circle is as usual——
Follow the decline but not the rise, follow the fall but not the rise, follow the fall but not the rise (say important things three times)

⑥ Pessimism circulates itself: the more it falls, the more FUD it gets, and the more FUD it gets, the more it falls.

When there is no new money to support the situation, this negative cycle is almost impossible to reverse by the currency circle itself.

BTC: It’s been building momentum for too long → Slaughter the longs → Start looking for the bottom now

BTC has been going back and forth in the range of 98,000-110,000 for a long time, which made the bulls fat, and then a big negative line was harvested. The weekly chart has been negative for three consecutive times, and it has once again stepped back to the previous low. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet, and it is still in the bottom-finding stage.

But the good news is: the daily support area below is 93300–98115, and the probability of a historical rebound is high.

BTC operating rhythm

① You can play short and long near 99600, no pattern!

The position happens to be at the small five-wave correction ratio. Make a short long position and run if it falls below the short-term low.
Profit depends on "rebound", not on faith.

② Determine the market outlook by looking at the height of the rebound

The rebound stands above 101600: it can continue to rebound in the future.
The rebound can’t even reach 101600: keep going to find the bottom

③ Want to go short? Watch the 30 minute & 1 hour chart

As long as the double line is close to below the zero axis, a solid energy column will appear——
Then go short! The higher the position, the more fragrant it is.

When can you really buy the dip?

Three conditions are indispensable:

BTC contract accumulated funds ≥ 500 million
Reminder of fund change ≥ 10 times or more
BTC is trading sideways in the box, and the price has not rebounded much

Reaching this state is the "prelude to the true bottom."

ETH: No new low, slightly stronger than BTC

ETH fell as low as 3154, which is not a new low, indicating that it is relatively resilient. The upper edge was knocked down as soon as the pressure hit it, but now it is lower near the front and the support is obvious.

My personal strategy:
Enter long positions with small positions in the 3234-3200 range, and exit immediately if it falls below the short-term low. There is no need to take orders. The current market situation is "every bite you can take is a bite."

Shanzhai: The product is strong, but the market just doesn’t want to buy it.

The recent copycats and secondary markets are really:

100 million UNI were destroyed, and there was no reaction at all.
BANK was smashed as soon as it went online and made me doubt my life.

What does this mean?

There is less and less money in the market willing to take over.
Alpha users are still rising, but money in the secondary market is becoming more and more cautious.

In other words: You look at the right track and choose the right project, but the market maker simply "doesn't give you a chance."

What this kind of market plays is: position management, position management, position management.

The article ends here. I will do a more detailed analysis in the communication group. If you want to join my circle

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