Bitcoin bulls have everything ready, except for rising prices?

Nakamoto 2025-11-18 23:31 24673人围观 BTC

Wall Street’s blessing, policy tailwinds, and large amounts of institutional funds entering the market—Bitcoin bulls have almost all the good news, except for one: rising prices. After breaking through $126,000 in October, Bitcoin fell rapidly and deeply,

Wall Street’s blessing, policy tailwinds, and large amounts of institutional funds entering the market—Bitcoin bulls have almost all the advantages except one: rising prices.

After breaking through $126,000 in October, Bitcoin fell rapidly and deeply, once wiping out all its gains in 2025. It only stabilized slightly on Monday (November 17).

This rapid fall from historical highs coincides with a cycle that is expected to be the "year of finalizing Bitcoin's legality": Wall Street officially enters the market, ETFs allow cryptocurrencies to enter mainstream investment portfolios, and the Trump administration fully embraces crypto assets. But the market weakened suddenly—quickly, hard, and with no clear trigger. According to Bloomberg data, the total market value of Bitcoin has evaporated by approximately US$600 billion from its October high.

The crypto market has always been volatile, but the difference this time is that market confidence faded too quickly, and few of the mainstream explanations hold water.

Market anxiety spreads, investors look for logic in old books

Between traders and social media, anxiety is spreading. The market is constantly looking back at old charts, looking for buys, trying to use models from the past to explain current trends. In the absence of a traditional "Wall Street template" to guide how Bitcoin should behave (lack of stable correlation, unclear risk framework), investors have once again returned to familiar logic-the four-year halving cycle.

Bitcoin automatically halves new supply every approximately four years, which historically has been accompanied by speculative surges and subsequent deep corrections. Miners tend to sell when prices weaken, further amplifying losses.

This round of halving will occur in April 2024 and then peak in October this year, which seems to be in line with the past rhythm. But with deep-pocketed institutions dominating the market, it's no longer clear that cycle theory still holds true.

Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, said: “Retail investor sentiment is currently extremely poor, and the market may still have room to go down. Many people are afraid that the four-year cycle will happen again and do not want to experience another 50% correction, so they leave the market early. ”

Part of the decline comes from the market's "hangover" and fatigue: retail investors were deeply trapped in chasing crypto-related stocks at high prices. In early October, trade tensions unexpectedly escalated, triggering a chain of liquidations of leveraged positions, coinciding with a surge in market leverage, resulting in: “strong expectations, weak confidence.”

The market is too fragile to sustain panic selling

All this is happening at a time when the bullish story is at its strongest - ETFs attract billions of dollars in mid-year funding, packaging Bitcoin as a "macro hedge asset"”； U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-encryption policies have further boosted expectations.

But inflows stalled and some long-term holders started cashing in profits. Industry benchmark company Strategy Inc.’s stock price is now almost equal to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, reflecting the market’s reluctance to give a “faith premium.”

Jake Kennis, an analyst at crypto data company Nansen, pointed out: “Bitcoin today trades more like a macro asset in an institutional portfolio, reacting more to liquidity, policy and dollar movements than a mechanical model to supply shocks. ”

Despite the continued institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, markets are still driven by sentiment, and the current mood is very bad: risk appetite cools； Altcoins have fallen significantly this year.

“The "Trump Effect" also failed to offset macro pressures

Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: “Both stocks and gold are near all-time highs, and Bitcoin is melting as the top risk asset. I expect Bitcoin and most crypto assets to continue falling. ”

Despite solid market infrastructure, Bitcoin has risen significantly since Trump's election, but the current pullback is undoubtedly disappointing for some investors who expected a rush to $200,000 by the end of the year.

The question is: If it can’t break through even when policy support, mainstream adoption, and financial infrastructure are in place, when will Bitcoin take off?

Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: “Perhaps it is investors’ fear of a repeat of the four-year cycle that makes the cycle a reality. ”

But he also noted: “Typical rhythms may have been disrupted or even permanently changed. ”

The real key: Not the halving, but global liquidity

Derek Lim, director of research at crypto market maker Caladan, said: “The Bitcoin bull market in 2017 and 2021 was not driven solely by the halving, but from a stronger and more fundamental factor: global liquidity. ”

He believes that as the U.S. government shutdown is resolved, global liquidity may return, thus supporting Bitcoin again.