Bitcoin’s in-depth market review on December 2nd, the market game entered a critical period

Nakamoto 2025-12-3 02:23 53114人围观 BTC

On December 2nd, the Bitcoin market staged a "roller coaster" market. After plunging more than 8% the night before and hitting a low of $83,788, it started a V-shaped reversal early this morning and rebounded over $2,500. As of 14:00, it was weakly consol

On December 2, the Bitcoin market staged a "roller coaster" market. After plunging more than 8% the night before and hitting a low of $83,788, it started a V-shaped reversal early this morning and rebounded over $2,500. As of 14:00, it was weakly consolidating around $86,000, still down 5% from the previous trading day. Extreme volatility has triggered large-scale liquidations in the derivatives market, and the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, institutional capital flows, and liquidity issues are intertwined, leaving Bitcoin in a complex pattern of coexisting short-term shocks and mid-term declines.

(1) Short-term extreme fluctuation trajectory

Panic plunge stage (evening on December 1): After a flash crash in early trading below $87,000, the decline expanded to 8%, hitting a new low of $83,788 since April 2025. “Fall - liquidation - fall again." A negative cycle was formed. Ethereum simultaneously fell by more than 10% to $2,718, and the panic atmosphere intensified.

V-shaped reversal stage (from the early morning of December 2 to present): After hitting a low, it quickly rebounded, breaking through 85,000 US dollars in the early morning, rising above 86,000 US dollars in early trading, and is now at 86,378 US dollars. Ethereum's rebound was weak, struggling near $2,850, and its trend was significantly weaker than that of Bitcoin.

(2) Recent market trend convergence

This fluctuation is a continuation of the adjustment in early October. After Bitcoin hit a new high of $126,250 on October 6, it retraced more than 30% within two months, erasing all gains in 2025. It rebounded to above $90,000 in November, but fell back after encountering resistance at $92,000. Data last weekend showed that the total market value of the crypto market was US$3.1 trillion, and Bitcoin's weekly turnover was US$59.9 billion, 31% lower than the average. Low liquidity has exacerbated price vulnerability.

Interpretation of core market data

(1) Core data of price and market capitalization

CoinMarketCap data shows that the current price of Bitcoin is $86,624.54, down 5.38% in 24 hours； With a market capitalization of US$1.72 trillion, accounting for over 55% of the total market share, its dominant position remains unchanged. The 24-hour trading volume was US$62.46 billion, an increase of 69.08%, reflecting panic selling and bargain hunting. ； The price fluctuates within the range of 6311.93 US dollars (85653.11-91965.04 US dollars), and the volatility is at a high level.

(2) The liquidation data is shocking

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, 270,000 people have liquidated positions in the crypto market, totaling US$985 million, of which long orders liquidated US$870 million, accounting for 88%, confirming that long positions have been liquidated and dominated the fluctuations. The liquidation amount was approximately US$537 million on December 1, and reached US$821 million on November 21. Short-term continuous liquidations accelerated market deleveraging.

(3) Capital flows are differentiated

Contradictory signals from institutional funds: Bitcoin ETF inflows are scarce, FalconX points out this as a key risk； However, in the last week of November, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of US$312.6 million, with BlackRock as the main driver. CoinShares data shows that whales have sold more than $20 billion in crypto assets since September, and Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeded $3.5 billion in November, which together triggered a "deleveraging spiral."

Analysis of the core causes of market fluctuations

(1) Sudden changes in macroeconomic policy expectations are the main reason

Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy has become a trigger: the expected probability of an interest rate cut in December was 87.4%. As three senior officials warned of inflation, the probability fell below 50%, and funds were withdrawn from high-risk assets. Morgan Stanley pointed out that if the Fed remains unchanged, tighter liquidity will suppress non-interest-bearing assets. The Bank of Japan's hawks turned to simultaneous pressure, with the two-year government bond yield rising to 1%, and the probability of raising interest rates in December was 76%. Trump did not reveal the candidate for the new Federal Reserve chairman, further exacerbating market caution.

(2) Market structural fragility increases volatility

Depleted liquidity and high leverage highlighted flaws: Asian trading volume plummeted in early trading, a small amount of selling triggered a flash crash, Bitcoin’s weekly trading volume was 31% lower than the average, and its ability to withstand volatility declined. High leverage has formed a vicious cycle. Since the beginning of October, 19 billion US dollars of leveraged positions have been liquidated. This plunge has triggered large-scale liquidation. After the proportion of institutional funds increased, panic withdrawals only amplified the fluctuations.

(3) Safety incidents and regulatory pressures have worsened

Yearn Finance was hacked in early December and 1,000 Ethereum was transferred； Previously, the Upbit exchange in South Korea was attacked, causing concerns about asset security. At the regulatory level, the People’s Bank of China clarified on November 28 that stablecoins are virtual currencies and reiterated that related businesses are illegal. ； After the U.S. GENIUS bill was implemented, institutions retreated from the sidelines, and the inflow of Ethereum ETFs slowed down.

In-depth technical analysis

(1) Interpretation of Bitcoin’s core technical positions and indicators

Key support and resistance: The upper resistance is 88,000-89,000 US dollars (early support turns to resistance), 90,000 US dollars and 93,000 US dollars (downward trend line). A breakthrough of 93,000 US dollars will confirm the mid-term strength.； The lower support is US$85,000 (has been briefly broken down), US$80,000 (psychological mark) and US$77,000 (annual line area). The loss of US$80,000 may trigger a new round of selling.

Trend and indicator signals: The 4-hour and daily levels are in a downward channel, and the price is below the short- and medium-term moving average, forming a short position. Daily MACD opens below the zero axis and expands, with strong downward momentum ； The RSI has entered oversold territory, but the bearish trend may continue to oversold. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of US$80,000-92,500.

(2) Comparison with the trend of Ethereum reflects market sentiment

Ethereum suffered a larger decline and a weaker rebound. The 1-hour chart showed a downward channel and a TD sequence sell signal. Relative strength shows that funds are withdrawing from high-risk assets and risk aversion is strong. The volume can be amplified when falling, but the volume can be insufficient when rebounding, confirming that buying confidence is weak, and Bitcoin is more favored by funds, highlighting the cautious attitude of the market.

(3) Mid- to long-term technical outlook

The weekly level rebound was completely swallowed up, showing a "one-day trip" weakness； The daily MACD has been below the zero axis for a long time, and the medium-term downward trend has not changed. However, the V-shaped rebound shows that it is not extremely short, or it is in the stage of range-bound decline. We need to pay attention to whether the key support level can form a double bottom. If the support is confirmed, it may trigger a rebound.

Research and judgment on institutional views and market sentiment

(1) Differences in views among mainstream institutions

Pessimist: FalconX emphasizes the key support of $80,000, structural resistance continues； Damian Chmiel warns that a drop below $100,000 could trigger a sell-off to $74,000 (potential drop of 30%) ； CoinShares points to whale selling and the “four-year cycle theory” suppressing the market.

Optimists: BTC Markets predicts that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin may rise by 10%-15% to US$95,000-100,000, and dovish signals may boost it to US$110,000-120,000.； BTSE believes that the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman will reignite expectations of interest rate cuts and drive a rebound.

Neutral faction: Hotcoin Research pointed out that the increase in the proportion of institutional funds has made the market pay more attention to fundamentals. It will be more mature and rational in 2026, and the impact of short-term sentiment will weaken.

(2) Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The fear and greed index is still at a low level. Although there is a slight rebound from extreme fear, panic has not completely dissipated. The confidence of retail investors and some institutions has been frustrated. Short-term funds are selling high and buying low, while medium- and long-term funds are waiting to wait and see. The market is extremely sensitive to news and may still fluctuate significantly in the short term.

Market outlook and operational suggestions

(1) Short-term key signals of concern

Core observation points for the coming week: the breakthrough of the $93,000 trend line (a strong signal in the medium term), the support status of $80,000, the impact of U.S. economic data on the Federal Reserve’s expectations, the flow of Bitcoin ETF funds, and the linkage effect of risk assets such as U.S. stocks.

(2) Suggestions on operation strategies for different cycles

Short-term operation: Sell high and buy low between the support of $85,400 and the resistance of $86,800. Long orders wait for opportunities at $81,000-82,000. Short orders capture signals in the middle area and strictly stop losses to avoid holding positions overnight. Medium and long-term operations: Build positions in batches in the US$77,000-80,000 area, close to the annual line support with high safety margin ； When it exceeds $93,000 to confirm that the trend has reversed, add positions and simultaneously track changes in policy and funding.

(3) Risk warning

Be wary of four major risks: policy risk (Federal Reserve resolution, regulatory tightening), liquidity risk (flash crash and difficulty in liquidating positions), leverage risk (leverage should not be increased during the deleveraging period), and black swan risk (hacker attacks, industry scandals). It is recommended to control positions, refuse to chase ups and downs, and make decisions based on risk tolerance.

Summarize

The market situation on December 2 was the epitome of the violent market fluctuations. 270,000 people liquidated their positions and US$1 billion evaporated, highlighting the high-risk nature. Currently, Bitcoin is under the triple pressure of macro uncertainty, technical short positions, and capital differentiation. It is difficult for a short-term rebound to change the medium-term downward trend.

In the future, the support of US$80,000 and the resistance of US$93,000 will become the core of the game, and the Fed's December meeting will serve as a direction catalyst. Led by institutional funds, the market is gradually maturing, but there are still trading opportunities. Investors need to adhere to discipline, protect principal, and closely track the three core variables of liquidity, supervision, and ecology in order to seize opportunities and avoid risks.

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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents personal opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. Please invest with caution and make decisions based on your own judgment.