BTC alert 82,000: the most important line of defense for bulls!

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 09:24 44917人围观 BTC

Dreamer crypto community was founded in 2020 and is committed to creating a professional and valuable multi-dimensional empowering technology teaching community to help you avoid detours and move forward smoothly! ▶[Trading Talk in the Currency Circle] ◀M

The Dreamer encryption community was founded in 2020 and is committed to creating a professional and valuable multi-dimensional empowering technology teaching community to help you avoid detours and move forward smoothly! ▶[Discussion on currency circle trading]◀

Many people regard trading as watching a TV show, and watching the market every day is as addictive as watching a TV show.

I have compiled my own trading records and found that in the months when I checked the market frequently, the rate of return was actually worse. Just like driving a car, always looking in the rearview mirror can lead to accidents. When you should be looking at the road, focus on the road.

At this stage, who will carry the sedan chair is a key issue. The rhythm of institutional funds entering the market and the FOMO mood cycle of retail investors all take time to brew. People who are eager to call a bull market are mostly because their positions are too heavy and they are under great psychological pressure.

But having said that, you have to have a certain degree of caution when researching the currency in your hand. Some people over-research and complicate simple things. Just like stir-fry, adding too many seasonings will result in an impure taste.

My current strategy is to do all the homework that needs to be done, then wait and act when necessary, and not dwell on short-term noise.

▷ Market Dynamics ‖ Data Interpretation ◁

The current prediction market Polymarket predicts interest rate cuts at 66%, while CME Group predicts 71%:

The good news is that after several Federal Reserve officials collectively announced their doves yesterday, the market began to bet on further interest rate cuts in December. This wave of panic finally stopped.

The bad news is that MSCI, one of the largest stock indexes in the world, plans to remove Bitcoin Micro Strategy Strategy and several others from its own stock indexes.

In the past, a lot of funds entered various micro strategy companies through stock indexes such as MSCI. Therefore, Bitcoin Micro Strategy Strategy has always hoped to be further included in the S&P 500, so that more stock index funds will come in.

The current expectation given by JPMorgan Chase on Wall Street is that once it is confirmed that Strategy has been kicked out, related fund outflows may be US$2.8 billion. If other exchanges and index issuers follow suit, the total outflow may reach US$11.6 billion.

In this round of market conditions, it happens to be ETF + listed treasury micro-strategy companies that are driving the rise. It is hard to say whether they will sell coins in the future, but it is basically certain that the inflow of funds will stop. This also means that MicroStrategy will terminate its fundraising efforts and will be unable to purchase more cryptocurrencies.

And if the cryptocurrency keeps falling, the next financial reports of these companies will not be good, and investors will wait and see even more.

Beware #BTC82,000: Bulls’ most important line of defense! (important)

I scraped the data from the URPD histogram and made it into a data table. We can clearly see in which price ranges BTC is being sold and where funds are buying during the rapid price decline. For example, if we compare the data from November 19th to November 21st, we can find that in fact, the selling of chips on the profit-making side is not too much.

A total of 19,315 BTC were sold at a cost ranging from $1,200 to $82,000.； Only 16,224 chips worth more than $110,000 were sold.

The real largest selling area is $88,000-$89,000, with a total of 64,334 BTC sold.； Followed by $103,503, 26,269 pieces were sold. ； $A total of 22,693 pieces were sold between 93,000 and $94,000 (outlined by the blue dotted line in the picture) ；

On the contrary, the three places with the largest accumulation of chips, including $112,339 (587,229 pieces), $104,765 (430,956 pieces), and $16,409 (410,364 pieces), did not see a large amount of selling (blue arrows in the picture).

This reflects that in the current market decline, most of the chips bought at recent highs are "smashing" the market, while far-end profit-making chips and high-level holding chips are not the main force in the selling.

Maybe we think this is the behavior of short-term/high-frequency funds buying at the end of the rebound and being forced to stop losses. But I think this is only a small part of the factors. The bigger reason is that the trading mechanism of derivatives market makers affects the amplification of short-term volatility.

It can be seen from the option net premium heat map that there was a large number of selling Puts in the range of 9.2w-9.7w before November 13.； When the BTC price approaches the sell-put range, the delta of the market maker becomes more and more negative. In order to remain neutral, it must "buy" BTC to hedge risk exposure, thus forming implicit support.

However, once BTC fell below 9.2w, the Delta sharply became more negative, and the market maker's "risk exposure" instantly became huge, so BTC must be quickly "sold" to hedge, thus promoting an accelerated waterfall decline.

This is the negative feedback caused by option gamma exposure + market maker hedging； The final feedback to URPD is that we see a large number of short-term chips smashing the market.

Finally, back to the present!

We see that a new dense red area has emerged below the current price (as shown in Figure 2), that is, there are a large number of sell Puts in the 8.2w-8.7w range.； If you understand my logical explanation above, then it should not be difficult to understand that when BTC is close to 8.2w, market makers are forced to buy BTC due to the trading mechanism, and a "bottom acceptance structure" is established here.

Therefore, we can see in Figure 1 that a large number of chips were bought in the range of $83,000-$87,000 (outlined by the red dotted line in Figure 1), which corresponds to the intensive sell Put price range.

In other words, $82,000 is the lifeline for bulls right now! Once it falls below 8.2w, market makers will further sell spot to hedge, and will magnify the decline again.

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Planning, advantages, discipline, consistency, risk control, and emotion, these six dimensions determine whether you can grow from a "willful trader" to a "mechanical execution profit maker."

Among these six dimensions, the one most misunderstood by traders is emotional management. Most new traders think they have "emotional problems", but in fact they just haven't experienced systematic training.

Those who seem to be emotionally out of control, such as chasing high prices, taking profits in advance, and not daring to add more money, are often caused by unclear plans, insufficient cognition, and lack of risk control at a deeper level.

Without a clear entry standard, there will naturally be repeated hesitation during the rise.； If you have no psychological expectations for profit and loss retracements, you will naturally panic when profits are taken. ； If you don't understand the boundaries of your trading system, you will naturally not be able to hold positions calmly when you make big profits.

Mature traders are not emotionless (definitely not emotionless), but they never expect to "act on the spot" or "a flash of inspiration", but mechanically execute their trading plan.

Therefore, the key to emotional management is not to suppress one's own nature or shout emotional slogans to embolden oneself, but to repeatedly polish the trading system so that every decision can be self-consistent.

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▶In the currency circle, you have the opportunity to stand on the shoulders of your predecessors, and you can not only learn knowledge, but also accumulate practical experience. The market is turbulent and the currency is floating. There is no shortage of money in the currency circle, but methods and technology!

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▶I have been in the industry for 12 years now. I have experienced many rounds of bulls and bears and am well aware of the charm and challenges of the currency industry. In 2020, I teamed up with experts and technical teams to jointly create Dreamer (Dreamer) market viewing tools, systematic tactics and professional communities. Firstly, it is based on the vision of being willing to hold an umbrella for leeks after getting wet in the rain. Secondly, it is also my own interests and hobbies. I can showcase my skills and get recognition, and at the same time help people in need!

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This article is intended to convey more market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The article only represents the author's opinion. Investment is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market and plan your investment reasonably!

You still need to be hardworking in blacksmithing. Only by improving your cognitive and professional abilities can you master the code of wealth!

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