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Click blue word, follow us Is Bitcoin’s $200,000 a year-end carnival, or is it a 4-year wait? Senior trader Peter Brandt poured cold water on the market: Stop fantasizing, it will only be possible in the third quarter of 2029! However, BitMEX co-founder, Coinbase CEO and other big names are collectively bullish. Some people say that it will reach 200,000 by the end of the year, and some even predict that it will soar to 1 million in 2030! On the one hand, there is a conservative prediction of "four years to sharpen a sword", and on the other hand, there is a radical carnival of "a tenfold increase in three years". At a time when Bitcoin has plummeted by 20%+ and institutions are selling off records, who is the real prophet? Is it a year-end carnival or do we have to wait 4 years? The crypto community is completely in turmoil! On one side, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, and other big names assured that Bitcoin will reach US$200,000 before the end of the year. ； On the other side, senior trader Peter Brandt poured cold water on it: Stop dreaming, you have to wait until the third quarter of 2029 to reach this target! This is no small difference - from the end of 2025 to the third quarter of 2029, there is a gap of nearly 4 years! You know, Brandt is no unknown person. As a recognized senior trader in the circle, his predictions have always been known for being accurate and stable, and he has clearly stated that he is a "long-term bullish on Bitcoin." As soon as these remarks came out, they immediately caused an uproar in the encryption market. Investors who were originally full of expectations were instantly confused about "who should they believe?" What’s even more exciting is that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest’s “Female Stock God” Cathie Wood even gave crazy predictions: Bitcoin will soar to $1 million by 2030! It is only one quarter later than Brandt, but the price is five times that of Brandt. On the one hand, there is a conservative prediction of "four years to sharpen a sword", and on the other hand, there is a radical carnival of "a tenfold increase in three years." What secrets are hidden in the future of Bitcoin? institutional selling This is no small difference - from the end of 2025 to the third quarter of 2029, there is a gap of nearly 4 years! You know, Brandt is no unknown person. As a recognized senior trader in the circle, his predictions have always been known for being accurate and stable, and he has clearly stated that he is a "long-term bullish on Bitcoin." As soon as these remarks came out, they immediately caused an uproar in the encryption market. Investors who were originally full of expectations were instantly confused about "who should they believe?" What’s even more exciting is that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest’s “Female Stock God” Cathie Wood even gave crazy predictions: Bitcoin will soar to $1 million by 2030! It is only one quarter later than Brandt, but the price is five times that of Brandt. On the one hand, there is a conservative prediction of "four years to sharpen a sword", and on the other hand, there is a radical carnival of "a tenfold increase in three years." What secrets are hidden in the future of Bitcoin? The big guys were arguing fiercely, but the market responded with cold trends. Since hitting a record high of US$125,100 on October 5, Bitcoin has started a "free fall" mode, with a cumulative decline of 20.23% in the past 30 days. It plummeted to a low of US$88,000 on Wednesday, and as of press time, it has further dropped to US$86,870, almost erasing part of the gains this year. What is alarming is that Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards bluntly stated that Bitcoin is experiencing a rare wave of institutional selling in history, and "the percentage of Coinbase trading volume has reached a record high." Is this sell-off a short-term panic, or a turning point in a long-term trend? Just as the market was wailing, Brandt gave a subversive view: “This sell-off is the best thing that can happen to Bitcoin! ” In his view, the current market correction is not a crisis, but a healthy "self-reset." Other cryptocurrency analysts have also taken sides, believing that from a historical perspective, such periods of deep adjustment are often the “calm before the storm.” Each significant retracement paves the way for subsequent larger-scale increases. But the question is, can this "reset" really bring surprises like history? Is Bitcoin a replica of the soybean crash of the 1970s? Brandt’s confidence is not groundless. He made a surprising point in October: Bitcoin’s current price chart is strikingly similar to the soybean market 50 years ago! Going back to the 1970s, after hitting a historical high, soybean prices plummeted by 50% because global supply far exceeded demand, staged a tragic "high dive". Today's Bitcoin seems to be following a similar trajectory - falling rapidly after reaching a new all-time high, institutions selling wildly, and market sentiment turning from fanaticism to panic. Does this mean that Bitcoin will follow the same path as soybeans and experience a long downturn? Brandt's comparison instantly made the market take a breath of cold air. You know, the soybean market in the 1970s experienced several years of shock and consolidation after the crash before gradually recovering. If Bitcoin really replicates this trend, the prediction that it will hit $200,000 in 2029 does not seem to be alarmist. However, as a digital asset, the technical logic and market ecology behind Bitcoin are completely different from those of commodity soybeans. Can a simple historical analogy really be used as a basis for predicting the future? Who is the “true prophet” of Bitcoin? On one side is Brandt’s “rational prediction” based on historical laws, and on the other side is the “emotional carnival” of many crypto executives based on industry prospects. Who is the “true prophet” of Bitcoin? Investors who support Brandt believe that there are obvious signs of bubbles in the current crypto market. Factors such as institutional selling and tightening supervision indicate that the market will need time to digest risks, and it will be difficult to reproduce the previous surge in the short term. Although the forecast for 2029 is long, it is more in line with the objective laws of market development and gives investors enough time to adjust their expectations. Those who are optimistic about reaching $200,000 by the end of the year say that Bitcoin’s underlying technology is continuing to mature, and positive factors such as institutional layout and ETF approval are still fermenting. The current decline is just a short-term correction. As the fundamentals of the industry continue to improve, Bitcoin is expected to rebound quickly and even break through the previous high. As for the goal of US$1 million, it is based on the long-term judgment of the blockchain technology revolution and is not out of reach. It is worth noting that despite the huge differences in opinions, all the big guys agree on one thing: Bitcoin is bullish in the long term. The only difference is that the pace and timing of the rise are controversial. This also means that no matter what the short-term trend is, the long-term development of the crypto market is still generally optimistic, and this wave of correction may be an excellent time for long-term investors to make arrangements. Don't be led astray by your emotions Faced with the fierce competition between the big guys and the violent market fluctuations, how should ordinary investors deal with themselves? It is obviously not advisable to blindly follow the trend of being bullish or bearish. Only by doing the following three things can you stand firm in the chaos: 1. Reduce short-term expectations and focus on long-term value. Whether it's $200,000 at the end of the year or $200,000 in 2029, short-term forecasts are full of uncertainty. Rather than getting hung up on specific time points and prices, it is better to focus on the long-term value of Bitcoin - the application prospects of blockchain technology, the continued inflow of institutional funds, changes in the global financial landscape, etc. These are the core factors that determine the future direction of Bitcoin. 2. Control positions and be alert to leverage risks. The current market is highly volatile, and leveraged trading can easily lead to liquidation risks. Investors should reasonably control their positions based on their own risk tolerance and avoid blindly adding leverage to chase the rise or fall. For ordinary investors, planning in batches and holding for the long term may be a safer strategy. 3. Treat callbacks rationally and refuse panic selling. Historical experience shows that every time Bitcoin makes a sharp correction, it can usher in a new upward cycle. The current institutional selling may be just a short-term capital adjustment rather than a long-term bearish move. Investors should view market fluctuations rationally and avoid being swayed by panic and blindly selling their chips, thereby missing out on subsequent rebound opportunities. The future of Bitcoin is never in the forecast From US$10,000 to US$120,000, Bitcoin has created countless miracles in ten years； From US$120,000 to US$80,000, it took another month to teach investors to fear the market. The battle over predictions between veteran traders and crypto executives is essentially about different understandings of market rhythms, rather than denial of long-term trends. The future of Bitcoin has never been determined by one person’s predictions, but by the iteration of technology, the choices of the market, and the rational judgment of every investor. Whether you wait 4 years or 4 months, those who can really make money in the crypto market will always be those who see through the essence, respect the market, and adhere to long-termism.   Hualiantong Web3 Encrypted World Focus on information sharing in the investment field For more exciting content, please follow us Looking forward to your Share Like Watching |
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