BTC fell from 120,000 to 90,000. Who is selling in panic and who is increasing holdings against the trend?

Nakamoto 2025-11-22 06:39 7968人围观 BTC

BTC fell from 120,000 to 90,000: who is selling in panic and who is increasing holdings against the trend? When BTC hit a historical high of US$126,000 in early October, it staged a "free fall" decline in just over a month, breaking through the key levels

BTC fell from 120,000 to 90,000: Who is selling in panic and who is increasing holdings against the trend?

When BTC hit a historical high of US$126,000 in early October, it staged a "free fall" decline in just over a month, breaking through the key levels of 110,000 and 100,000, with the lowest falling below US$90,000. The cumulative decline exceeded 25%, and the market value evaporated by more than one trillion US dollars, officially entering the bear market area in the traditional sense. This violent correction was not caused by a single factor, but by the concentrated game of long-term holders, institutional funds, highly leveraged speculators and other forces. Behind the death spiral of "the lower the price, the more you sell", there is both panic selling and an undercurrent of capital that goes against the trend, and the market structure is being drastically restructured.

1. Sell-off camp: Three forces trigger a domino effect

1. Long-term holders: The chips of "faith collapse" are loose

Long-term holders (HODLers), once regarded as market "stabilizers", have become an important driver of this round of decline. Data shows that in the past 30 days, long-term holders have sold more than 320,000 BTC, and some statistics have even reached as high as 810,000 BTC, corresponding to a market value of nearly 80 billion U.S. dollars, setting a new annual selling scale record high. The core reason for these "old players" with a holding period of more than one year to leave the market lies in the fundamental change in expectations for the market outlook: On the one hand, BTC failed to continue its upward momentum after breaking through 120,000 US dollars. The technical aspect showed a clear double top pattern, and there was a strong willingness to take profits in the profit market. ； On the other hand, the tightening of the macro environment and the intensification of regulatory uncertainty have caused the originally firm "believers" to begin to re-evaluate risks and abandon long-term holding strategies. The concentrated release of this part of the chips directly broke the market supply and demand balance and became the "first domino" that triggered the decline.

2. Institutional funds: risk aversion and ETF fund return

The collective "escape" of institutional funds has shaken the core pillar of this round of BTC's rise. The key force that has pushed BTC to exceed US$100,000 this year, the spot BTC ETF, has recently shown significant capital outflows: the US spot Bitcoin ETF has had net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with cumulative withdrawals reaching US$2.3 billion, with the highest single-day net outflow of US$870 million. ETFs owned by giants such as BlackRock have also experienced large withdrawals of US$400 million in a single day. Behind the withdrawal of institutions is a fundamental change in the macro environment: the Federal Reserve postponed its interest rate cut expectations, global liquidity tightened, and the cost of borrowing money increased, making risky assets significantly less attractive. At the same time, traditional risk assets such as U.S. stocks have weakened simultaneously, and the S&P and Nasdaq have fallen one after another. In order to optimize investment portfolios and reduce overall risk exposure, institutions have given priority to selling the most volatile BTC assets. In addition, the stock price of MicroStrategy, once known as the "benchmark of Bitcoin belief", has been close to the fair value of the Bitcoins it holds. The market's confidence in the "belief-based positions" of institutions has completely collapsed, further exacerbating the flight of institutional funds.

3. Highly leveraged speculators: stampede selling with forced liquidation

The liquidation of highly leveraged funds is the core "accelerator" that amplifies the decline. The BTC market leverage ratio reached crazy levels at a high of $120,000, and the open interest in perpetual contracts reached a peak of $70 billion. Retail investors generally used 10-20 times leverage to chase the high, and some platforms even provided 100 times leverage tools. When the price fell below the key support level of US$110,000, an intensive liquidation triggering mechanism was activated: on October 10, there was a forced liquidation of US$19 billion in a single day. Since November, the cumulative number of people liquidated positions exceeded one million. On November 13 alone, 194,000 people liquidated their positions, and the total liquidation amount exceeded US$1.1 billion. These passive liquidation sell orders formed a death spiral of "fall - liquidation - then fall again". Especially after falling below the psychological threshold of $100,000, the wave of panic liquidation intensified, causing BTC to quickly lose multiple support levels in a short period of time. In a market with depleted liquidity, a small number of sell orders can trigger significant price fluctuations.

2. Overweight camp: three types of fund undercurrents that go against the trend

1. Industrial capital: institutional buyers of core assets at the bottom

While the market is falling in panic, some industrial capital is taking the opportunity to buy the bottom. Data shows that when BTC fell to the $95,000 range, large-amount buy orders on cryptocurrency exchanges increased significantly, and the frequency of large-amount transactions of more than 50 BTC increased by 30% month-on-month. These funds mainly come from two types of institutions: First, hedge funds that focus on crypto assets use quantitative strategies to build positions in batches during the decline to capture short-term rebound opportunities. ； The second is industrial capital that is optimistic about the long-term value of the blockchain. It regards this round of decline as a layout window after the "return of valuation" and focuses on absorbing low-priced chips. In addition, some sovereign funds and pension funds in emerging markets are also allocating BTC in small quantities in an attempt to add alternative hedging tools to their asset portfolios. Although the scale is limited, a clear signal for increasing their holdings has been formed.

2. Retail investors who cover their positions at dips: the game of bargain hunting and cost dilution

While institutions and leveraged funds were fleeing, some retail investors chose to buck the trend and enter the market. According to data from the cryptocurrency community, when BTC fell below $100,000, the number of discussions on "buying the dip"-related topics surged by 300%, the number of new account openings on exchanges increased by 15% month-on-month, and the number of small buy orders (less than 1 coin) increased significantly. The logic of increasing holdings of these retail investors is divided into two categories: one is "value investors" who believe that after BTC fell from US$120,000 to US$90,000, the valuation has returned to a reasonable range and has long-term investment value. ； The second is the "cost diluter". Investors who previously held positions in the range of US$100,000 to US$120,000 choose to cover their positions in the range of US$90,000 to US$100,000 to reduce the overall cost of holding positions. However, the scale of funds increased by retail investors is relatively limited, and most positions are built in batches, making it difficult to form a force to reverse the trend. Some bargain hunting funds have even been trapped due to the continued decline, and have fallen into the dilemma of "the more they buy, the more they get trapped".

3. Market makers and exchanges: passive accumulation of liquidity management

Cryptocurrency market makers and exchanges have become “passive increasers” in this round of decline. When market liquidity dries up and a large number of sell orders emerge, in order to maintain market activity, market makers have to passively accept sell orders, forming a periodic increase in holdings. ； At the same time, some exchanges have stabilized market confidence by repurchasing platform coins and increasing their holdings of BTC, thus easing users’ panic withdrawal pressure. In addition, when the margin account was liquidated, the exchange liquidated and disposed of the mortgaged BTC, and some of the liquidated assets that were not sold in time also formed a passive accumulation pattern. This type of accumulation is not an active layout based on price judgment, but a necessary operation for market stability and liquidity management. It will often be gradually realized after the market stabilizes and has limited impact on long-term trends.

3. The core logic behind the long-short game: the triple resonance of emotion, macro and structure

This round of long-short game in which BTC fell from 120,000 to 90,000 is essentially a triple resonance of market sentiment, macro environment and market structure. The core driving force for sellers is "risk aversion": On the macro level, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and global trade frictions (such as the Trump administration's plan to push 100% tariffs) trigger risk aversion ； In terms of market structure, high leverage and ETF fund outflows create a liquidity crisis ； Emotionally, the "Fear and Greed Index" approaches the "extreme fear" range, and the crisis of trust intensifies. The logic of the accumulation party is "valuation repair" and "long-term belief". They believe that the short-term panic decline has over-reflected risks, and the long-term value of BTC as the leading crypto asset has not changed.

Judging from the follow-up trend, the key to the long-short game will focus on three major dimensions: First, whether the support level of $93,000 (closing price in 2024) can be held. If it falls below, it may trigger a new round of selling.； The second is whether ETF fund outflows have stabilized. The return of institutional funds will become an important signal for market reversal. ； The third is macro policy and regulatory dynamics. The Federal Reserve’s policy shift and the implementation of the global encryption regulatory framework may change market expectations. For investors, the current market is highly volatile, and high-leverage operations have proven to be a "fatal trap." However, rationally viewing changes in long and short forces and controlling position risks are the keys to crossing the cycle.

This drop from 120,000 to 90,000 is not only a price correction, but also a "shuffle" of the market ecology: highly leveraged speculators are eliminated, investors who blindly follow the trend pay the price, and funds that truly recognize the value of the blockchain are bucking the trend. When the panic subsides, the value of BTC will return to the core logic of technological innovation and application implementation. The final outcome of the long-short game will ultimately be determined by industry fundamentals.

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Editor | Black Reviewer | Lin Danke

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