Bitcoin fell below $94,000, erasing last year’s gains, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December fell below 50%

Nakamoto 2025-11-17 14:23 91006人围观 BTC

Reporter丨Li Yutong Editor丨Zeng Jingjiao On the 17th, Beijing time, after rising to US$96,600, Bitcoin plunged again, once falling to US$93,778.6, erasing all gains this year. As of around 7 a.m., Bitcoin had fallen by more than 1%, falling below $95,000.

Reporter丨Li Yutong

Editor丨Zeng Jingjiao

On the 17th, Beijing time, after rising to $96,600, Bitcoin plunged again, once falling to $93,778.6, erasing all gains this year. As of around 7 a.m., Bitcoin had fallen by more than 1%, falling below $95,000. Many cryptocurrency products followed suit.

Coinglass shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 150,000 people around the world have liquidated their cryptocurrency positions.

On the news. Recently, the market's expectations for an interest rate cut in December have cooled, and the overall risk appetite in the United States has declined significantly.

According to the Securities Times citing CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December fell below 50% to only 44.4%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged rose to 55.6%.； The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts by 50 basis points is 16.7%.

According to previous reports from the Financial Associated Press, short-term interest rate futures (the best real-time indicator of financial market expectations for Fed policy) show that the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting interest rates on December 10 has dropped to 47%, compared with 67% earlier last week.

According to Morgan Stanley's prediction, the Federal Reserve will be able to obtain complete data on U.S. employment, inflation, retail sales and preliminary third-quarter GDP in September before the interest rate meeting on December 9-10. The key lies in whether the October and November employment reports can be released in time.

In addition, Bank of America and Nomura have already predicted in research reports that the Fed will remain on hold in December.

According to CCTV News, on the 14th, Logan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank under the Federal Reserve, said that unless she sees clear evidence that U.S. inflation will fall faster, she will not support the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December. Logan pointed out that the current inflation level in the United States is still on an upward trend, and it will take time to return to the 2% target.

Previously, Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsby said that the lack of economic data caused by the U.S. government's "shutdown" made him more cautious about further cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook also said that given the dual risks of inflation and the labor market outlook, it is not certain that another interest rate cut will be carried out in December.

(Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk. )

SFC

Produced by 21 Finance Client 21st Century Economic Report

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