Is Bitcoin correcting or is it a new bear market?

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 12:00 49582人围观 BTC

Bitcoin has begun to show significant weakness, with a recent drop below six figures ($100,000) causing people to reassess the near-term outlook. With the loss of some important technical and on-chain levels, I have recalibrated my base case scenario, whi

Bitcoin has begun to show significant weakness, with the recent move below six figures ($100,000) prompting a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With the loss of some important technical and on-chain levels, I have recalibrated my base case scenario, which puts the probability of a retest of new all-time highs in the coming weeks at less than 50%. This could change quickly if major levels recover, but until then, market conditions appear to be moving away from trend strength and into a correction phase.

“Buying The Dip

Bitcoin has seen a sizable pullback, but buying the dip isn’t always the best approach unless you’re in a confirmed bull trend. In a bear market environment, a budding pullback could still send prices significantly lower. Short-term and impending retracements are typical in downtrending markets, so it becomes even more important to react based on the data, rather than preemptively predict a bottom.

This pattern of multiple pullbacks can be seen in our chart analysis of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price from the last cycle. It is also clear that this indicator acted as a key resistance during this phase and only experienced a sustained rally once BTC regained price levels achieved by short-term holders.

Figure 1: As observed in the previous cycle, there were multiple pullbacks before reaching the market bottom.

But there's a caveat: if price effectively reclaims key levels, the entire picture changes. This is why it may make sense to take a small allocation into this pullback and hold off on further purchases until we see macro consistency in the levels, thereby taking a back-to-defensive approach.

critical observation level

The MVRV Z-Score and Bitcoin Realized Price (Bitcoin Realized Price) provide a clearer indication of where the broader market cost base lies. Currently, the network's implementation cost base is clustered in the $50,000-plus range, but that number is rising every day.

Figure 2: Historically, bear market bottoms usually occur when the BTC price is lower than the actual price.

A similar story is happening with the 200-Week Moving Average, as it is also currently in the $50,000-plus range. Historically, the point where this indicator meets price has provided strong long-term accumulation opportunities.

Figure 3: The 200WMA also suggests $55k is an accumulation point, although it is rising daily.

These are slowly rising each day, which means a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin’s continuation trend lasts. The important takeaway is that value tends to level out when spot prices trade close to the network's historical average cost, with key buy support levels providing consistency.

supply and demand signals

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important indicator for identifying pressure points for long-term and experienced holders. A very low reading indicates a large, long-term hold on a coin that has not been moved, which typically coincides with a market bottom. However, short-term surges can come with capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes major market turning points.

Figure 4: Current VDD multiplier readings indicate that the larger, more experienced players in the market are still very active.

Currently, the indicator continues to rise as prices fall, suggesting that many holders are tired of selling. This is inconsistent with the characteristics of cycle bottoms, which are typically extreme forced selling and compression in the short term. At this stage, the market appears to be gradually releasing rather than exhausting itself. Meanwhile, Long Term Holder Supply (Long Term Holder) Ideally, this indicator should stabilize and start increasing again before any major bottom is confirmed, as bottoms are formed when the most patient players start holding (accumulating) rather than exiting.

funding rate

Periods of extreme fear tend to manifest themselves clearly through large short positions, negative funding rates as shown by Bitcoin Funding Rates, and large realized losses. These conditions indicate that weak players have invested in declines and strong players are absorbing this supply.

Figure 5: The timing of severely negative Bitcoin funding rates is about to focus on significant market lows, often followed by price rebounds.

The market has yet to exhibit the hallmark panic selling and shorting typically associated with sharp cyclical lows. Without the pressure of derivatives markets and the rush to realize losses, it's hard to say the market has completely cleared.

level that must be recovered

Assuming the bearish scenario is wrong, this is of course the preferred outcome. In this case, Bitcoin needs to start regaining key structural levels, including the psychological $100,000 mark, short-term holder realized prices, and the 350-day moving average, as depicted on the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.

Figure 6: BTC must come from a sustained recovery of the 350-day moving average to resume the bullish trend.

Sustained closing prices at these levels, along with strength in global risk assets, would indicate a turning trend. But until then, the data is tentatively leaning toward solidity.

in conclusion

The outlook has become more defensive since the break below several important levels. There are no structural flaws in Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals, but the short-term market structure is not a healthy bull trend.

Currently, my recommended strategies include not buying dips, waiting for consistency to emerge before taking large positions, respecting macro conditions and trends, and only turning aggressive when strength is demonstrated. Most investors can never identify a target top or bottom ； The goal is to position near a high probability area with enough confirmation of the market's excess surplus for several months.

Kind tips

Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative and emotionally volatile. For sound investment, it is crucial that an independent risk management system should be established. Paying attention to one's own investment philosophy rather than blind guessing is a key quality for successful investors.

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I am Xiaolang, and I will continue to pay attention to the dynamics and development trends of the cryptocurrency market in the future.

If you are interested in quantitative trading or want to know more related information, you are welcome to communicate and learn from each other through private messages "Quantitative" in the background.

At the same time, I also thank you for your likes, collections, shares and attention. These supports are the driving force for me to keep moving forward.

I am Xiaolang, and I will continue to pay attention to the dynamics and development trends of the cryptocurrency market in the future.

If you are interested in quantitative trading or want to know more related information, you are welcome to communicate and learn from each other through private messages "Quantitative" in the background.

At the same time, I also thank you for your likes, collections, shares and attention. These supports are the driving force for me to keep moving forward.