95,000 life-and-death line BTC The end-game of the epic game

Nakamoto 2025-11-17 17:01 85639人围观 BTC

95,000 life-and-death line BTC The end-game of the epic game Before $95,000, Bitcoin was staging the most thrilling long-short showdown in the history of cryptography. The daily line, which has failed to effectively break through for 19 consecutive days,

95,000 life and death line

BTC epic game endgame deduction

Bitcoin, which stands just before $95,000, is staged the most thrilling long-short showdown in the history of cryptography. The daily line, which has failed to effectively break through for 19 consecutive days, has accumulated 150,000 BTC options open interest. This 21-day tug-of-war is pushing the crypto market to the crossroads of "new high carnival" and "trampling to zero."

95000: The technical throat that determines bullishness and bearishness

The triple top structure at the weekly level is taking shape at $94,300. The Bollinger Band upper limit suppression and the Fibonacci 1.618 extension level accurately converge at $95,300. The daily spot trading volume of more than US$20 billion in the past three weeks has exposed the intensive exchange of hands between institutional investors and early giant whales at this price. It is worth noting that the perpetual contract funding rate hit an annual peak of 0.45% on November 3, which means that leveraged bulls are betting on a decisive breakthrough.

On-chain data shows that medium-sized addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC reduced their holdings of 170,000 Bitcoins in the 93,000-95,000 range, reaching the intensity of selling at the historical high in November 2021. The exchange's stablecoin reserves plummeted from US$42 billion to US$32 billion on April 15, and the liquidity consumption war has entered a white-hot stage. This explains why every time the price hits $94,900, a flash liquidation order of more than 3,000 BTC is always triggered.

The attack and defense codes in the 20-day line chart

Breaking down the daily K-line pattern since April, it shows obvious "flagpole-flag" consolidation characteristics. The 11.6% vertical rise from US$85,200 to US$95,100 on April 7 formed a flagpole, and the subsequent 17 trading days of narrow range fluctuations of 3.6% formed the flag. According to classic technical theory, if the upper edge of the flag pattern is effectively broken, the theoretical increase target points to $107,000. ； A break below the lower track of $89,300 may trigger a trend reversal.

It is worth noting that the RSI indicator has a rare triple top divergence phenomenon: the RSI values corresponding to the three high points on October 7, 15, and 23 were 82, 76, and 71 respectively, which formed a clear deviation from the price trend. When this divergence occurs near a key resistance level, it often predicts kinetic energy failure. The on-chain options market has verified this concern. The open interest of 95,000 put options expiring on November 3 has surged by 300%, and the cost spread has expanded from 15% to 37%.

The secret war of the century between miners and institutions

Bitcoin mining difficulty ushered in an epic adjustment on April 26, with the -5.7% change marking the largest drop since December 2022. On-chain tracking shows that top mining pools such as F2Pool and AntPool have reduced their holdings by 800-1,200 BTC every day since April 20, and the Miner Position Index (MPI) has reached the warning value of 2.3. This implies that some miners, under the pressure of high costs after the halving, chose to cash out in advance at the 95,000 mark.

The operations of institutional investors showed dramatic differences: BlackRock IBIT had a record inflow of US$387 million in a single day on October 22, while Grayscale GBTC had an outflow of US$240 million on the same day. The more secretive battlefield is in the over-the-counter market. Three over-the-counter transactions exceeding 5,000 BTC in a single day were monitored on the chain. The receiving addresses are all associated with the market maker Wintermute, which is suspected of accumulating ammunition for breakthroughs or market crashes.

Zero Trap or Moon Landing Beginning?

US$95,000 corresponds to the key threshold of Bitcoin’s total market value of US$1.86 trillion, exceeding the total global silver market value. A successful breakthrough means that Bitcoin will officially enter the valuation system benchmarked against gold ($12.8 trillion). According to the Stock-to-Flow model, the theoretical upside after breaking through this position can reach 240%, forming a value reconstruction with traditional financial assets.

However, if the support level of US$87,300 is lost, the CryptoQuant on-chain liquidation model shows that a series of forced liquidations of more than US$5.2 billion will be triggered, and the derivatives market may repeat the "death spiral" in May 2021. The whale address change data is a red light: the top ten currency-holding addresses have transferred 120,000 BTC to the exchange in the past three days, which is the largest potential selling signal since "Black Thursday" in March 2020.

Survivor's Tactics Manual

Technical traders should set $89,000 as the watershed between long and short. When chasing a breakthrough, they need to be wary of the "false breakthrough trap" and observe whether the four-hour closing can stabilize above $95,300. Value investors can refer to the MVRV-Z indicator. When the value exceeds 8.5 (currently 7.2), a ladder take-profit strategy needs to be initiated. On-chain analysts specifically remind you to pay attention to the annual volatility of Bitcoin. If the current value of 42% rises to more than 55% quickly, it is often a precursor to market changes.

Derivatives players must pay close attention to option block trades. When the call/put option ratio with a strike price of $95,000 shows an extreme imbalance of more than 5:1, it often indicates opportunities for reverse operations. For miners, the hash rate indicator shows that if the price falls below $85,300, more than 18% of mining machines will be forced to shut down, which may be the trigger for the last wave of liquidation.

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