Has the four-year Bitcoin cycle expired?

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 13:42 27383人围观 BTC

The Bitcoin cycle is "deforming": This time, why doesn't it seem to be rising? Your various doubts recently have made me anxious about the market. It happened to be the weekend, so I calmed down and did a wave of review: from the fourth halving in April 2

The Bitcoin cycle is “deforming”: Why doesn’t it look like it’s going up this time? Your various doubts recently have made me anxious about the market. It happened to be the weekend, so I calmed down and did a round of review:
From the fourth halving in April 2024 to October 2025 when Bitcoin hit $126,000, Bitcoin has completed another nearly 18-month cycle path.

If you only look at the timeline, it still seems to be running according to the "classical four-year cycle": halving → supply tightening → bull market surge → peaking callback.

But this time, what confuses everyone is not whether it has risen or not, but: it has not risen as usual.

There is no craziness like 2017, which lasted ten times in three months； There is no craze about currency prices in 2021, when everyone is talking about it ； Even the altcoin market is weak.

What’s even weirder is: less than 30 days after hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin fell from US$125,000 back to US$90,000, a retracement of more than 25%.

So everyone began to wonder: “Is the four-year cycle invalid? ”“Is this round a bull market or a bear market? ”

Today Yong Qi will analyze three things in depth:

Why do many people feel that the four-year cycle is no longer working?
What core logic remains valid in the four-year cycle?
Why is this cycle disrupted? What are the structural reasons behind this?

1. Why do more and more people feel that the four-year cycle is not working?

This round of market conditions has revealed something "something wrong" from beginning to end.

1) Prices rise slowly, weakly, and briefly

Although Bitcoin hit a record high in October 2025, the entire round of gains was significantly weaker than the previous three rounds:

Judging from the increase, this round is actually the weakest of the four cycles. If calculated from the halving point (April 2024), the increase will be only Less than 2 times, which has never happened before in history.

2) Emotions are gone: altcoins are not rising and retail investors are not coming

What were the hallmarks of past bull markets?

The activity on the chain has skyrocketed, copycats have doubled, the number of retail account openings has surged, and social media is full of FOMO emotions.

But this round: Bitcoin dominance rate (BTC.D) has always been hovering at a high level of 57%–59%； The growth rate of altcoins is extremely weak, Ethereum has not even risen to 1W, and other narratives have only short-lived prices. ； Many previously popular tracks (NFT, GameFi) have received almost no attention

This is a typical "institutional cow". But it is also a "cow in the absence of retail investors." There are no retail investors, no abnormal emotions, no FOMO, so there is no bubble top.

3) After ETF dominance, the market rhythm changed

After spot ETFs are launched in 2024, the market will officially enter the "institutional era."

Institutions are slow funds: they value long-term allocation, have risk control, and will not chase high. They will reduce their positions if they rise too fast, and they will increase their positions if they fall too much.

This makes the market: smoother and more stable, but also less likely to have crazy terminal bubbles.

The most typical example: ETF funds have accumulated net inflows of over US$37 billion from January 2024 to June 2025.
But starting from September 2025, there began to be net outflows for many consecutive weeks.

Past week: The largest single-day outflow was US$523 million. Cumulative outflows in October exceeded US$2 billion.

This means that this round is not a stage of "institutions supporting the move", but a stage of "institutions reducing positions". The overall structure determines the lack of enthusiasm in the market.

2. Which of the four-year cycle theories are still valid?

Despite the "chaotic appearance," the underlying logic of the four-year cycle is actually still valid.

2.1 Tightening of supply due to halving is still the core driving force

The fourth halving in 2024: the daily number of new Bitcoins increases from 900 to 450, and the annual number of new Bitcoins decreases by approximately 160,000. Although 94% of Bitcoin has been mined and the marginal impact of halving is decreasing, the supply reduction is still effective in the long term.

Data support:

From 2022 to 2025, the realized market capitalization (Realized Cap) will increase by more than 70%. The proportion of long-term holdings (LTH) will remain at around 70%, which is the highest range in history.

This shows that funds still choose to "buy and hold" and the supply and demand structure is still tight.

2.2 The indicators on the critical chain still show a complete cycle

(1) MVRV (valuation cycle)

End of 2023 low: 0.8 (extremely undervalued)

End of 2024 high: 2.8 (high but not crazy)

October 2025: Falling back to 1.9 → still showing an obvious cycle structure of “bottom → overheating → correction”.

(2) SOPR (profit and loss cycle)

2022: Long term below 1 (bear market)

2023–2025: Long-term maintenance >1 (bull market profit period) → the market is still following a typical bull market SOPR structure.

(3) RHODL (top warning)

2021: Entering the Red Zone (Top)

2025: High but not in the “extreme red zone” → Current position is “near the top but not an epic bubble”.

The data on the chain tells us: the cycle still exists, but this round of highs has been digested in advance.

2.3 Decreasing growth rate is an inevitable trend

The market value of Bitcoin is doubling every round, and it is almost impossible to increase it dozens of times again.

Looking at the past four rounds: the increase at the top showed "exponential decay"”； Peak-to-peak prices are also converging ； Cycle times are increasingly consistent (~16–20 months)

The four-year cycle has not failed, but it has changed from "emotionally driven" to "structurally driven" and from "intuitive surge" to "gentle rise + high shock."”

3. The key reasons why this cycle is disrupted:

There are too many variables and the narrative is too fragmented.

In past cycles, there was only one force: reduced miner supply → skyrocketing currency prices

There are at least five forces acting simultaneously:

1) ETF + institutional funds change the supply and demand structure

Three key impacts of ETFs:

(1) Institutions are slow funds, causing the market to slow down: Institutions will not rush into FOMO like retail investors.

(2) The cost of holding positions forms structural support: the average holding price of ETF in 2024-2025 is about US$89,000 → this becomes the price support area.

(3) A large amount of reduction in positions caused the market to end prematurely: ETFs experienced continuous outflows from September to October 2025 → causing the market to peak early at US$125,000. The market here was "initially ended by institutions", which has never happened in past cycles.

2) The narrative of hot topics is fragmented, making it difficult to form a mainline bull market

In 2020–2021, there are: DeFi → NFT → GameFi → DAO, which is a continuous narrative chain that can promote the widespread attraction of funds. And what about 2024–2025?

ETF Open, Inscription/Ordinals, Solana Meme, Crypto AI, AI Agent, InfoFi, x402, Prediction Market, Socialfi, RWA……

There are too many narratives, too fast, and too short-lived, and it is difficult for funds to "concentrate and explode". Without the main line, there would be no national bull market.

3) Reflexively advance the overdraft market

Everyone knows that “12–18 months after the halving is the bull’s top.” So the result is: institutions reduce positions in advance in September 2025, copycats cash out in advance, retail investors wait for the top in advance and dare not buy, and market makers suppress volatility in advance

The market, which was supposed to peak in early 2026, was overdrawn 3-6 months in advance.

The cycle has not disappeared, it has just been predicted by everyone in advance, causing it to end prematurely.

4. Horizontal comparison of market views (important)

In order to make the conclusion more comprehensive, we have compiled the key opinions of well-known KOLs on this round of market conditions:

KOL	Summary of opinions
@BTCdayu	The cycle is dead and the market has officially entered the "institutional era"”
Bitwise CEO @HHorsley	Cycle failure → Market has been in a bear market for six months
@Wolfy_XBT	The cycle never expires → This bull market ended on October 6
@0xSunNFT	The big cycle is still there, but the rhythm and structure are more complex
@lanhubiji	Cycle "deformation" requires new methods to understand

The contrast between these views is huge, and the reason behind it is that everyone uses completely different market frameworks.

Yong Qi’s point of view is closer to the fourth and fifth types: the cycle is still there, but it has been “deformed”.

5. Future market framework: What do ordinary people think?

The most realistic advice is:

(1) Stop using the simple “halving timetable” to judge whether bulls or bears are bullish.

There are now more factors affecting the market: ETF capital flows, macro liquidity, leverage structure, institutional positions, strength of copycat narratives, miners’ selling pressure, U.S. bond interest rates, U.S. stock cycles, etc.

The cycle has become a "multivariable system."

(2) This is the defensive phase, not the offensive phase

ETFs continue to outflow, Bitcoin rebounds weakly, copycats have no performance, on-chain activity declines, and the narrative is no longer the main line

This is not a "main rising wave", this is more like a "local rebound + escape wave".

(3) The real bottom will not be in place at once

Historical experience tells us: Because there is now ETF structural support, the depth will not be as exaggerated as before.

But the bottom still needs "repeated shocks + leverage reduction + ETF stop outflow" to be formed.

6. Conclusion: The cycle is not dead, you just need a new way of reading it

For us ordinary retail investors, the most realistic approach may not be to predict the cycle, but we can try to build our own market perception, such as learning to use data to assist judgment, avoid the traps caused by emotional fluctuations, and look for cost-effective opportunities instead of chasing every hot spot. The four-year cycle has not expired. It just starts from:

Emotion-driven → Structure-driven

Dominated by retail investors → dominated by institutions

Single-line narrative → multi-line fragments

Supply and demand fluctuations → funding variables

This round of rising phase is most likely over. Now it is a combination structure of "high shock + institutional reduction of positions + capital outflow". There may still be a rebound in the future, but it will be more like a "runaway market."

So now is the defensive stage. The most important thing is to retain funds and don’t go all in easily.

At this stage: surviving is more important than guessing correctly.

Deep observation·Independent thinking·Value is more than price.

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Finally: Many of the opinions in this article represent my personal judgment on the market and do not constitute suggestions for your investment. If you don’t understand anything, you can scan the QR code and send me a private message on WeChat. WeChat: aswq518 Welcome everyone to follow the Wall Street Crypto Intelligence Bureau and don’t miss the latest in-depth investment research analysis of the currency circle:

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