Does BTC still have a chance to get rich?

Nakamoto 2026-1-11 02:25 7486人围观 BTC

On May 18, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz, a programmer from Florida, USA, posted on the BitcoinTalk forum that he was willing to pay 10,000 BTC to "buy" two large pizzas.； Four days later, a 19-year-old Californian boy ordered takeout from Papa John's for him, and

On May 18, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz, a programmer from Florida, USA, posted on the BitcoinTalk forum, willing to pay 10,000 BTC to "buy" two large pizzas ； Four days later, a 19-year-old Californian boy ordered takeout from Papa John's for him, and the transaction was completed. This order is recognized as the first physical commodity transaction in the history of Bitcoin, and May 22 has therefore been designated as "Bitcoin Pizza Day".

Li Xiaolai, a former New Oriental English teacher, bought about 100,000 Bitcoins at an average price of about US$1 in 2011. In just a few years, the currency price rose to a maximum of US$20,000 per coin, and his book wealth once exceeded US$2 billion. This is equivalent to leveraging tens of billions of yuan in returns with an investment of less than 1 million yuan, and the overall income is about 1,000 to 2,700 times. This myth is used by the currency circle to generally refer to the get-rich-quick template of "extremely early low-price heavy positions → long-term capital gains → cash out at high points", that is, "Li Xiaolai-style thousand-fold returns."

For these two most classic cases, I probably came into contact with BTC relatively early, that is, I paid attention to BTC in 2018. At that time, BTC fell from the highest point of 8,000 knives to more than 3,000 knives, and I saw news about someone standing on the flyover on the Internet. Later, I bought it at NT$5,000 and sold it for NT$10,000 in 2019. I took the profit and returned the large funds to A shares, leaving part of the funds to play on the exchange. Later, I opened short orders many times and then shut down.

Then, there is the bull market in 2023, which is a halving event every four years. In addition, ETFs can hold BTC positions, which has brought a lot of funds to BTC. This is what I also saw at the time, so I split half of my position from A shares and entered the currency circle.

At this time, the BTC price has reached around 35,000, and I think the price is a bit high.

I felt that there was more room for ETFs to rise, so I bought all of the ETFs. As a result, BTC rose far more than the ETFs, and I only made 50%. In March 2025, I took back the principal I invested in A shares and kept the profits. I was angry and felt that the virtual currency could not go up, so I opened short positions many times and entered BTC and ETF.

At this time, everyone who reads my official account knows that BTC has risen from 80,000 knives to almost 130,000 knives, and the profits are almost gone again.

I have been transferred into the pit of emptying twice. After this bloody lesson, I will never open emptying again in the future.

After all, BTC is a virtual asset, which is very convenient to buy and sell. To put it bluntly, it is speculation, so it has always skyrocketed and plummeted in the past.

I remember that on March 12, 2020, Bitcoin dropped from a low of about US$7,900 to a low of US$3,600-3,800 in 24 hours, with a maximum drop of more than 50%. It was called the "312 Incident" or "Black Thursday" in the currency circle.

At that time, fortunately, I didn't use leverage to open a long order. Then, I added a position at 5,000 dollars and wanted to fill the position at 3,000 dollars. Unfortunately, I couldn't buy the pending order.

Although BTC has skyrocketed and plummeted, over time, it has been hitting record highs.

As long as I buy BTC to go long or spot, I can make money, but if I go short, I will basically suffer a big loss.

Now the price of BTC has reached 90,000 U.S. dollars, and it has dropped from 126,000 U.S. dollars last year, which is equivalent to entering a bear market cycle.

Looking back at the history of BTC, from an air currency to the behemoth it is today, there are two waves of relatively obvious benefits. The first is that the funds brought by the exchange have pushed BTC to 40,000 dollars, and the second is that the amount of funds brought by ETH has pushed BTC to a record high of 120,000 dollars.

Whether BTC can rise depends on whether there is money coming in. If there is more money coming in and less money going out, it will rise, and vice versa.

It will indeed be difficult to make money with BTC in the future, but the sharp rise and fall will still exist. I personally guess that there is still room for 3-5 times the price. The maximum price is estimated to fluctuate between 50,000 and 150,000 knives.

If you want to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point, I can clearly say that it is impossible. So the best strategy is to never fill a full position, keep a half position, add points if it falls too much, and subtract points if it rises too much. This is the best strategy I can think of now.