Regulatory storm and liquidity crisis: ETH and BTC face major tests in the short term

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 12:07 58564人围观 BTC

Bitcoin's impact on the key $98,000 mark is blocked. The reason behind it is not a simple technical correction, but the concentrated release of multiple macro risks. The SEC regulatory policy has suddenly changed, the giant whales on the chain have moved

Bitcoin's impact on the key threshold of US$98,000 is blocked. The reason behind it is not a simple technical correction, but the concentrated release of multiple macro risks. The SEC regulatory policy has suddenly changed, the giant whales on the chain have moved abnormally, the Layer 2 clearing system is under pressure, and the panic in the derivatives market has created a complex risk map.

Regulatory Black Swan: SEC Presses Pause Button on Crypto ETFs

Bitcoin's current push to reach new all-time highs encountered strong policy resistance at the $98,000 level. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suddenly suspended the approval process for three cryptocurrency ETFs, a move that shattered market expectations for a gradual improvement in the regulatory environment. Different from the previous technical selling pressure, the core driver of this callback comes from policy uncertainty - the regulatory sword is hanging high, which directly shakes the confidence of institutional funds to enter the market, and market panic spreads rapidly.

Regulatory policy shifts often have delayed but lasting destructive effects. The suspension of ETF approval not only affects short-term capital flows, but more importantly, changes the timetable of the crypto-asset compliance process. In the context of the lack of a clear regulatory framework, institutional funds tend to be risk-averse and wait-and-see, which explains why BTC experienced such a sharp correction when it approached the psychological mark of $100,000.

Changes on the chain: giant whale migration and Layer 2 system risks

On-chain data reveals deeper market turmoil. A mysterious address recently performed a rare asset migration, with a total of 120,000 BTC transferred to multiple new addresses in batches. Such large-scale transfer operations usually point to institutional position adjustments or changes in custody structures, which can easily trigger the association of "panic" at sensitive times.

At the same time, the Ethereum ecosystem has experienced rare technical pressure. The amount of liquidation in a single day on the Layer 2 network hit a record high, causing mainnet gas fees to soar by more than 500% in a short period of time, and network congestion was close to paralysis. High gas fees themselves not only inhibit on-chain activities, but may also trigger chain liquidation risks in DeFi protocols - when transaction costs exceed staking returns, forced liquidation will be self-reinforcing, forming a vicious cycle of "congestion-liquidation-congestion again".

Market data panorama: $1.86 billion liquidation and shrinking liquidity

In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network reached US$1.86 billion, a figure that highlights the vulnerability of excessive leverage. In terms of market sentiment indicators, the panic and greed index has dropped to 27, entering the "extreme panic" range, indicating that the confidence of retail investors and short-term funds is on the verge of collapse.

What deserves more attention is the deterioration of liquidity data:

• DeFi lock-up value evaporated by US$12 billion in a week, showing that funds are accelerating to escape from on-chain financial protocols

• The USDT premium rate fell to -2.3%, indicating that the willingness of funds on the market to purchase stablecoin has weakened, which usually indicates a tightening of funds.

• The put-to-call ratio in the options market has broken through the warning line, and the derivatives market is pricing in greater downside risk

Some analysts have warned that the current market leverage ratio has reached a dangerous threshold. Based on historical data model calculations, the probability of a black swan event exceeds 70%.

Derivatives and capital: double warning signs

Structural changes in the options market often lead spot prices. The volume ratio of put options relative to call options continues to rise, which means that professional investors are actively arranging downside protection. This "insurance buying" behavior can itself become a source of selling pressure, especially when market makers are hedging their positions, amplifying volatility.

USDT’s negative premium is another undervalued risk signal. In legal currency channels such as the renminbi, negative premiums not only reflect weakening demand, but may also imply that some regional markets are facing capital outflow pressure or a decrease in demand for trading medium conversion, which poses a potential blow to the crypto market that relies on stablecoin liquidity.

Macro Noise: The "Central Bank Currency Purchase" Rumors That Are Hard to Distinguish between True and False

There are market rumors that a central bank has purchased 30,000 tons of Bitcoin, accounting for 1.4% of the total supply. There are obvious doubts about this data at the factual level - Bitcoin is measured in "coins", and there is conceptual confusion in the expression "tons", and the 1.4% proportion corresponds to approximately 294,000 BTCs, which cannot match the order of magnitude of "30,000 tons." Such unconfirmed news appears frequently in volatile markets and becomes part of the market noise, testing investors' ability to discern.

Conclusion: Risk control takes priority over gaming

The current market is in a complex environment where the triple pressures of regulation, technology, and liquidity are superimposed. For ETH and BTC holders, the core advice is not to predict the bottom, but to conduct strict risk control:

1. Leverage positions should be reduced decisively to avoid becoming fuel for forced liquidation.

2. Pay attention to Layer 2 network congestion relief and determine whether DeFi systemic risks are controllable.

3. Be alert to changes in regulatory news, as policy risks remain the biggest source of uncertainty

4. Stablecoin premium and option data need to be continuously tracked. These two indicators will be the first to reflect the turning point of market sentiment.

In a stage where volatility is extremely amplified, "surviving" is more realistic than "earning a rebound". The market is undergoing a stress test on liquidity, confidence and regulatory expectations. Investors should respond with a defensive attitude and wait for clearer signals of confidence to appear.

Risk warning: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is extremely risky, so please make decisions with caution.