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For six weeks, the crypto market was hit with a “reset button””You may have seen a series of dazzling data in the past two days: BTC drops below $90,000 The market value of the entire market has evaporated by more than $1 trillion in 6 weeks Capital risk aversion in many countries is rising rapidly DeFi and copycat sectors collectively retreated sharply AI, technology stocks weaken simultaneously This round of decline is no longer a "minor shock". It is a complete emotional revaluation phase (Repricing Phase). The market is shouting something very obvious: “Stop giving me illusions, I want to reprice risk. ” 1. The essence of this round of slump: It is not negative, but "the withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets"”Many people ask: “Is there bad news? ” There is no particularly bad news. The real core is—— Global funds are actively withdrawing from high-risk assets.Common characteristics include: Fed rate cut expectations drop sharplyThe market probability of an interest rate cut within the year has dropped from 90% to about 50% → Risk assets are under pressure. Global risk aversion risesFunds returned to bonds, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. stock defensive sectors. Crypto market remains in “high valuation range””It has risen for too long and requires a "structural clearing." Long-term holders begin to transfer chipsIt's not a sell-off, but a reduction in positions to hedge risks. This means: It’s not that something is wrong, but that “the entire risk market is cooling down.” Encryption is just the most sensitive of them all. 2. What does it mean if BTC falls below $90,000?Many people mistakenly think that: “Falling below 90,000, is this a major reversal in trend? ” But it's not. The trend of BTC belongs to: The "energy release" stage after high acceleration. The specific performance is: Upward momentum exhausted Trading volume declines Funds no longer chase higher prices Small-level leveraged orders were continuously liquidated Sentiment shifts from greed to caution This is a typical "overheating out". Prices fell, but the underlying structure remained intact. 3. Why did the market evaporate so quickly this time?Because there are three "accelerators": Accelerator 1: Derivatives have too much leverageA large number of overlapping leveraged long positions during the rising stage, During the correction, they will be liquidated continuously, causing the decline to rapidly amplify. Accelerator 2: AI + technology stocks pull back simultaneouslyThe risk asset chain broke at the same time: Technology → AI → Encryption Get off together. Accelerator 3: Emotions collapse faster than dataThe market has gone from "optimistic" to "cautious": All it takes is one trigger point to push the entire market down. 4. How should ordinary investors view it?Here are three real pieces of advice for you: ① The decline is not a bear market signal, it is a liquidation of high risks.The trend has not reversed; Just enter the "restoration stage". ② The further it falls, the less likely it is to bet on a rebound.During the price stall phase, Short-term is the most difficult thing to do. ③ Observation is more important than judgmentWhat really determines the future trend is what happens next: Has the mood bottomed out? Will the funds flow back? Is derivatives leverage clean? Are big assets starting to stabilize? These signals are more important than "predicting the bottom." 5. Bishuo’s judgment for you (mild but true)This is not the "end" of encryption, Just an in-depth physical examination in the middle of the bull market. The market has risen too fast and needs a "detox". This decline is a "recalibration" of the system. The real big structure is not broken yet; Just telling everyone: Don't rush too fast, let's take a break. Follow the public account CoinsTalk Compliance StatementThis article is an interpretation and structural analysis of industry news and does not constitute investment advice. |