Bitcoin rebounded strongly and exceeded US$87,000! The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut detonated the cryptocurrency market

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 12:24 86310人围观 BTC

Behind the sharp rebound is the joint effect of short-seller liquidation and institutional bottom-hunting. Dear comrades in the currency circle, good morning, I am Hengxin! On November 24th, Beijing time, as I mentioned earlier, the cryptocurrency market

Behind the sharp rebound is the combined effect of short-selling liquidation and institutional bargain hunting.

Good morning, fellow currency circle comrades, I am Hengxin! On November 24th, Beijing time, as I mentioned earlier, the cryptocurrency market ushered in a long-awaited strong rebound. Bitcoin once broke through the US$88,000 mark and is now trading at US$86,420, with an intraday increase of 3.33%. Ethereum is currently trading at $2,780, up 2.75% on the day. This rebound occurred after Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000 on Friday. Although a single-day rebound in technical demand does not mean a trend reversal, market sentiment has improved significantly.

01 Early morning quick overview: bulls counterattack, bears rout

Strong rebound over the weekend

Last Friday, Bitcoin briefly fell below the $81,000 mark, reaching as low as $81,500, triggering market panic. However, bulls made a strong counterattack during the weekend, and Bitcoin rebounded from the low of more than $6,500 and regained the important psychological level of $86,000.

Ethereum follows suit

Ethereum also performed well, rebounding strongly from a low near $2,700 to the current level of $2,829, showing the linkage effect of altcoins and Bitcoin. Ethereum’s current intraday trading range is between $2,768-2,851.

Liquidation data are still tragic

Despite the rebound, the liquidation data is still shocking. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, nearly 120,000 people have liquidated their positions in the cryptocurrency market, and short positions have been hit hard in the rebound. This also explains why the rebound was so rapid—shorts were forced to liquidate their positions, accelerating the rally.

02 Technical Analysis: Oversold rebound or trend reversal?

Bitcoin technical analysis

Analysis of key technical indicators

From the daily level, there are some positive signals from Bitcoin’s technical side:

● RSI indicator: It once fell to the extreme oversold area of 22.39. Although it has rebounded, it is still at a relatively low level, and there is technical space for continued rebound.

● Bollinger Bands Analysis: The price rebounded strongly after touching the lower track of the Bollinger Bands, and is currently moving towards the middle track of $91,000.

● Moving Averages: Bitcoin remains below all major moving averages, with the 50-day EMA at $107,644 and the 200-day EMA higher, with the medium-term trend still to turn.

Key position analysis

● Resistance levels: US$88,000-89,000 (the upper Bollinger Band and early intensive trading area), US$91,000-91,682 (7-day SMA area)

● Support levels: $84,000-85,000 (starting point of recent rebound), $80,600 (strong support)

Wave pattern analysis

From an Elliott Wave Theory perspective, Bitcoin may be running a correction wave. Analysts previously confirmed a bearish wave count, with five impulse waves falling from $126,000 to $104,000, which may currently be in a correction phase.

Ethereum technical analysis

Key technical indicators

Ethereum technicals also show signs of rebound:

● RSI indicator: It once fell to a severely oversold level of 27.14, and there is a strong demand for a technical rebound.

● MACD indicator: Although the histogram is still negative -37.37, extreme negative values often indicate the exhaustion of selling pressure

● Bollinger Band Analysis: The price rebounded after testing the lower track support and is currently running towards the middle track of $3,300.

Key position analysis

● Resistance levels: $2868.5 (4-hour upper Bollinger Band), $2900-2950 (preliminary resistance zone), $3200-3285 (20-day moving average and strong resistance)

● Support levels: US$2,780 (middle track of 4-hour Bollinger Bands), US$2,753 (key support level), US$2,700-2,770 (intraday support)

Morphological analysis

Ethereum is building a potential double bottom pattern near $2,700. If it can effectively break through the neckline of $2,900, the technical measurement target can reach the $3,100-3,200 area.

03 News analysis: Three major factors drive the rebound

Fed rate cut expectations soar

The most important good news comes from the macro level. New York Fed President Williams, known as the Fed's No. 3 figure, said on Friday that the current weak labor market poses a threat to the economy that outweighs inflationary pressures and he believes the Fed still has room to cut interest rates further.

This statement directly led to the interest rate futures market's expectation that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December surged to about 70%, almost double from less than 40% a day ago. In addition, the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 58%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 22%.

Well-known institutions bucked the trend and bought dips

Amid a sharp correction in cryptocurrency and investor confidence wavering, Ark Investment (ARK), a well-known institution helmed by Cathie Wood, is bucking the trend.

On Friday, ARK once again bought shares in cryptocurrency exchange Bullish, Bitcoin mining company BitMine, stablecoin issuer Circle, and online brokerage Robinhood. On Thursday before, ARK spent $10.1 million to buy Coinbase shares and $9.9 million to buy BitMine shares, clearly indicating that ARK is taking advantage of the market correction to systematically increase its holdings on the stocks of cryptocurrency-related technology companies that it is optimistic about.

technical rebound demand

From a purely technical perspective, this rebound is inevitable. The Bitcoin RSI once fell to 22.39, and the Ethereum RSI once fell to 27.14, both of which are historically extremely oversold levels. In this technical state, even if there is no good news, the market itself has a strong demand for a rebound.

04 Operation: How to deal with this rebound

(today)

Bitcoin

● Bulls: After the correction reaches the range of 85,500-86,000 US dollars and stabilizes, you can go long with a light position, with a target of 87,500-88,000 US dollars.

● Short: If the rebound reaches the range of 88,500-89,000 US dollars and is blocked, you can go short with a target of 87,000-86,500 US dollars.

Ethereum

● Bulls: After pulling back to the $2,700-2,750 area and stabilizing, you can try long positions with a target of $2,850-2,900.

● Short: Rebound to the range of 2850-2900 US dollars, short on rallies, target 2780-2750 US dollars

05 Outlook for the market outlook: Analysis of rebound sustainability

positive factors

1. The Federal Reserve’s policy shift: the increased probability of interest rate cuts provides a better liquidity environment for risky assets

2. Technically oversold: Although the extreme oversold condition has been partially repaired, there is still room for rebound

3. Institutional bargain hunting: The counter-trend layout of well-known institutions such as Ark Investment provides confidence to the market

risk factors

1. The trend remains unchanged: Bitcoin is still below all major moving averages, and the medium-term trend has not yet clearly turned bullish.

2. Economic uncertainty: There are still differences within the Federal Reserve on cutting interest rates, and there are variables in future policies.

3. Rebound resistance: Bitcoin has strong resistance in the $88,000-89,000 area, and a breakthrough requires volume support.

Focus on signals

● Can Bitcoin break through $88,000: If it breaks through this position, the next target will be $90,000

● Can Ethereum hold on to $2,780: This is an important support today. If it holds, it will look at $2,900.

● Fed officials’ stance: Pay attention to subsequent Fed officials’ stance on monetary policy

06 Summary and reminder

The strong rebound this morning brought a glimmer of light to the market. Bitcoin not only regained the $86,000 mark, but also showed the bears the ability of the bulls to fight back. However, Hengxin needs to remind all comrades that a single-day rebound does not mean a trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, the $86,000-$88,000 area will become a key battle zone during the day. If it can hold on to this area, the market is expected to further test the resistance area of 89,000-90,000 US dollars upward.

In terms of news, rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have become the main catalyst for this round of rebound, while institutional bottom-buying behavior has provided fundamental support for the market. The combination of these factors makes this rebound somewhat sustainable.

In terms of operation, Hengxin advises comrades to stay calm:

● Don’t change your overall strategy just because of a big one-day rise.

● You can participate in the rebound in the short term, but you need to set a strict stop loss

● Medium and long-term investors can still wait for better entry opportunities

Although the market shows strength in the short term, Hengxin believes that a sound investment strategy is far more important than chasing short-term fluctuations. At the current position, it is neither appropriate to chase highs blindly nor to be overly pessimistic. Maintaining a cool head and strict discipline is the way to survive in the long term.

Big ups and downs are the norm in the market. In this volatile market, staying rational, controlling risks, and following the trend are the keys to long-term profitability. I am Hengxin, we will continue to pay attention to market dynamics and provide you with the latest market analysis!

Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents personal opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. Market risks are huge, investment needs to be cautious, please make decisions based on your own judgment.