Further thoughts on the decline of BTC and QQQ

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 10:56 17155人围观 BTC

A few days ago I saw an article about Japanese government bonds, which inspired me a lot. Suddenly, I felt like I had a deeper understanding of the underlying logic of this market. Now the main theme of financial investment in the entire world is actually

A few days ago I read an article about Japan’s national debt, which inspired me a lot. Suddenly, I felt like I had a deeper understanding of the underlying logic of this market.
Now the main theme of financial investment in the entire world is actually no longer AI, nor Crypto，

Rather, it is a more macroscopic and directional trend.——anti-dollar narrative。

1. The background of the times: The anti-dollar narrative is dominating global capital

The anti-dollar narrative is not about shouting "dollar collapse".

but means The U.S. dollar credit structure is inverting。

In the past ten years, the underlying structure of global finance has been like this👇

“The U.S. dollar serves as the anchor, Japan supplies blood, and risky assets suck blood. ”

The Federal Reserve is the global credit center；

Japan relies on zero interest rates to continuously provide cheap funds to the world；

Risk assets such as U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and technology stocks,

It was on this "dollar liquidity conveyor belt" that it was pushed high.

in other words:

The dollar is the engine, Japan is the fuel tank, and global assets are the roar of the engine.

But now, Japan is starting to raise interest rates——

It's like someone pulled the oil line from under the engine.

This is the first shot of the anti-dollar trend.

2. From Crypto to Gold: The shift in liquidity is taking place

The first beneficiaries of the anti-dollar narrative are gold。

It is the consensus asset of all central banks and the most stable "cub" in the anti-dollar system.

In the past two years, central banks around the world have gathered together to buy gold, which is a reflection of this logic.

AI is the first-class narrative right now, and institutions from all over the world are collectively betting on it；

Crypto has taken a back seat.

Just look at the investment pace of VCs - a16z has not had a coin investment project for a year.

Today’s VCs in the currency circle only want to go online, ship goods, and withdraw capital.

It’s not that they are not optimistic, but they know:

Liquidity is being drained away.

3. The truth behind BTC’s plunge: not emotion, but structure

In the past few days, BTC has been trading negative at 12 levels, breaking through all supports along the way.

I was also thinking:

Don’t these institutions care about costs? What on earth are they running away from as they run wildly? why?

Later, combined with QQQ analysis, I came to two possibilities:

Or BTC violent V reverse；
Or QQQ makes up for the decline.

I was still holding on to my fantasy,

Thinking that the U.S. government will open its doors in a few weeks, which will increase liquidity, BTC may rebound.

It wasn’t until I studied the Japanese bond market that I understood——

Maybe it’s not an adjustment; The death knell of liquidity。

4. Alarm for the Japanese bond market: Carry Trade is slowly collapsing

Let’s talk about a key mechanism first:Carry Trade。

Over the past two decades, the world’s largest hidden leverage structures have been:

“Borrow Japanese yen at low interest rates → exchange for US dollars → invest in high-yield assets. ”

For example🌰:

Japanese interest rate ≈ 0%, US interest rate ≈ 5%；
Borrow 100 million yen in exchange for U.S. dollars and buy U.S. bonds or high-yield bonds；
Earning a 5% interest rate spread for nothing in a year is almost a "money printing press" level arbitrage.

In the past few years, a considerable part of global asset prices have been supported by Japan's low interest rate environment.

But in November 2025, Japan's almost immobile pedestal suddenly became loose.

Japanese bond yields, especially long-term varieties such as 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds, are reaching their highest levels in decades.

It will be close to 2.8% in 20 years, around 3.3% in 30 years, and close to 3.6% to 3.7% in 40 years.

For a country that has maintained ultra-low interest rates for a long time, this is a structural turn.

mean:

1️⃣ Japan officially bids farewell to the era of zero interest rates；

2️⃣ Japanese yen assets become attractive again；

3️⃣ Global Carry Trade begins to reverse——

Funds sell U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, BTC, and gold.

Exchange it back for yen and buy Japanese government bonds.

This is Carry Trade Unwind。

5. Why is this an earthquake in global liquidity?

Because the entire world’s bubble assets were raised by Carry Trade.

The Japanese yen is the reservoir, and the United States is the drain valve.

Once Japan raises interest rates, it will be equivalent to draining water from the global financial system.

And Japan’s debt is as high as GDP 260%，

This means that it can neither release water indefinitely, nor can it afford a real interest rate increase.

Raising interest rates will trigger a return of capital, rising debt pressure, and rising inflation.

finally fell into a The financial death spiral。

6. This chain reaction will be conducted like this:

1️⃣ Japan raises interest rates → the cost of borrowing Japanese yen rises → arbitrage liquidation；

2️⃣ Global funds sell U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks, and BTC in exchange for Japanese yen；

3️⃣ U.S. bond yields soar and the U.S. dollar strengthens in the short term；

4️⃣ Risk assets collectively fell, US stocks compensated for their losses, and BTC collapsed；

5️⃣ A liquidity vacuum appears and volatility soars.

This is not market sentiment, but structural deleveraging.

BTC plummeted by 30,000 US dollars, which was the first breaking point of this chain.

7. Why did BTC fall before QQQ?

Because BTC is Global Liquidity Thermometer, while QQQ (Nasdaq) is Liquidity results。

When Japan raises interest rates, the yen appreciates, and U.S. bond interest rates rise, liquidity first evaporates from the Crypto market and then is transmitted to U.S. stocks.

Therefore, BTC is not "collapsing", but the world is feeling the pain of the US dollar's contraction in advance.

8. Gold and Energy: Two Mirrors in the Anti-Dollar Narrative

gold

In the short term, the Japanese yen's interest rate hikes push up real interest rates, putting gold under short-term pressure；

But in the medium term, when the Federal Reserve is forced to release water and global QE restarts,

Gold will become an "anti-US dollar credit anchor."

The wave of central bank gold purchases is superimposed on inflation expectations, and it is only a matter of time before new highs are reached.

In one sentence: under pressure in the short term, take off in the medium term.

Gold is not a refuge, but a starting point for restarting the system.

energy

In the short term, if the U.S. dollar strengthens and demand is expected to decline, oil prices will fluctuate downward.

But when liquidity restarts, China and India increase reserves, and OPEC cuts production,

Crude oil will return to the 100-dollar mark.

The logic of energy is simple:

“The dollar is tight → energy is weak； The dollar loosened → inflation started. ”

9. The essence of this storm: not a Japanese crisis, but an echo of the US dollar

This is not a Japanese problem;

Rather Echoes of the end of the dollar system。

High U.S. interest rates force Japan to make a choice:

Either give up the sovereignty of the local currency and let the Japanese yen depreciate indefinitely.；
Either cut off the dollar arbitrage chain and raise interest rates to resist.

Japan's interest rate hike is actually a forced "anti-dollar awakening."

This means a new phase begins——

De-dollarization, sovereign interest rateization, and multipolarity of liquidity.

In the future, each country will be responsible for its own financing.

The dollar is no longer the only anchor.

10. From Winter to Dawn: The Anti-Dollar Timeline (Guess Version)

stage	event	market performance
2025 Q4 – 2026 Q1	Japan raises interest rates → Carry Trade collapses	U.S. stocks, BTC fall, gold comes under pressure
2026 Q2 – Q4	The Fed restarts QE (Powell steps down), Trump impacts the midterm elections	U.S. stocks, BTC, and gold rebound across the board
2027 and later	Restructuring the global credit system	Dollar weakens, emerging markets rise

Now we are in the coldest winter——

The ultimate stage of liquidity crunch.

The real spring will not come until the "anti-dollar system" is completely established.

11. Personal strategy:

✅ Current stage (2025 Q4)

Control leverage and preserve cash；
U.S. debt + gold as bottom position；
BTC and ETH holdings do not exceed 30%.

✅ First half of next year (2026 Q2)

Japan stops raising interest rates, US turns to rate cuts；
All-out attack: BTC, AI stocks, gold.

This may be the last liquidity bull run.

✅ The end of next year (2026 Q4)

Cash out and exchange for gold and RWA assets；
Prepare to enter the defensive phase of the credit system reconstruction period.

12. Summary: The storm is not the end, but a signal of rebirth.

The collapse of the Japanese bond market is not a local crisis;

Rather Prelude to the Earthquake of the US Dollar Credit System。

Japan's interest rate hike is an "extubation" that will bleed the dollar system；

The anti-dollar narrative is a "blood change" that forces the world to rebuild a new cycle.

And in this exchange of blood:

BTC is just a testing ground；
Gold is the anchor；
Energy is a bargaining chip
AI is hope.

This is not the end of the world,

But it is the starting point of a new financial order.

After the storm, the new currency era has just begun.

The above is purely personal conjecture and does not constitute any investment advice! ! !