btc is stronger again in the new week

Nakamoto 2025-12-24 19:20 9337人围观 BTC

As of late December 2025, multiple chain and technical indicators show that Bitcoin (BTC) is indeed experiencing the typical bottom conversion stage of "stabilizing → trying to strengthen", but the reversal has not yet been fully confirmed. The core evide

As of late December 2025, multiple chain and technical indicators show that Bitcoin (BTC) is indeed going through the typical bottom conversion stage of "stabilizing → trying to strengthen", but the reversal has not yet been fully confirmed. The core evidence and risk points are as follows:

1. Bottom signal: multiple indicators enter the "buy zone"”

1. The Puell Multiple and MVRV ratios both fell to the historical bottom range. Similar readings in the past were often followed by strong rebounds of several months.

2. A combination of "miner surrender + whale accumulation" appears on the chain: miners' income is compressed, addresses have a net transfer of approximately 270,000 BTC to large accounts, and exchange balances have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating that selling pressure is being absorbed by long-term holders.

3. Significant de-leverage: The US$1 billion liquidation in early December brought the open interest of the perpetual contract back to lows, but the price subsequently held the support of US$87,000–88,000, indicating that “clean” spot buying began to take over.

2. Price Trend: Key Resistance Area 93,000–94,000 USD

1. It has rebounded more than 17% from the low in late November, and the daily line is currently consolidating within a narrow range of 92,000-94,000 US dollars.； If the daily entity stands firmly above $94,200, it will be confirmed to be out of the October downward channel, and the next resistance will be $98,000 and $102,000.

2. If it falls back to 85 900-86 300 US dollars and does not break, it is a healthy "flag-shaped consolidation" and can be regarded as a window for low prices.； Once the price closes below $83,700, the $78,000–80,000 area will be retested.

3. Macroeconomics and capital flow: long and short interweaving

1. Favorable factors: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 bp in December, and the US dollar has weakened marginally； Spot ETFs still saw small net inflows from institutions amid "extreme panic", showing a differentiation between "retail investors cutting off and institutions taking over".

2. Risk factors: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates on December 18-19. If it triggers yen arbitrage, global risk assets may correct again.； In addition, U.S. stocks fluctuated at high levels, which also limited the unilateral upside space of BTC.

4. Conclusion and strategy

- Short-term: "Bottom pattern + moderate heavy volume" has appeared. As long as US$88,000 does not fall, we tend to try to buy more on dips.； If it breaks through 94,200 US dollars, you can increase your position towards 98,000 US dollars.

- Center line: We still need to wait for the "bottom rise" at the daily level and the continued increase in trading volume to confirm the reversal.； Place a stop loss below $83,000 to prevent a macro black swan.

- Long-term: Cyclical indicators such as Puell and MVRV support a new round of main rise in the first half of 2026, but only if macro liquidity does not tighten further.

To sum up, BTC is likely to be in the "early stage of stabilization". In the short term, it can be lightly positioned to follow the rebound, but it has not yet reached the stage of comprehensive pursuit of higher prices.； Keep an eye on the two prices of 88,000 and 94,000. If either of them is effectively breached/below, it will determine the direction of the last week of the year. I wish you smooth trading and pay attention to risk control.