BTC WEEKLY 25.11.24——The pie breaks 8w, is it time to buy the dip?

Nakamoto 2025-11-25 18:19 55511人围观 BTC

Hey everyone! Last week, the "BTC Escape Plan for 2025" and its results were listed on the weekly report. Friends who haven't seen it yet can click on the link to view it. I originally planned to talk about the next bargain-hunting plan in this week's wee

Hey everyone!

Last week, the weekly report released the "2025 BTC Escape Plan" and its results. Friends who haven't seen it yet can click on the link to view it.

I originally planned to talk about the next bargain hunting plan in this week's weekly report, but I didn't expect that the plot developed too fast. Last Friday, I stepped in. $around 80k, the mood of the entire network was extremely cold in an instant, setting the largest single-day loss since the birth of BTC, a total of 2.8 billion US dollars!

As U.S. macro data and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December increase, market panic has eased, and the current BTC price is at$85k Fluctuate nearby.

The plot is so intense that it catches people off guard. Just last week, I had closed my long-term short position, returned to the long position, and started a plan to gradually build a position.

So is it a correction in place, or is it going to continue to be a bear? How should we “buy the dip”?

In this weekly post today, I will share my recent thoughts.

1. Judgment of the big cycle, will it be a deep bear or stabilization next?

To analyze "buying the bottom", we first need to know where the "bottom" is. That is, from a cycle perspective:

A: The big bear market is coming (the one that dropped directly from 70,000 to 1.50,000 4 years ago)

B: Just a "shallow bear" pullback (similar to August 2024 and March-April 2025)

If you still believe in the so-called "four-year cycle", you may replicate the "deep bear" that went down 4 years ago.

If you believe that the big guys on Wall Street are now at the helm and are driving but stable, then the cycle will be broken and the trend will be more similar to other commodities and assets, then a "shallow bear" is more likely.

My current personal judgment is more inclined to the latter, which is "Shallow Bear". As BTC continues to be halved, changes in production every four years actually have less and less impact on supply. Moreover, Wall Street bosses do not have the patience to wait for everyone for four years.

2. Key positions in the script of "Shallow Bear"

Since it is judged to be a bear, where does the "bear" stand? “"Shallow" and how shallow? We can make a prediction from the key positions of the data on the chain.

As shown in the picture above, the black line is the BTC price

🔴 Red line: STH (Short Term Holder) Cost：$105.5k —— The divide between long and short； Stand back = return to the bull market.
🟡 Active Investors Mean (active investor cost)：$87.1k —— Prices are now pulling around it.
🟢 True Market Mean (true market cost)：$81.3k —— An ideal foothold for shallow bear pullbacks；
🔵 Realized Price (market average cost)：$56k —— The ultimate defense line of real bears is still far away from now.

As mentioned earlier, the "Shallow Bear" script is similar to August 2024 and March-April 2025.

As shown in the picture above, the black line is the BTC price

🔵 blue line STH (Short Term Holder) Cost: $105K
🔴 Red line: STH (short-term holder) cost + 1σ offset position
🟡 yellow Line: STH (Short Term Holder) Cost - 1σ Offset: $81.6k

Moreover, it can be seen from the chart that when the BTC price reached the yellow line in August 2024 and March-April 2025, there was a rebound and subsequent trend reversal.

Therefore, it can be seen from the True Market Mean (real market cost) and STH (short-term holder) cost - 1σ deviation position that the "Shallow Bear Script" is a relatively suitable callback position at around 81k.

3. When to “buy the dip”?

If you couldn't hold it back last Friday, "copy" into the market. Congratulations, this is a good entry point on the left. If you haven’t done it yet, there’s no need to regret it. Like "top", "bottom" is always a process, not a point.

Moreover, there are currently some signs that the correction may not end so soon. When the market falls so rapidly, it often takes a long time to recover. According to the "Shallow Bear" 2024.8 and 2025.4, this process may last 1-2 months. Moreover, the bottom usually does not have just one low point (as shown below in July-August 2024 and March-April 2025).

Some "dark clouds" overhead”

Futures open interest and funding rates

As shown in the figure above, the black line is the BTC price, the yellow line is the number of BTC futures open contracts, and the red line is the contract funding rate. In the bottom area, as shown in the red circle in the picture above, it is often accompanied by the liquidation of leverage + the funding rate turning negative (mainly short leverage). Although a lot of leverage has been cleared at present, the funding rate is still positive, indicating that there are still relatively many funds for bargain hunting, which increases short-term instability.

When will there be another opportunity to “buy the dip”?

The extent of short-term investor cutting

As shown in the figure above, the black line is the BTC price, and the purple column is the realized loss (cutting) intensity of short-term investment. It can be seen that the two stage bottoms in July-August 2024 and March-April 2025 were accompanied by a process of decreasing meat-cutting intensity each time (red arrow in the picture above). The logic is also easy to understand. All that should be cut has been cut, and the resistance to subsequent rises has been cleared. Currently, it is just the first wave of flesh-cutting. If it reaches a low of around 81k in the future, but the flesh-cutting decreases significantly, it means that it is another good time to enter the market.

4. Potential risks

$80k fell and fell on heavy volume : below $71–81k chips sparse , may break the "shallow bear hypothesis".
Macro events:

Month-end 2/5/7-year U.S. Treasury bond auction (If it "cannot be sold", interest rates will rise → risky assets will be under pressure).

in conclusion

According to the current trend and on-chain data, this time is more like a "shallow bear's big retracement" and not a four-year deep bear restart.

The key support for "shallow bears" is around $81k, giving us a price-based "buffer zone" to follow.

Finally, the above is just a summary of personal learning analysis and does not constitute investment advice.

Thanks for your attention! Welcome to like, forward, recommend, and leave messages to communicate with me