There are only 2.76 million Bitcoins left for sale. The biggest enemy of Bitcoin in the past has completely surrendered. Bitcoin circulation is urgent: the rising signal behind 2.76 million

Bitcoin circulation is in a hurry: the rising signal behind 2.76 million coins

Risk of liquidity depletion. Although the rising signal is strong, we need to be wary of "volatility amplification under extreme deflation": if the exchange balance further drops below 2.5 million coins, it may trigger a "short squeeze", with a single-day increase of more than 10%.； If retail investors focus on chasing the rise at the $100,000 mark, the liquidation of leveraged funds may lead to a short-term correction (refer to the historical selling pressure in November 2021).

1. 
   Exchange balance fell below the "life and death line"”
   Historical data shows that when the exchange’s Bitcoin reserves fall below 3 million, the market often enters a “chip deflation cycle”:
   
2. 
   The proportion of long-term holders’ positions reaches a new high
   According to Glassnode data, the holdings of LTH groups who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days have reached 13.75 million, accounting for 70.4% of the total circulation, an increase of 635,000 from 2024. These "diamond hands" lock positions in cold wallets to completely remove short-term selling pressure and form a "protection cushion" for price declines.
   
3. 
   Institutional rush to raise funds exacerbates supply shortage
   The entry of U.S. state governments, listed companies and ETF funds further squeezed the circulation:
   

Institutional “national team” enters the scene: The Trump family and state governments set off a storm of Bitcoin fundraising

U.S. state governments: From "onlookers" to "heavy positions", budget funds are rushing into the market. "Fiscal currency purchases" by state-level governments have become a new trend, marking the qualitative change of Bitcoin from "speculative assets" to "reserve assets":

The former short sellers surrendered collectively: Wall Street’s attitude turned 180 degrees

In November 2024, on the debate stage of the Dubai World Crypto Summit, die-hard gold fan Peter Schiff and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) staged a head-to-head confrontation between "traditional value anchors" and "digital native assets"**. This debate became a classic scene in the history of encryption due to a dramatic "physical verification challenge." Peter Schiff, a die-hard gold fan: The contradictory transformation from "Bitcoin black fan" to "gold token salesman". As the chief economist of a well-known European fund, Peter Schiff was once the "ultimate evangelist" of gold: he has always belittled Bitcoin: at public events such as the London Financial Summit, he repeatedly ridiculed Bitcoin as having "no intrinsic value" and even asserted that it was "more ridiculous than the tulip bubble."

Reject on-chain verification. When debating with Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao in 2024, faced with the question of "on-chain verification of gold authenticity," he was unable to use technical means to prove the purity of the gold on the table on the spot, while Bitcoin's on-chain traceability can be completed in just 30 seconds.

Now, Schiff has launched a gold tokenization product in an attempt to anchor physical gold into a crypto asset. However, this attempt exposed a fatal contradiction: gold tokens rely on the endorsement of centralized institutions and cannot achieve decentralized confirmation of rights through the blockchain like Bitcoin, and its "authenticity verification problem" remains unresolved. Some netizens ridiculed: “This is equivalent to marrying the ‘daughter’ of blockchain (tokenization technology) but still refusing to recognize the ‘grandfather’ of Bitcoin. ”

Christmas market historical seasonal patterns

Seasonal rules analyze the annual effect of the halving. In the first year after the halving, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise significantly in December. Affected by market sentiment, market sentiment before Christmas is usually relatively optimistic, and investors tend to lock in gains at the end of the year, which may also push Bitcoin prices upward.

Comparing the current market environment, the current Bitcoin balance on exchanges has fallen below 3 million. Historically, this data point usually indicates a rise in prices.

Conclusion and recommendations: The short-term outlook is bullish. Based on historical data and the current market environment, there is a high probability that the price of Bitcoin will rise before Christmas. With long-term caution, investors should pay attention to possible market adjustments after the holidays and make investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance.

Bitcoin Christmas market seasonal pattern comparison table (2017-2025)

Summary of rules

1. The increase in the first year after the halving was significantly higher in 2020 (after the halving) and 2024 (after the halving) than in the non-halving years (2017, 2021).
2. There is a positive correlation between the exchange balance and the increase. When the balance falls below 3 million coins (2020, 2024-2025), the increase in December exceeds 30%.
3. Institutional dominance replaces retail investors. After 2021, institutional behavior (such as ETFs, government reserves) has become the core driver, and the influence of retail investor speculation has weakened.