Bitcoin fell below $82,000, you must know these 10 things

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 14:34 5人围观 BTC

01 Plunge: Bitcoin’s “Black Friday” For Bitcoin, last Friday was a veritable “Black Friday.” On November 21, Bitcoin fell below the $82,000 mark and once approached the $80,000 mark. Compared with the historical high of US$126,000 just hit on October 6, t

01

Plunge: Bitcoin’s ‘Black Friday’”

For Bitcoin, last Friday was a veritable “Black Friday.”

On November 21, Bitcoin fell below the $82,000 mark and once approached the $80,000 mark. Compared with the historical high of $126,000 just hit on October 6, it has fallen by a full 35%. In these 24 hours, the total amount of liquidated positions across the entire network exceeded an astonishing US$1 billion. Hundreds of thousands of traders lost all their money in this plunge.

Oh my god. $1 billion.

Although it is normal for Bitcoin to go up and down. But why did it come so violently and suddenly this time?

I'll try to sort it out for you.

This starts with the direct cause of the plunge:

Professional institutions sold a large number of Bitcoin ETFs in their hands.

02

Bitcoin ETF: A "Pork Ticket" for Bitcoin”

What is a “Bitcoin ETF”?

You want to invest in pork. Because you think the price of pork will rise.

But in the past, you had to raise your own pigs. It’s time-consuming and labor-intensive, and the risks are high. But now, a trust company has emerged. He bought 1 million pigs and put them in a professional pig pen. Then, the ownership of these 1 million pigs was divided into 100 million "pork tickets", and these notes were listed and traded on the stock exchange. Therefore, you only need to open a stock account and buy "pork tickets" just like buying and selling stocks. Or you can rename it and call it "Pork ETF".

That’s right, this “pork ticket” is an ETF. Its full name is Exchange-Traded Fund. Exchange-traded open-end index funds.

The so-called Bitcoin ETF is a "Bitcoin ticket." This allows you to not hold real Bitcoins, but follow the rise and fall of Bitcoins and enjoy the profits and losses it brings.

In January 2024, it was finally officially approved by US regulatory agencies. Why was it approved? There are many reasons. But the direct reason for the approval was that the regulator lost a key lawsuit to the encryption company. At the same time, Wall Street financial giant BlackRock also took the lead in applying. Eventually, regulation had to open the floodgates.

From now on, not only gold and oil have ETFs. Bitcoin also has ETFs.

However, although ETFs will not change the properties of Bitcoin. However, it completely changes the way in and out.

On the one hand, it is a "super pick-up lane." A large amount of money can flow in easily. On the other hand, it is also a "super drop-off channel". These funds can be withdrawn from the battlefield at an unprecedented speed.

So, why do all the professional institutions sell Bitcoin ETFs in large quantities and withdraw from the battlefield as fast as possible?

It's because they heard a series of "hawkish remarks" from the Federal Reserve.

03

Hawks’ comments: Don’t even think about it, we will never cut interest rates

What hawkish remarks?

Take a recent example.

On November 20, 2025, the day before the plunge, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech. Let’s take a look at his actual words first.

While we acknowledge that some progress has been made, inflation remains stubbornly above our 2% target. It would be extremely premature to declare victory now, or to start speculating on the timing of a rate cut. We are fully prepared to maintain a tightening policy stance - that is, to keep interest rates "higher for longer" - until we are confident that the task of fighting inflation is truly accomplished.

There is a lot of key information in this speech. For example, inflation remains stubborn ； For example, it is extremely premature to speculate on interest rate cuts now. ； For example, keeping interest rates "at higher levels for longer."

The translation is, "Stop dreaming, the problem is more serious than you think."”； “Your previous expectations of an interest rate cut in December were completely wrong and based on wishful thinking. I officially deny it” ； “The high interest rate environment will become the new normal in the future, not a temporary one. The party is over”.

But if you want to summarize it into the core conclusion, it can actually be summarized in one sentence.

“I can tell you right now, we will not cut interest rates. ”

However, what does not cutting interest rates have to do with institutional selling?

Because Powell's speech is equivalent to telling the market that the "new debt" of U.S. Treasury bonds will have higher interest rates.

04

New bond rates: Money’s ‘official guide’”

Why? Why will there be higher interest rates on new debt if “without an interest rate cut”?

You can think of the financial market as a "supermarket of money."

Fed, is the general manager of this supermarket. In his hand, there is a special counter. Called, the official risk-free financial management counter. Not cutting interest rates is equivalent to the general manager shouting with a loudspeaker, my official counter will continue to provide an annualized interest of 5.5%. And, there’s zero risk.

This 5.5% is the "official guide price" of the entire Money Supermarket.

Now, the U.S. government, as a stall owner, needs to issue a new batch of IOUs, that is, new Treasury bonds, to borrow money from customers. So, can he give 3% interest? no. Because customers will think, am I crazy? Then why don't I deposit the money directly into the general manager's counter with an annualized rate of 5.5%?

That's right, the effect of the official guide price is that any bond that is "more expensive" (lower interest rate) than it cannot be sold.

Therefore, in order to really be able to borrow money, the new debt issued by the U.S. government must have an interest rate consistent with the official interest rate of the Federal Reserve. Even higher. For example, 6%.

This is the causal relationship between "no interest rate cut" and "new debt interest rates will be high."

However, this new debt is a matter of the future after all. Not sent yet. So why do institutions start selling now?

Because everyone knows that as soon as this "expectation" appears, asset prices will begin to plummet.

05

Expectation: The market will use the "price drop" method to adapt to the "yield rate"”

why is that?

Because no one is a fool. When assets with higher yields are about to appear and the interest cannot be changed, assets with low yields will use the method of "falling in price" to increase their yields.

Just like you spent 2 million to buy a house. The annual rent is 100,000. My rental yield is 5%. If the rent cannot change and the price drops by half to 1 million, the rental yield will immediately double to 10%, and someone may be willing to buy it.

In the same way, when it is expected that there will be new debt with an interest rate of 6% in the future, many people will throw away the old debt with an interest rate of only 3%. Old bonds are sold off in large quantities and prices fall.

When did it fall? The details are very intricate. But in general, the price of old bonds will continue to fall until its yield rises to basically the same level as the expected yield of new bonds, and the market finds a new equilibrium.

So, sell now. Because there are good prices now.

Moreover, it is not only necessary to throw away old debts, but also high beta assets like Bitcoin, which must be thrown away quickly.

06

High-Beta Assets: “Grumpy” assets that everyone gets and throws away

What is a "high beta asset"?

You can think of Beta as an indicator of "the bad temper of an asset."

If you think of the beta value of the entire market as 1, it's like an ordinary family car. Those assets with particularly high Beta values are F1 cars. On sunny days (Risk-On), many people like to drive racing cars. Because it has the opportunity to bring excess returns. But on rainy days (Risk-Off), many people will enter the risk-avoidance mode and sell their race cars that are prone to losing control and exchange them for safer family cars.

Bitcoin is a typical high-Beta asset. Therefore, throw it first. Even on a large scale. Data shows that in the weeks before November 21, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF alone experienced five consecutive weeks of net outflows. The cumulative amount of sales reached US$2.6 billion.

All right. Therefore, institutions sold these assets to avoid risks. But why did it cause another crash in which hundreds of thousands of people were liquidated?

Because of the actions of the institutions, a panic stampede was triggered.

07

Panic stampede: boulders rolling down, crowds fleeing, serial explosions

What is a "panic stampede"?

At first, it was boulders rolling down.

As the main force, the selling of institutions, even if it is rational, is equivalent to pushing a boulder down from the top of the mountain. The market's buying and selling balance is broken. Prices began to show their first wave of decline.

Then, the crowd fled.

Thousands of retail investors, when they see the falling boulder, are easily dominated by fear and begin to sell. Because even big institutions have run away, and if we don’t run away, it will be too late. As a result, the scope of the selling began to increase, and the price decline accelerated.

Finally, a series of explosions.

The accelerated decline in prices triggered the "forced liquidation" of leveraged trading. That is, liquidation. After that, spiral downward. The price falls, triggering liquidation. Liquidate positions and further lower prices. Lower the price and trigger more liquidations……

In the world of investment, fear runs faster than greed. What runs faster than fear is a computer program.

So, why is Bitcoin plummeting?

It's because the Fed's hawkish comments make new bonds extremely attractive. In order to avoid risks, institutions prioritized selling high-risk Bitcoin and selling old debt at the same time. The large-scale selling of Bitcoin eventually triggered panic and collapse in the market.

Yes. In essence, this is to take advantage of the US government.

08

Gathering the wool of the US government: Capital has no belief, only flow

What is "plundering the wool of the U.S. government"?

Let me tell you a funny story.

In order to rectify traffic order in the city (to combat inflation), the police chief (Federal Reserve) ordered that the vaults of the downtown bank (U.S. government) must be unlocked 24 hours a day. Anyone who wants to get money can just go in.

The bank president was unhappy. But you can only do it.

And Xiao Wang, who originally drove a modified racing car (Bitcoin), was preparing to take an adventure. As soon as he heard about unlocking the door, he immediately sold the car and went to the bank that had zero risk and was encouraged by the police chief to get the money that was guaranteed to be profitable.

This is "sweeping wool".

Specifically, sell high-risk assets like Bitcoin and use the money in exchange to buy risk-free Treasury bonds that the U.S. government (and ultimately taxpayers) pay with gritted teeth and have high interest rates.

Capital has no belief, only flow.

The collapse of Bitcoin has once again proved this truth.

However, this is too absurd. Why is the Federal Reserve going against the US government?

Because they have their own responsibilities.

09

Throttle and Brake: Keeping your classic car from falling apart

The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are like the "accelerator" and "brake" of a car.

The U.S. government (Treasury Department), is the gas pedal. Its mission is to spend money, borrow money, and stimulate the economy. Therefore, it hopes to borrow money with as low an interest rate as possible.

The Federal Reserve is the brake. Its mission is to maintain price stability (control inflation) and maximize employment. To prevent the engine from overheating (inflation) caused by driving too fast, it sometimes applies the brakes (raising interest rates or maintaining high rates). Although many times, this makes the person pressing the accelerator feel very uncomfortable.

And this kind of institutional design that takes the brakes away from politicians is called "central bank independence." The purpose is to prevent a greater disaster. That is, hyperinflation. Because in history, there have been countless governments that after taking control of the money printing press, they printed money like crazy, eventually leading to economic collapse.

So, it seems, they are working against each other. But their ultimate goal is the same: to ensure that this 200-year-old classic car in the United States does not fall apart.

10

Complex systems: Never “anthropomorphize” the system”

alright. Back to Bitcoin.

So, will Bitcoin continue to fall, or will it rise?

Hard to say.

But perhaps what we should learn from this so far is "don't anthropomorphize the system."

Some people say that this crash is a conspiracy of some bookmakers and some bad people doing evil.

I don't know if there is. But I want to believe that this is a choice made by countless individuals in the system, such as the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government, institutions, and retail investors, under their own rules and motivations, at least what they think is beneficial. And these choices came together to finally create the situation we see today.

So, don’t try to find enemies in the system, but try to find patterns in the system.

Then, you can have a clearer understanding than others.

Even, see clearly the direction of the tide.
Point of view / Liu Run Chief writer / Er Man Editor / Ge Ping Layout / Huang Jing