Bitcoin/Ethereum’s latest on-chain data + support level analysis: Hold on to these two keys, don’t rush to cut the meat

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 12:53 45217人围观 BTC

Today we will specifically dismantle the core support levels and long and short signals of Bitcoin and Ethereum to help you find the correct decision-making direction in the shock - after all, calmness at this moment is far more valuable than blind opera

Today we are dedicated to dismantling the core support levels and long and short signals of Bitcoin and Ethereum to help you find the correct decision-making direction in the shock - after all, calmness at this moment is far more valuable than blind operations.

1. Current core market conditions and key support/pressure levels (as of November 24)

The currency’s latest price decline in November is a key support level and a short-term pressure level.

Bitcoin (BTC) $95,000 24.6% First support: $93,000； Strong support: $89,000 (staged low) ； Ultimate support: $85,000 First pressure: $96,000 ； Strong pressure: $100,000 (psychological threshold)

Ethereum (ETH) $3195 24.8% First support: $3000 (psychological threshold)； Strong support: $2880 ； Ultimate support: $2,800 First pressure: $3,280 ； Strong pressure: $3,500

Note: If the support level falls below, it will drop to the next range. A breakthrough of the pressure level can alleviate the short-term downward trend.

2. Key signals on the chain: What reversal clues are hidden in panic?

Bitcoin (BTC): Selling pressure weakens, whales start hunting the bottom

1. Selling pressure signal: Trading volume has dropped by 26% month-on-month in the past seven days, and there has been no heavy volume decline after falling below $90,000, indicating that the panic selling is coming to an end.；

2. Whale trends: In the range of US$92,000-95,000, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC increased their holdings by 12,000, and the wave of reduction in early November has stopped；

3. Value support: The MVRV ratio dropped to 1.76 (lower than 2 is an underestimation range), and the production cost of Bitcoin reached US$94,000, which is close to the current price, and the room for decline is limited；

4. Sentiment indicator: The fear and greed index is 16 (extreme fear), but the profit supply percentage (PSIP) is less than 70%. Historically, the appearance of this data is often accompanied by a short-term rebound.

Ethereum (ETH): Layer 2 technology supports the bottom line, and institutions are still optimistic about it in the long term

1. Technical signal: The RSI indicator fell to 33.2, close to the oversold range, and a stop signal appeared on the daily line. The $2880-2800 range is historically strong support, and the correction is limited.；

2. Fund trends: Despite the overall outflow of crypto funds, Ethereum Layer 2-related ecological funds have a net inflow of US$180 million, and institutions regard it as "the most potential practical asset"；

3. Position structure: The selling volume of long-term holders (positions held for more than 1 year) dropped by 32% month-on-month. Firm holders did not panic and left the market, and the stability of the chips improved.

3. Operational suggestions: How to deal with different position statuses?

1. Already have a position (especially a four-year-old position)

• Core principles: Don’t panic and cut the meat, reduce leverage (the current market leverage ratio is 18%, and there is still a risk of liquidation with leverage above 20 times)；

• Coping strategy: If it falls below the strong support of $89,000 and the volume is high, you can reduce your position to avoid risks.； If the support is not broken, hold it and wait for the rebound opportunity after the pressure level of $96,000 is broken. ；

• Taboo: Do not blindly cover positions in the range of 89,000-93,000 US dollars. You need to wait for clear stabilization signals (such as the closing price on the 3rd firming the support level).

2. Over-the-counter funds (want to buy the bottom)

• Short-term (1-3 months): Only open positions in batches at strong support levels (BTC $89,000, ETH $2,880), and the position should not exceed 20% of the total funds.；

• Long-term (more than 1 year): BTC of US$90,000-100,000 and ETH of US$3,000-3,200 are both undervalued. Positions can be established in 3-4 batches, ignoring short-term fluctuations.；

• Taboo: Do not fill your position all at once to avoid being stopped out due to the shock of $85,000-89,000.

3. Leverage traders

• Bulls: Only place small positions at strong support levels (BTC89,000, ETH28.8 million), and set stop loss below the ultimate support level (BTC84,000, ETH27.5 million)；

• Shorts: Short-term shorting is available in the range of US$96,000-100,000, with stop loss set at US$102,000 to avoid the risk of rebound caused by the Fed's policy shift.

4. Key variables in the future: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on December 10

The current market pricing probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December is 44.4%. If inflation data falls and interest rate cut expectations are rekindled, Bitcoin may trigger a 15%-20% rebound (verified by historical data). On the contrary, if high interest rates are maintained, the ultimate support of US$85,000 may be tested, but the logic of long-term liquidity easing has not changed, and the decline is still a correction within the cycle rather than a trend reversal.

The bull and bear situation in the currency circle is never a single point of prediction, but a combination of data + cycle + discipline. For old investors who have held it for four years, the shrinkage of 120,000 to 90,000 US dollars is certainly distressing, but the range of 85,000 to 90,000 US dollars is more likely to be a "golden pit" in the cycle rather than a "bottomless pit."