Bitcoin turns 17: Why did the victory of mainstreaming become a new crisis?

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 12:00 64821人围观 BTC

On January 3, 2026, Bitcoin will celebrate its 17th anniversary. This cryptocurrency, which has “not yet reached the legal drinking age”, has completed an astonishing counterattack in less than two decades - from being an object of ridicule in the mainstr

On January 3, 2026, Bitcoin will celebrate its 17th anniversary. This cryptocurrency, which is "not yet of legal drinking age", completed an astonishing counterattack in less than two decades - from being an object of ridicule in the mainstream financial world and a target of hostility of regulators, to becoming a "new financial force" pursued by banks and asset management giants, and even gaining regulatory certainty in the United States.

However, this seemingly successful mainstream victory has now planted hidden dangers for the encryption industry. Bitcoin has fallen from a historical high of $126,000 in early October to around $92,000. What is even more dangerous is that as cryptocurrencies are deeply bound to traditional markets, the chain reaction of this decline has already exceeded industry boundaries, and a risk transmission affecting global investors is quietly taking place.

1. Counterattack in 2017: Cryptocurrency’s “road to mainstreaming and becoming a god”"

Who could have imagined that the "digital seed" planted by Satoshi Nakamoto 17 years ago would grow into a force that shook the global financial system. Looking back at the rise of Bitcoin, every round of key breakthroughs is inseparable from the core logic of "acceptance improvement":

In 2020-2021, the epidemic blockade resonated with global fiscal stimulus. Mainstream brokerages have opened cryptocurrency trading services, allowing ordinary investors to conveniently access this asset for the first time.； From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, the market's expectations for cryptocurrency ETFs reached their peak. Finally, the US SEC approved the first batch of ETF applications, injecting the strongest regulatory endorsement into the industry. ； After Trump wins the election in November 2024, crypto-friendly policies are expected to drive Bitcoin to another rising frenzy.

As of October 2024, the market value of Bitcoin once soared to US$2.5 trillion. Stable coins have obtained a clear regulatory framework from the US legislative body, and banks and asset management companies are rushing to launch encryption-related products. In most parts of the world, as long as you have a mobile phone, you can easily trade a variety of crypto-assets through brokers. The popularity of cryptocurrencies has far exceeded imagination.

Even the previously cautious central bank has seen ice-breaking cases. Crypto enthusiasts cheered this month at the news that the Czech central bank had purchased $1 million in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Although this funding is only a drop in the ocean of its $171 billion in reserves, it is enough to become another evidence of the "mainstreaming" of the industry.

2. The price of victory: benefits run out and growth bottlenecks emerge

Even as the crypto industry celebrates the gains of mainstreaming, the engine of growth has quietly stalled. The core crux of Bitcoin's fall from its high of $126,000 lies in the "depletion of positive narratives."

As a speculative asset that does not generate any cash flow and relies purely on expectations of future capital gains, Bitcoin's rise always requires new "story" support. Nowadays, from clarified supervision to improved investment convenience, all the obvious benefits that can promote the development of the industry have been basically realized. Investors found that they could no longer find new reasons for capital to continue flowing into the market.

More importantly, industry growth faces a ceiling that is difficult to break through—the absence of central bank-level funds. Although the Czech Central Bank’s small-scale test of the waters has attracted attention, the vast majority of central banks around the world have clearly refused to include digital assets in defensive reserves. For the large-scale crypto market, the lack of "ballast" funds such as central banks has severely limited the room for further growth in trading volume.

Cryptocurrency, once regarded as "subverting traditional finance", has now fallen into the paradox of "the more thorough the mainstreaming, the weaker the growth." When it is no longer difficult to obtain Bitcoin, and when the institutional layout is basically completed, this market that relies on incremental funds will naturally face periodic adjustment pressure.

3. Risk spillover: Cryptocurrency fell, why did technology stocks also panic?

If the price correction is a "pain" within the industry, then the deep binding of cryptocurrency to the traditional market has turned this pain into a "systemic reaction."

A key change is occurring since 2020: Bitcoin’s volatility has gradually declined, but its correlation with technology stocks has increased significantly. The logic behind this is simple - as cryptocurrency becomes mainstream, its holders are no longer all "firm believers", but a large number of ordinary investors have poured in. They hold both technology stocks and crypto assets, making the transmission of market sentiment unimpeded.

This linkage effect has been particularly obvious recently: During the ongoing correction in Bitcoin prices, the Nasdaq 100 Index, which has a heavy weight in technology stocks, has fallen by nearly 6% in recent days. Although the decline is still moderate, it is enough to send a danger signal: pessimism about overvalued technology stocks may drag down Bitcoin, and panic selling in the encryption market may also trigger a chain withdrawal of funds from the stock market.

Even more worrying is the high leverage risk within the industry. The software company Strategy is a typical case. Its founder, Michael Thaler, has purchased about $60 billion in Bitcoin through borrowing, turning the company into a "leveraged Bitcoin betting tool." Now, for the first time in two years, the company’s market capitalization is lower than the total number of Bitcoin assets it holds. Once passive selling is triggered, it may trigger a liquidity crisis in the crypto market.

4. The only variable in the future: the Trump administration’s “strategic Bitcoin reserve”?

Faced with growth bottlenecks and risk transmission, is there still a chance for the crypto industry to make a comeback? For now, the only potential catalyst points to the U.S. government’s “strategic Bitcoin reserve.”

When the Trump administration established this reserve mechanism in March 2025, it had high hopes among crypto proponents. But the reality is not satisfactory - as of now, the reserve is mainly used to store Bitcoins confiscated by law enforcement agencies, and has not achieved the "active accumulation" expected by the market.

However, as the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, things may turn around. Crypto-friendly factions, represented by Republican Senator Cynthia Loomis, have been supporting the government’s further purchases of Bitcoin in the open market. If the price correction continues, this stance may be packaged as a "dips-buying opportunity," and many government-related crypto supporters with serious losses may also echo this proposal.

What needs to be clear is that it is unlikely that the U.S. government will actually intervene on a large scale. But whether in cryptocurrency or politics, "black swans" can never be completely ruled out. This potential variable may become the key to breaking the current market deadlock.

Conclusion: 17-year-old Bitcoin, it’s time to say goodbye to its “barbaric growth”

In 17 years, Bitcoin has grown from an unknown digital experiment to an important player in the global financial system. This victory of mainstreaming has allowed cryptocurrency to get rid of the label of "marginal asset", but it has also lost the soil for "barbaric growth" - today it can no longer be isolated from the traditional financial market.

For investors, the biggest risk in the current market is the superstitious illusion that "the bull market will never end." Bitcoin's rising logic has shifted from "policy dividend + popularization dividend" to a bottleneck period of "lack of new stories", and the linkage with technology stocks has made risk transmission uncontrollable.

Bitcoin, 17 years old, is standing at a new crossroads. It may still usher in the next round of rise, but it will definitely need new catalysts ； It may be able to be further integrated into traditional finance, but it must also bear the attendant risk constraints. For each of our investors, only by recognizing the reality that "mainstreaming = risks and opportunities coexist" and abandoning blind optimism can we go further in this financial revolution.

After all, there is no eternal bull market in financial markets, only eternal logic. In the next 17 years, Bitcoin will finally bid farewell to the speculative carnival and move towards a more mature and rational future.