In-depth analysis of the trend of BTC in 2025: Direction decision under the historical mirror

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 15:49 67291人围观 BTC

When BTC fell by 20% in November, the market once again fell into a deep game of "whether history is repeating itself." Looking back at the two iconic rounds of major adjustments in 2021, we find that the rhythm, emotions and even technical characteristics of this round of decline are highly similar to them - is this a prelude to a rebound or a continuation of a deep downward trend? Today we will dismantle BTC’s current direction decision from the perspective of historical mirroring.

1. Mirror comparison of the decline in November 2025 and the key adjustments in 2021

(1) Adjustment in April 2021 (first round of major correction)

Time period: Starting from the historical high of 64800, the callback period is 3 months；

Decline: Cumulative decline of 55%, accompanied by multiple rounds of pin-like fluctuations during the period；

Follow-up trend: After hitting the bottom in July, it started to rebound and reached a record high of 69,000 in November.

(2) Adjustment in December 2021 (second round of major correction)

Time period: Starting from the high point of 69000, the callback period is 3 months；

Decline: A cumulative drop of 51%, and trading volume continued to shrink during the decline.；

Subsequent trend: The rebound only lasted for 2 months (an increase of about 40%), and then entered an 8-month decline until it fell to the bear market bottom of 15476 in November 2022.

BTC-21 years historical trend

(3) Adjustments from November 2025 to present

Time period: Starting from the annual high of 126199, it has lasted for about 45 days；

Decline: cumulative decline of 22.62%, with a decline rate of 1.13%/day (significantly faster than 0.5%/day in April 2021)；

Current characteristics: Fund acceptance is weak (there was no significant increase in transaction volume during the decline), the market panic index is in the "extreme panic" range, and the consistency of bearish sentiment is relatively high.

BTC November trend

2. Key signals and potential paths of the current market

(1) Technical aspect: life and death game at key support levels

Short-term bull defense line: 93000 (opening price in 2025) - if it can stand firm, it may trigger a technical rebound, but judging from the current volume, energy and sentiment, the probability of standing firm is low；

Short-term short target: 86000 - if it falls below, the next strong support range will drop to 81700-79000 (close to the strong psychological support band of 74508, the low before 2025).

(2) Financial and emotional aspects: The probability of further decline dominates

Capital side: During the decline, there was no large-scale bottom-buying action by main funds, and selling pressure from retail investors was still being released.；

Emotional side: The panic index continues to be at a low level, and the market's "stop-loss orders" and "panic orders" have not yet been completely cleared.；

Conclusion: Combining the historical mirroring of the two scripts of "rebound after a deep decline/negative decline after a deep decline", the current environment is more biased towards **the probability of "continuation of the deep decline" is higher** (refer to the negative decline path after December 2021).

BTC-25-year trend

3. Operation Strategy: Ultimate Management of Positions and Risks

Big funds: Mainly wait and see, patiently waiting for clear stabilization signals in the 81700-79000 range (such as the daily level with a long lower shadow, heavy volume, positive and negative, etc.)；

Small funds: You can participate in "altcoins with funds to enter the market independently" with light positions (limited to fast in and fast out, strictly set a stop loss within 10-15%)；

Contract trading: Leverage risk is extremely high. If you participate, you need to control your position within 5% of the total funds, and set up a liquidation mechanism for extreme market conditions.；

General iron rule: Do not "ALL IN" at any time. "The thickness of your pocket determines the scale of the operation, and the management of the position determines the survival of the account."

(Note: The above analysis is a deduction of technical and historical laws and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR)

#BTC trend analysis #crypto market correction